Canada is ‘on notice’: Ottawa turns to Saab as U.S. defense pressure builds

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“It puts Canada … on notice,” Thompson said, that the U.S. sees Canada benefiting more from the arrangement and not pulling sufficient weight when it comes to ensuring Western Hemisphere defence.

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So, is this a major policy shift?

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Shimooka said he doesn’t think this reflects a new Canada strategy. In fact, he suggested that Canada was low on the list of priorities.

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“Canada-U.S. relations and defence are probably not even among the top 10 issues that are confronting the Department of War,” he said.

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Rather than being a big policy change, Shimooka suggested that Colby had taken an opportunity to flex some muscle with a board that doesn’t really have a “heavy policy community,” because there would likely be little pushback.

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“This was a bit of policy entrepreneurship from Colby,” he added.

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Thompson says there’s more to it than that. She believes it underscores how the U.S. is actively reassessing the balance of allied contributions. 

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Rhetoric matters as much as spending, she said, citing Carney’s Davos speech.

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“The rhetorical signals are a choice … and those choices … can come with consequences.”

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Aligning with U.S. strategic priorities — both verbally and with defence spending — matters to the Trump administration, as does improved burden sharing, Thompson explained.

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Getting to 5 per cent GDP on NATO defence spending needs to happen more quickly than by 2035, according to Thompson.

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She also noted that the White House is frustrated about Canada being a major contributor to Ukraine because it undermines some of the demands Washington has tried placing on Kyiv — while taking away from what Ottawa could be spending on allied defence.

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“[The pause is] … a gentle tug — are you more in the European theatre … or in the Western Hemisphere?” Thompson said.

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Canada’s slow speed in hitting the 2 per cent mark has been an irritant for years. That capability gap, said Shimooka, is a real and longstanding issue, and Washington’s frustration is not just political theatre. 

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There’s a lack of deployable, modern capabilities, he said. Two per cent was merely “the minimum,” he said, not a solution.

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Shimooka pointed to how Canada’s procurement delays and its mixed signals over whether it will continue buying U.S. F-35s, for example, irritate the White House.

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Ottawa may see its review of whether to continue purchasing F-35s, as opposed to the Swedish Gripen fighter jet, as a way to gain leverage in trade negotiations, but the U.S. sees things differently, he explained.

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That political gamesmanship, he said, “does not go over well with the Trump administration.”

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“It’s not really a bargaining chip.”

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The F-35 vs. Gripen decision remains up in the air, but Wednesday’s announcement about the talks with Saab suggests that Carney is looking to diversify with European defence products.

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Shimooka cautioned against jumping to any conclusions, noting that the prime minister’s press release said Ottawa was merely entering negotiations. Should talks lead to purchasing, he said, it would be terrible for U.S.-Canada relations.

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“It’d be a disaster. It would really wreck relations,” he said, “and it wouldn’t just be with the Trump administration,” noting that Democrats would also oppose such a move.

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Shimooka also said the U.S. determines whether European purchases can be made interoperable with NORAD systems.

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Kavanagh applauded the announcement and said this is exactly what Canada should be doing. She said integrating them into NORAD would be doable.