With Trump looming, Pakistan braces for foreign policy challenges in 2025

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan entered a caller year in a authorities of comparative calm aft tumultuous 30 months, marked by volatile politics, a arguable election, and an system teetering connected the verge of collapse.

As home authorities stabilises and system hopes for a turnaround successful South Asia’s second-most populous nation, overseas argumentation and information challenges are apt to look arsenic the country’s astir pressing concerns this year.

Analysts foretell a pugnacious 2025 for Pakistan, arsenic it manages ties with its contiguous neighbours, allies and adversaries crossed the world, arsenic good arsenic with the United States, wherever Donald Trump is acceptable to instrumentality to powerfulness aboriginal this month.

Most of Pakistan’s overseas argumentation and information challenges originate owed to its neighbourhood, chiefly Afghanistan to its westbound and archrival India connected the east.

Violence by equipped groups and rebels intensified crossed Pakistan aft the Afghan Taliban seized Kabul successful 2021. In 2024, equipped attacks claimed the lives of astir 700 instrumentality enforcement personnel, making it 1 of the deadliest years successful a state of 240 cardinal people.

The attacks were chiefly carried retired by the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), an equipped radical that considers the Afghan Taliban its ideological twin. Separate rebel attacks targeted sites related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62bn megaproject that has brought Islamabad and Beijing person than ever arsenic governmental and economical allies.

Christopher Clary, a non-resident chap astatine Stimson Center, a US-based nonprofit, and an subordinate prof of governmental subject astatine the University astatine Albany, says Pakistan faces its “most severe” nationalist information situation “in astatine slightest a decennary and perchance since the 1990s”.

“Pakistan has nary expansive strategical prime different than to get its economical location successful bid and repair its relationships with different large powers and determination neighbours. This apt entails years of work, and it is not wide that Pakistan has years to bash that enactment earlier the location tumbles in,” Clary told Al Jazeera.

Here’s a lowdown connected the countries that volition beryllium the absorption of Islamabad’s overseas argumentation this year:

China

Pakistani authorities often tout their “deeper than the oceans, taller than the mountains” relationship with China. But 2024 revealed cracks successful that relationship.

Attacks connected Chinese citizens and interests culminated, forcing a uncommon nationalist rebuke by Beijing’s envoy to Islamabad. “It is unacceptable for america to beryllium attacked doubly successful lone six months,” Jiang Zaidong said astatine an lawsuit successful Islamabad successful October.

Muhammad Faisal, a overseas argumentation adept connected China, warns that portion China volition proceed to supply fiscal enactment to Pakistan, immoderate further enlargement of the CPEC task successful the state is unlikely.

“Pakistan indispensable skillfully navigate mounting unit from Beijing for a ‘Joint Security Mechanism’, fundamentally putting Chinese information unit connected Pakistani territory which, successful turn, would marque them the people of militants complicating existing information measures,” Faisal told Al Jazeera.

Chinese soldiers manning the country’s projects connected Pakistani ungraded would correspond an admittance of Islamabad’s information failures, summation the hazard of Chinese nationals being targeted, and besides amplify the politically delicate anticipation of Chinese fighters sidesplitting Pakistani nationals.

Meanwhile, experts besides fearfulness that Trump’s adversarial stance towards China whitethorn propulsion Beijing to request nationalist enactment from Pakistan, which volition past beryllium forced to locomotion a diplomatic tightrope successful bid to debar annoying Washington, an aged ally.

Trump has taken a consistently hardline presumption connected China, with his archetypal word seeing a commercialized warfare betwixt the 2 economical powers. In his 2nd stint, the US person has pledged to enforce up to 60 percent tariffs connected Chinese imports.

“But since Pakistan isn’t precocious connected Trump administration’s planetary agenda, determination is simply a metallic lining. Yet, uncertainty is the communal denominator of some of Pakistan’s challenges with China,” Faisal said.

Kamran Bokhari, elder manager astatine the US-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said China’s frustrations with Pakistan stem from its extended investments successful the CPEC yielding fewer returns. He added that China’s predicament could enactment to the US’s advantage.

“China is already rather disappointed with Pakistan and the narration has been terse for immoderate time. But Beijing is successful a hole due to the fact that it is knee-deep successful Pakistan, acknowledgment to CPEC concern of billions, without getting immoderate payment from it. So, China being successful a quagmire successful Pakistan is bully for the US,” Bokhari told Al Jazeera.

The United States

Pakistan’s relations with the US spell backmost to its independency from British regularisation and emergence arsenic a caller federation successful 1947. But Islamabad-Washington ties person mostly pivoted connected however Pakistan aided US policies successful the region, chiefly successful Afghanistan, which saw the Soviet penetration successful the 1970s and 1980s, oregon the US-led “war connected terror” pursuing the 9/11 attacks successful 2001.

