Chad’s presidency attacked: Coup attempt, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters?

N’Djamena, Chad – Chad’s superior metropolis is inactive smarting aft deadly weapon battles erupted connected Wednesday nighttime betwixt information forces and much than a twelve equipped fighters who brazenly stormed the statesmanlike palace. At slightest 19 radical were killed.

Businesses and schools opened arsenic accustomed connected Thursday, and astir radical went to work, but determination was a much heightened information beingness connected the streets of N’Djamena – a metropolis already teeming with soldiers. Military tanks dotted the metropolis centre, and roads starring to the palace analyzable were closed.

The assault comes weeks aft arguable parliamentary elections, successful which absorption parties boycotted the vote. They accused President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s military-turned-civilian authorities of trying to legitimise his rule.

The onslaught besides followed Chad’s astonishing expulsion of hundreds of French troops successful December. France, a erstwhile assemblage powerfulness and a adjacent ally, has operated subject bases successful the state for decades.

Conflicting reports astir who Wednesday’s assailants mightiness beryllium are floating astir connected societal media, adding to the disorder arsenic authorities officials effort to marque airy of the threat. Here’s what we know:

What happened?

A radical of 24 heavy equipped men attacked the president’s bureau astatine astir 8:45pm (19:45 GMT) connected Wednesday, authorities spokesperson and Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah said, speaking connected Chad authorities TV.

The men were equipped with knives, not guns, helium said. At slightest 18 of the attackers were killed successful the ensuing weapon battle, portion 1 subordinate of the Chadian information unit besides died. Three different information officials were injured, the curate added, 2 of them seriously.

Videos of the aftermath of the shooting showed bloodied bodies connected the floor, adjacent to a achromatic pickup truck. Koulamallah said the attackers were killed aft managing to penetrate the campy surrounding the presidency.

“I was impressed by the subject deployment. We person a precise bully army, and the Chadians tin slumber soundly. Our state is good guarded,” helium said.

President Deby was successful the statesmanlike analyzable astatine the clip of the attack. Hours earlier astatine the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deby had met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was successful the state for a authorities visit.

At slightest six radical person been arrested successful transportation with the attack, though it’s unclear yet who they are. The curate said investigations are ongoing.

Members of the Chadian information forces ballot successful legislative, provincial and section elections successful Koundoul connected December 28, 2024 [Joris Bolomey/ AFP]

Why is the state tense?

The landlocked Central African federation has agelong experienced instability successful the signifier of rebel movements, equipped groups, and coups d’etat. Although Chad is affluent successful oil, a stagnant system and harsh clime enactment it connected the database of Africa’s poorest countries.

Those who prehend powerfulness often enactment hard to quell rebellions by distributing jobs to erstwhile rebels and governmental absorption members, Ulf Laessing, caput of the Sahel programme astatine German deliberation vessel Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera. “Chad’s fund is spent connected patronage to unafraid authorities survival,” helium said.

Deby, a subject general, seized powerfulness successful April 2021 aft rebels killed the strongman president – his father, Idriss Deby Itno – connected the battlefield. Before his death, the older Deby ruled Chad with an robust fist for 30 years.

Although the subject authorities promised and delivered connected elections, the younger Deby’s tenure has been characterised by turbulence. He has struggled to pull fashionable enactment successful the country, arsenic galore judge helium seized powerfulness unconstitutionally and simply extended the Deby dynasty. Experts picture his government’s December determination to expel French troops arsenic a mode to summation enactment amid widespread anti-France sentiments successful erstwhile West and Central African colonies.

Deby’s authorities is besides accused of crackdowns: After young radical and absorption parties took to the streets successful October 2022 to protestation a hold successful the promised elections, information forces clamped down connected them, sidesplitting 128 radical and arresting galore more.

In May 2024, Deby swept the statesmanlike polls, winning much than 60 percent of the ballot to the choler of absorption groups that described the workout arsenic fraudulent.

In December, the state held arguable parliamentary elections for the archetypal clip since 2015. Although authorities officials hailed the ballot arsenic a cardinal measurement towards ending subject rule, it was marked by debased turnout and absorption allegations of fraud. Several governmental parties boycotted the vote.

Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby astatine his inauguration astatine the Palace of Arts and Culture successful N’Djamena connected May 23, 2024 [File: Joris Bolomey / AFP]

Who attacked and what are authorities saying?

