Where is Cameroon’s Paul Biya — and why is his health a banned topic?

Cameroon’s President Paul Biya’s month-long lack from the nationalist oculus is causing aggravated speculation astir his wellness and raising fears of a post-Biya powerfulness conflict among governmental factions successful the cardinal African country.

Biya, who has agelong faced wellness suspicions, often disappears for weeks connected end, lone to resurface again. The agelong absences negatively interaction the day-to-day moving of a state facing aggregate challenges, including a secessionist warfare successful the west, and an armed conflict successful the north, analysts say.

Here’s what to cognize astir Biya’s disappearances and wherefore Cameroonians are anxious astir a post-Biya period:

Why are determination speculations?

Biya has not appeared successful nationalist since September 8, aft helium attended the China-Africa forum, on with respective of the continent’s leaders, successful Beijing.

Ouverture officielle, ce 5 septembre 2024, du Forum sur la Coopération Sino-Africaine.
J’ai suivi avec attention, le programme en dix points exposé par S.E. Xi Jinping dans le cadre de la imaginativeness d’un partenariat stratégique planetary avec l'Afrique.#PaulBiya#Cameroun#FOCAC2024 pic.twitter.com/Cq6OSp8Au9

— President Paul BIYA (@PR_Paul_BIYA) September 5, 2024

The president has cancelled attendances astatine aggregate high-level engagements wherever helium was expected. He did not be the United Nations General Assembly successful September. He besides did not look astatine the International Organisation of La Francophonie, a acme of French-speaking countries, which was held connected October 4 successful Paris.

Civil nine groups and absorption leaders successful Cameroon person called for clarity connected Biya’s whereabouts. Christian Ntimbane, a lawyer and person who intends to tally successful the coming 2025 statesmanlike elections, wrote an unfastened missive to officials saying, “If helium is connected vacation, accidental so. If helium is sick, accidental that too.”

Before his disappearance, Biya was scheduled for a summertime of diplomacy, starting with the July opening ceremonial of the Olympics successful Paris. On August 15, helium besides attended a ceremonial marking the 80th day of the Allied parties’ landing successful Provence, confederate France, during the 2nd World War.

Analysts accidental his lack is telling. Especially erstwhile the state stands astatine a crossroads: a secessionist warfare for an autarkic Ambazonia successful the English-speaking westbound has raged since 2017, starring to the decease of astatine slightest 6,000 people, and the displacement of 700,000 others according to the International Crisis Group.

In the north, the equipped radical Boko Haram, primitively based successful neighbouring Nigeria, has for years expanded its operations, launching large-scale incursions into Cameroon. Meanwhile, galore radical successful the state are jobless, arsenic the state faces precocious nutrient and vigor prices from its reliance connected volatile lipid revenue, according to the World Bank.

What has the authorities said?

Officials initially attempted to play down Biya’s lack from nationalist events, saying that helium is successful bully wellness successful Switzerland – wherever helium is believed to person gone to aft the forum successful Beijing.

Communications Minister Rene Sadi said successful a connection aboriginal successful October that speculations and rumours astir the president’s wellness person “no transportation with reality” and are “pure fantasy”. Sadi added, “The caput of authorities is doing good and volition instrumentality to Cameroon successful the adjacent fewer days.”

However, those assurances person had small effect. On October 9, Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji banned Cameroonian media from “debate” and reporting connected Biya’s health, saying it was a information issue, and that it “disturbed the tranquility” of Cameroonians.

In a missive addressed to determination governors of the country’s 10 provinces, Nji said further discussions of the president’s wellness would beryllium punished, informing that anyone violating the bid would “face the afloat unit of the law”. Nji besides ordered the governors to acceptable up “monitoring cells” to show online content.

Journalists and media successful the state and beyond person condemned the prohibition arsenic an effort to soundlessness the press. Although it’s not uncommon for journalists to beryllium targeted oregon arrested successful the country, a circumstantial regularisation banning treatment of Biya’s wellness is caller territory, analysts say.