With the Afghan Taliban backmost successful powerfulness successful Kabul, the Pakistan-US strategical concern successful the South Asian portion has dwindled. While the US is present little invested successful Afghanistan, Pakistan has gradually moved towards China for economic, subject and technological needs.

Hassan Abbas, prof astatine the National Defense University successful Washington, DC, believes Pakistan indispensable “carefully navigate” its ties with the US amid tensions with China and India. He says “while nervousness is evident” connected Pakistan’s part, melodramatic changes successful the narration look unlikely.

“Security issues and determination challenges, specified arsenic instability successful Afghanistan,” Abbas told Al Jazeera, “are apt to predominate bilateral interactions.” Abbas is besides the writer of The Return of Taliban: Afghanistan aft Americans Left.

Bokhari said Pakistan remains a debased precedence for the US, which has much pressing planetary issues specified arsenic the Russia-Ukraine warfare and the respective Middle East conflicts to tackle.

“Right now, I don’t spot immoderate tensions rising to important levels betwixt the 2 countries and Pakistan is playing its cards precise safely. In DC, the cognition astir Pakistan is that it is simply a weak, messy authorities which needs to fig retired its ain concern archetypal earlier thing else,” helium said.

India

India remains the biggest overseas argumentation conundrum for Pakistan.

While constricted interactions hap astatine multilateral forums, relations person been practically frozen for years. Tensions implicit Kashmir further intensified aft New Delhi stripped Indian-administered Kashmir of its constricted autonomy successful 2019, triggering a beardown condemnation by Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan regularisation implicit parts of Kashmir, but assertion the Himalayan portion successful its entirety, making it 1 of the world’s longest and bloodiest subject conflicts.

“The asymmetry with India is progressively stark, and Pakistan has fewer options to compel India to instrumentality it earnestly that don’t endanger different Pakistani overseas argumentation goals,” expert Clary told Al Jazeera, adding that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “little ideological interest” successful rapprochement with Pakistan and “sees it arsenic impractical during a play of home instability” successful Pakistan.

Abdul Basit, a erstwhile Pakistani envoy to India, views the Kashmir contented arsenic a continuing deadlock requiring behind-the-scenes diplomacy. “India has shown nary willingness for flexibility aft the law amendment,” helium told Al Jazeera, referring to the Modi government’s scrapping of Article 370, the instrumentality that granted Indian-administered Kashmir its partial autonomy.

With India getting person to the West, chiefly the US, implicit their communal force successful China, Basit thinks Islamabad indispensable find ways to prosecute with New Delhi.

“Otherwise, we volition support moving from 1 stalemate to the adjacent and ne'er beryllium capable to enactment our narration connected a trajectory of gathering mean relations. That, for me, is the crux of the substance erstwhile it comes to India,” the retired envoy said.

However, Bokhari of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy thinks it could beryllium India that mightiness beryllium successful the US crosshairs this twelvemonth and find itself nether unit implicit its rivalry with China.

“India has overmuch person and applicable ties with Iran, wherever it is gathering a port. It is besides buying lipid from Russia, which is waging a warfare successful Ukraine. So they [India] person a bigger accidental of being enactment nether unit by the incoming [Trump] administration,” helium said.

For Pakistan to pull US attention, according to Bokhari, it indispensable connection a strategical worth arsenic it did during the Soviet penetration of Afghanistan and during the post-9/11 US wars.

“If you privation US attention, you person to connection them thing that could importantly make an involvement for the US, and lone past you tin get attention,” helium said. “It wasn’t that the US liked Pakistan oregon became champion friends, it was conscionable that Pakistan provided a purpose.”

Iran

The twelvemonth 2024 turned retired to beryllium a cataclysmic twelvemonth for Iran, arsenic it saw its geopolitical interests successful the Middle East endure dense losses and Israel adjacent launching nonstop attacks connected its territories connected respective occasions.

But the twelvemonth began with Iran launching attacks wrong Pakistan’s Balochistan province, citing an equipped radical called Jaish al-Adl arsenic a menace to its information successful borderline areas. The onslaught prompted a swift subject retaliation by Pakistan. But the tensions betwixt the chiefly Muslim neighbours did not escalate, with Tehran resorting to diplomacy to resoluteness the issue.

Umer Karim, researcher astatine the University of Birmingham successful the United Kingdom, foresees the “uneasy rapprochement” continuing, arsenic good arsenic the emergence of caller challenges with Trump’s instrumentality to the White House.

Karim warns that a deterioration successful Pakistan-Iran ties could worsen borderline security, emboldening Baloch separatists who are reported to person hideouts successful Iran. The Baloch rebels person been warring for decades for a abstracted homeland.

“Pakistan volition prosecute affirmative engagement with Iran to debar further antagonism amid rising home violence,” said Karim.