Would-be strongman wins first round in Colombia with promise of ‘iron fist’

Colombia's presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, of the Salvadores de la Patria movement, speaks to supporters behind bulletproof glass after the first exit poll results in the presidential election at the Ventana al Mundo monument in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 31, 2026. Photo by Rodrigo BUENDIA/AFP via Getty Images

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BOGOTA, Colombia — Trump loyalist Abelardo de la Espriella won a surprise victory in the first round of Colombia’s presidential elections, with voters choosing his promised “iron fist” on organized crime in the mould of El Salvador’s wildly popular strongman Nayib Bukele.

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De la Espriella, a lawyer and political “outsider,” defeated leftist continuity candidate Senator Iván Cepeda by 43.7 per cent to 40.9 per cent on Sunday. The two candidates face a runoff election on June 21.

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The third-place candidate, Senator Paloma Valencia, who was backed by Colombia’s most influential conservative, Álvaro Uribe, took just 6.9 per cent of the vote and immediately backed de la Espriella.

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The results, which defied traditional polls, reveal a country deeply polarized. Colombians’ biggest concern in these elections was public security, along with corruption and the economy.

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The first quarter of 2026 was the most violent since Colombia negotiated a peace agreement with the now-demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas in 2016.

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Conflict in northeastern Colombia displaced about 80,000 people in 2025, the highest level in a decade.

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Javier Florez, from the think tank Fundación Ideas Para la Paz, told National Post that Colombians are “gripped by a fear that the security conditions will continue to deteriorate.”

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The candidates have proposed diametrically opposed security fixes.

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Cepeda is one of the architects of President Gustavo Petro‘s “Total Peace” initiative, in which the government sought to simultaneously negotiate with a variety of armed groups.

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The program has fallen well short of expectations, with armed groups using the opportunity to expand and strengthen their networks.

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Cepeda admitted disappointment but promises to continue negotiations, arguing the conflict cannot be ended through military force alone.

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By contrast, de la Espriella has run on an “iron fist” approach to the problem of organized crime, proposing the construction of 10 mega-prisons and the militarization of the territory.

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Cepeda and his running mate, Aida Quilcué, placed first in the rural regions of southern and western Colombia experiencing the worst violence, suggesting those most affected by insecurity have not given up on dialogue.

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Insofar as the election has been a referendum on the government’s security strategy, the largest group of Colombians have voted for “a rejection of and rupture with the policy of negotiations with armed groups,” according to Florez.

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Felipe Botero, from the department of political science and global studies at Universidad de los Andes, told National Post that the details of de la Espriella’s proposed militarization are unclear.