A military underfunded, undermanned and underprepared

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Members of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) on a bus during Operation NANOOK-NUNAKPUT, its annual Arctic operation at Resolute Bay, Nunavut on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /Postmedia

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“We were digging a hole,” he said. “That two per cent (of GDP) starts to slow down the digging of the hole. But it doesn’t fill it up.”

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Coates said much of the new defence spending had gone toward increasing pay for its existing soldiers rather than an increase in troop size. Canada ranks 29 among 30 NATO countries measured for military personnel as a share of population, ahead of only Luxembourg, which notably devotes more than half its defence budget to equipment, he said.

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The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates that meeting NATO’s target of 3.5 per cent of GDP for core defence capabilities by 2035 would require about $160 billion in annual spending, roughly 2.5 times the 2025 level. Including a further 1.5 per cent of GDP for security-related spending would bring the total to at least $228 billion. Defence would account for nearly 30 per cent of federal spending, up from about 11 per cent, according to the report.

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Poland has doubled defence spending as a share of GDP between 2021 and 2025, to 4.5 per cent, as it relies heavily on foreign suppliers, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s report said. In Canada, Canadian-controlled private firms account for just 18 per cent of the defence industry’s $17.3 billion in annual sales.

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The Parliamentary Budget Officer has flagged years of unspent defence capital funds as equipment nears its end-of-life date. Fixing old equipment to return it to operations becomes an ongoing challenge as parts for 30-year-old jet planes “are not sitting on a shelf somewhere waiting to be purchased,” Norman said.

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Reservists from 31 Brigade that are part of the Land Task Force march at the staging area of the Operation NANOOK-NUNAKPUT on Sept. 9, 2026. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /Postmedia

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Meanwhile, Coates said Canada keeps too few fighter jets on alert and lacks airborne early-warning aircraft. “We’re just being lazy about it,” he said.

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“I think Canadians might assume their military can operate shoulder-to-shoulder alongside our allies, and I think that’s questionable,” Coates added. He said Canada still has gaps in deploying long-range strike weapons, anti-armour and air-defence systems, and the ability to fly drones in large numbers.

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“The people are trained and motivated and committed,” he said. “I just don’t think they’re equipped and resourced.”

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Norman said Canada’s procurement system was built to “pace, regulate and control” spending and is not well suited to handling a rapid increase, while also criticizing how the Canadian Forces has sometimes over-engineered its equipment. The Canadian Navy’s River-class destroyer, which he described as a concept more than 20 years old whose design has still not been finalized, is “arguably the wrong platform for the wrong time,” he said.

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Retired Royal Canadian Navy vice-admiral Mark Norman speaking at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy in June 2025. Photo by Gavin Young/Postmedia

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Both Coates and Norman pointed to Poland, Germany and the Baltic states as examples Canada could follow to improve their civil defence, procurement and ties to their domestic defence industry.

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Coates also wants Ottawa to be more transparent about what its defence spending delivers and explain which threats it is preparing to confront. “You don’t ever hear a discussion of the threats,” he said.

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At a time when public support for defence spending is stronger than Norman has ever seen, further delays could cost Canada military capabilities, lives and the confidence of its allies, he said.

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“You cannot surge trust,” he said. “You either have it, or you don’t.”

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