Bradford closing in on Chow in Toronto mayoral race: new research

Brad Bradford, the millennial planner-turned-councillor, makes his second bid for Toronto mayor, vowing to tackle crime, congestion and soaring costs while challenging Olivia Chow's record. (Photo: DAVE GORDON)

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A little more than three weeks from Toronto’s municipal election, Brad Bradford is closing on incumbent mayor, Olivia Chow.

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Chow holds an edge at 38.1 per cent of voters, according to Mainstreet Research. Bradford follows with 32.2 per cent among the voters.

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The other candidates trail far behind. Chris Alexander sits at 7.2 per cent, Sarah McVie at 2 per cent, then Odessa Paloma Parker at 1.8 per cent, and finally the other candidates deemed by Mainstreet as “someone else” (2.7 per cent) rounding out the field.

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With 16% undecided and 14% of voters reporting they might change their minds, including more than a quarter of Chris Alexander voters, the race is close.

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Chow leads more comfortably among voters under 55 years-old, with a lead of 7 points among those under 35. She leads by 11 points among voters between 35 and 44, and 17 points among those between 45 and 54.

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Among older voters, however, Bradford leads Chow by 7 per cent with voters between 55 and 64. He trails by just 2 per cent among voters over 65, which Mainstreet says is a statistical tie.

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With turnout expected to be higher among older voters, Bradford’s edge could be a significant factor in the final outcome.

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With regard to election issues, over three quarters of voters point to affordability as extremely or somewhat important (78 per cent). The affordability concerns for almost 3 in 10 include spending on public and transit safety (29.8 per cent). A plurality of voters said any tax increases should go toward paying for affordable housing and fighting homelessness (23.9 per cent).

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“The race remains Olivia Chow’s to lose,” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research. “With 16 per cent remaining undecided and another 14 per cent saying they might change their minds on how to vote, the next Mayor of Toronto is far from certain at this point” he added.

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“We will keep a close eye on this important race and other as we approach election day” he concluded.

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