5 Reasons Why Moana Is Tracking to Box-Office Disaster

Disney’s live-action Moana sails into theaters on Friday, July 10, 2026, a few months before the tenth anniversary of the animated original. As of writing, the pre-release tracking looks rather stormy for the new movie. According to one box office tracking data, opening weekend projections have slipped to roughly $60-70 million, while another mentions an even lower number at $45-60 million (via CosmicBook).

On a reported production budget of $200 million or more, that would be a worrying start for the Dwayne Johnson-starring movie. According to the survey firm The Quorum, Moana has an 80% awareness, a high number for any movie, yet its interest score is stuck at just 49. It is considered one of the weakest awareness-to-interest ratios.

In plain terms, almost everyone knows the movie is coming. But far fewer people want to see the movie. Here are five reasons Moana is tracking toward a possible box-office disaster.

5 The Animated Moana Fans See No Point in a Live-Action Remake

A still from Moana | Credits: Walt Disney Animation Studios

The original Moana came out just ten years ago, and it hasn’t faded from memory. It had a 95% critical rating and an 89% audience rating, with the movie earning $687.2 million at the box office. It was both a critical and commercial success.

More importantly, the animated franchise is thriving. Moana 2 arrived in 2024 and became a monster hit, crossing $1.059 billion globally. Dwayne Johnson has now confirmed that an animated Moana 3 is in development.

That’s the problem. When the animated version is this popular and still going strong, many fans simply don’t see the point of a near-identical live-action retelling arriving barely a decade later. It is perhaps the shortest gap between any Disney original and its remake. To a lot of viewers, it reads less like a fresh vision and more like a quick cash grab.

4 Family Audience Would Rather Pick Toy Story 5 or Minions 3 Over Moana

A still from Toy Story 5 | Credits: Pixar/Walt Disney Studios

As mentioned, Moana has the weakest awareness-to-interest gap of any big release being tracked. That tells you families aren’t especially eager for this one. Here’s the catch. When parents do take their kids to the movies this month, they have animated options sitting right there. Moana opens straight into a family-film traffic jam.

Pixar’s Toy Story 5 launched to a huge $159.6 million at the domestic box office. With decent ratings and an undying love for its brand, the movie is still pulling crowds in its fourth weekend. Meanwhile, Minions & Monsters arrived on July 1, and even though it has the weakest opening in the franchise, it still poses a big threat to this live-action movie.

3 The Rock’s Appearance Comes Off as a Joke

Dwayne Johnson as Maui in Moana | Credits: Walt Disney Pictures

The loudest early criticism, once the trailer dropped, has been aimed at Dwayne Johnson himself, specifically, how he looks as Maui. Fans adored his voice performance in the animated films, where the demigod’s larger-than-life design worked perfectly.

But translating that animated character into live action, complete with a big curly wig, struck many viewers as gimmicky. The reaction was harsh enough that the trailer racked up heavy dislikes on YouTube, and a chunk of the conversation shifted to whether Johnson was even the right choice to physically play Maui. When your main star becomes a punchline before release, that enthusiasm gap shows up in the tracking.

2 The $200 Million Budget Sets Up the Movie for Failure

Catherine Laga’aia as the titular character in Moana | Credits: Walt Disney Pictures

A reported $200 million-plus budget for live-action Moana is a huge red flag in itself. The movie would now need to earn roughly $500 million worldwide just to get out of the red zone. That’s a steep bar for any film, and a real gamble given how uneven Disney’s recent live-action results have been.

It’s arguably a self-inflicted wound, given the involvement of Dwayne Johnson as a star and producer. It is likely that the costs could’ve ballooned, when a faithful remake could plausibly have been made for closer to $100 million. The hugely profitable Lilo & Stitch cost around that much (via The Numbers).

1 Disney’s Remake Machine Is Frustrating Fans

Catherine Laga’aia in Moana | Credits: Walt Disney Pictures

Finally, there’s remake fatigue. For a good part of the last decade, Disney has been mining its animated vault for live-action remakes, and audiences are increasingly tired of it. The results are wildly inconsistent.

On the win side, Aladdin topped $1 billion, and Lilo & Stitch crossed $1 billion on a modest $100 million budget. But the misses have been brutal. The Little Mermaid underwhelmed at $569 million worldwide, and Snow White became a full-blown disaster, grossing only about $205 million against a reported $250 million budget.

[Note: All box office figures are accurate as of July 8, 2026]

Against that backdrop, many fans now greet each new remake with a sigh rather than excitement. Moana is sailing straight into that exhaustion, and it may pay the price.

Do you think Moana can beat these odds and still win big at the box office? Let us know in the comments below!

Moana is set to arrive in theaters on July 10, 2026.