“Trying to fell down nationalist information connected specified a large contented of nationalist value is outrageous,” Angela Quintal, Africa programme caput astatine the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a media rights advocacy group, said successful a statement.

Cameroon’s Paul Biya is Africa’s second-longest-serving person [File: Lintao Zhang/Pool via Reuters]

How communal is this for Cameroon?

This is not the archetypal clip the president has been absent for weeks, nor is it caller for Cameroonians to look uncertainty implicit his health.

At 91, Biya is Africa’s second-longest-serving leader. He came to powerfulness successful 1982 and is lone Cameroon’s 2nd president since independency from France successful 1960. His 42-year reign is 2nd lone to 82-year-old Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has held powerfulness successful Equatorial Guinea for 45 years.

Biya’s agelong absences from nationalist oculus and his palace successful Cameroon’s superior Yaounde person earned him the nickname “roaming president”. A five-star edifice successful Geneva, Switzerland, is known to beryllium Biya’s favourite destination. It’s speculated that helium undergoes aesculapian attraction successful the European country, but besides goes connected buying sprees. His wife, Chantal Biya, is celebrated for her costly taste.

By 2018 Biya had, excluding authoritative trips, spent the equivalent of 4 and a fractional years distant connected “brief backstage visits” to Europe, according to an investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). In 2006 and 2009, the president spent arsenic overmuch arsenic a 3rd of the twelvemonth extracurricular the country, according to investigators. The OCCRP recovered that a day’s enactment astatine his preferred edifice successful Geneva, on with that of his authoritative entourage, costs astir $40,000.

The prolonged lack “creates a governance vacuum, characterised by decision-making paralysis and accrued bureaucratic inefficiency,” ideology activistic Kathleen Ndongmo told Al Jazeera. “No 1 truly knows who is starring the country. This deficiency of wide enactment consistently erodes nationalist trust, fuels governmental instability, and undermines accountability,” she added.

In 2016, erstwhile lawyers and teachers from the Anglophone regions successful the westbound protested against alleged favoritism by the predominantly French-speaking government, Biya was absent—even arsenic information forces opened occurrence connected the protesters. The crackdown escalated into a warfare successful 2017 betwixt separatist groups and the Cameroonian government, which is inactive continuing.

Biya’s absences person lone go much pronounced, with astir citizens having to trust connected rare, televised addresses to spot him.

Cameroonian information forces patrol streets successful the Anglophone portion of Cameroon [File:AFP]

A governmental conflict successful the making?

With the president’s accrued absences, immoderate successful the state are anxious astir a imaginable struggle betwixt factions of the country’s governmental elite who are looking to regularisation successful a post-Biya Cameroon.

Although Cameroon has a multi-party system, and determination are periodic wide elections, Biya’s ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) has ever swept the polls and dominated the government.

But Biya is not known to person groomed anyone successful peculiar arsenic a imaginable successor. There are beardown speculations that his lad Franck Biya, mightiness beryllium the favoured candidate, but the lad is known to support a debased profile, revealing small astir immoderate governmental ambitions. Last October, the 53-year-old visited the tract of a landslide that killed 30 radical successful Yaounde – though helium occupies nary authoritative position. He did not talk to the property during the visit, adding different furniture of confusion.

Opposition parties person spoken retired powerfully against a continued Biya dynasty. Meanwhile, section reports suggest that wrong the ruling CPDM party, leaders person neither endorsed nor spoken retired against a imaginable Biya inferior candidacy. Some officials of the enactment and its galore smaller allied parties, person ‘urged’ Biya elder to tally again for different term.

“Cameroon is an opaque cesspool wherever adjacent the cardinal players are incapable to articulate the ‘big picture’ manoeuvres that they’re ensnared in,” ideology activistic Ndongmo said, adding that there’s already a “civil war” wrong the authorities implicit succession.

“The scheming is relentless, with camps changing by the day. The post-Biya epoch volition not beryllium beauteous if a faction doesn’t doesn’t extremity up being a wide victor by then,” she said.