There are respective conflicting theories astir who mightiness person been liable for Wednesday’s attack. Some person blamed the equipped radical Boko Haram, portion others accidental it mightiness beryllium a subject coup.

Boko Haram fighters person launched incursions into the state since 2013, operating from their basal successful the Lake Chad Basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the radical was primitively founded successful Nigeria, porous borders allowed it to grow operations. In 2015, Boko Haram termination bombers targeted constabulary buildings and markets successful N’Djamena successful a bid of attacks. More than 50 radical were killed, and much than 100 were injured.

Security sources told the AFP and Reuters quality agencies that Wednesday’s onslaught was apt by the group.

“It wouldn’t beryllium far-fetched for Boko Haram to effort doing this, though this is simply a monolithic information lapse astatine the palace,” Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based information expert astatine Control Risks, an quality firm, told Al Jazeera.

“They mightiness privation to retaliate against Operation Haskanite,” she added, referencing a information cognition President Deby personally launched successful October. The purpose is to way and neutralise hundreds of Boko Haram fighters who attacked and killed much than 40 Chadian troops successful the Lake Chad Basin country connected October 28.

However, authorities officials person downplayed the Boko Haram theory. In an interrogation with Chad’s authorities broadcaster hours aft the attack, spokesperson Koulamallah said the attackers were “probably not” Boko Haram members oregon portion of an organised equipped group. He described them alternatively arsenic drunken “Pieds Nickeles” – a notation to a French comic featuring hapless crooks.

But a random brace of crooks would find it hard to onslaught the spot of powerfulness successful N’Djamena. The city, connected immoderate day, is crawling with camouflage-wearing, gun-toting soldiers hanging from subject trucks.

Could it beryllium different equipped groups?

Several different equipped groups endanger Chad’s stability, notably rebel fighters of the Front for Change and Concord successful Chad (FACT), located adjacent the Libyan border.

The group, led by longtime rebel Mahamat Mahadi Ali, aims to topple the Chadian authorities nether Deby.

Late president Deby succumbed to wounds suffered during a conflict against the rebels arsenic they pushed towards N’Djamena successful 2021.

At the time, FACT vowed to onslaught again aft the younger Deby took power. “Chad is not a monarchy,” the radical said successful a connection posted online. “There tin beryllium nary dynastic devolution of powerfulness successful our country,” the connection added, with FACT threatening to depose the caller leader.

On the different hand, Ochieng said, reports of a coup could besides beryllium credible.

Wednesday’s attacks could beryllium an “inside job” with the purpose of “assassinating President Deby” and taking implicit power, she added.

Coups are not uncommon successful Chad. The precocious Deby seized powerfulness by deposing the dictator Hissene Habre.

In 2008, thousands of fighters of the rebel radical Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) nether person Mahamat Nouri attacked N’Djamena to depose Deby but were repelled.

Did the French unit exit origin a vacuum?

Analysts accidental Chad is apt to look much attacks similar this one. Armed groups mightiness effort to instrumentality vantage of a information vacuum that could unfastened up arsenic French troops proceed with their exit from the country.

Although Chad signed a woody with Hungary successful October and is expected to invited 200 Hungarian soldiers who volition enactment and bid section forces, it’s not wide erstwhile the Hungarians volition arrive.

Chad is successful a “fragile” state, Laessing said. “Deby asking the French to permission successful December was a gamble. It gave him a popularity boost,” helium said. “But obviously, the French subject was the large authorities extortion helium had, not conscionable by their unit presence, but besides quality sharing.”

The erstwhile French colony hosted France’s past subject bases successful the Sahel, but astatine the extremity of November, ended defence and information agreements with Paris, calling them “obsolete”. About 1,000 French subject unit were stationed successful the state and are successful the process of being withdrawn aft France fell retired with 3 different Sahelian countries governed by subject governments hostile to Paris: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Ochieng said the information that Chad was downplaying an onslaught by Boko Haram could mean immoderate officials mightiness privation to blasted an outer histrion for sabotaging their efforts.

“I fishy determination volition beryllium opportunistic groups that volition effort to marque it look similar France is sabotaging Chad,” she said. “We’ve seen akin claims successful Niger, Burkina Faso, close aft their respective coups and demands for French forces to leave.”