VUONG: When activists twist the truth, we all pay the price

Published Sep 03, 2024  •  3 minute read

Toronto Police bike patrols the area around the South Riverdale Community Health Centre and safe injection site, Friday July 14, 2023. Photo by Jack Boland /Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

Mark Twain once wrote “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

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As Canadians, we tend to respect authorities and experts who we believe are acting in good faith. This trust extends to statistics that might be cited, but the reality is anybody with a cause can find figures to support their argument or, if motivated enough, they will manipulate data to tell the story that they want to tell.

Unfortunately, twisting the truth is what the NDP and drug activists have been doing at the expense of the communities with drug consumption sites, and those who want to break the cycle of addiction but are not getting the help they need.

For example, if you wanted to paint the picture that there was no impact to crime in neighbourhoods with these sites, you could focus on the year-over-year change from 2018 — when drug consumption sites opened — to 2023.

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That’s what activists did. They boast that the crime statistics show assault increased slightly more in neighbourhoods without sites than those with sites. In fact, robbery even went down by nearly four times more in neighbourhoods with sites — wow!

But this is deeply flawed for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the impact of these drug consumption sites is highly localized, which is why the Ford government rightfully created a 200-metre safety zone to protect schools and daycares. But the publicly available Toronto Police crime data is aggregated into giant neighbourhoods, which can be multiple square kilometres. Furthermore, you have sites like the one at 168 Bathurst Street, which is on the border of the West Queen West and Wellington Place neighbourhoods. While technically in the former, you need to examine both neighbourhoods to get an accurate understanding of the impact on crime.

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The other deficiency that activists conveniently gloss over is the fact that incidents of crime are moved to the nearest intersection to protect victims’ privacy, which could move it away from the site and have it recorded in another neighbourhood’s data set, like in the case of 168 Bathurst Street.

Given the limitations of the publicly available data, the more accurate and honest approach would have been a comparative analysis of the rate of crime per 100,000 people in each neighbourhood. Those results tell a story that activists don’t want you to hear.

In 2023, the city-wide Toronto average crime rate for assaults was 810.7 per 100,000 people. Let’s look at the rate of assaults in the neighbourhoods with drug consumption sites:

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– Downtown Yonge East: 3,639.7 (349% higher than the average)
– Kensington-Chinatown: 2,270.5 (180% higher)
– Regent Park: 1,129.5 (39% higher)
– South Riverdale: 1,124.9 (39% higher)
– Wellington Place: 1,485.9 (83% higher)
– West Queen West: 713.5 (12% lower)
– Average of affected neighbourhoods: 113% higher rate of assaults

Repeat the same analysis for other major crime indicators and the data would validate what residents living in these neighbourhoods have been reporting: they experience more break-ins (76% higher than the average), more robberies (97% higher), more homicides (45% higher), more shootings (40% higher), and more thefts from their vehicles (26% higher).

It’s quite the coincidence that the method trumpeted by the NDP and drug activists is the most inaccurate and deficient but conveniently reinforces their flawed argument.

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The metric that would best reflect the localized impact of drug consumption sites is calls to police as you can geo-locate where they are coming from to within 200 metres of the sites. Unfortunately, that is not available on Toronto Police’s Open Data portal and is only available through Freedom of Information requests.

Luckily, our neighbours in Leslieville got that data for the summer of 2023 and the statistics are staggering:

– 60% increase in reports of assault
– 900% increase to priority one (most urgent) calls
– 750% increase to priority two calls

For my constituents living by the 168 Bathurst Street drug consumption site, I have requested the same localized data for 2018 to 2023 from the Toronto Police Service, who have confirmed that they are working on compiling the data and advised that I can expect to hear an update within the next couple of weeks.

Unlike the activists, I will share the data when I get it, the methodology, and any limitations, so that you can come to your own conclusion, because when people twist the truth, we are all worst off.

— Kevin Vuong is the Independent Member of Parliament for Spadina—Fort York. The son of refugees, he is the youngest MP of Asian heritage elected to the 44th Parliament. He also serves as a naval reserve officer in the Canadian Armed Forces.

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