Voters in Abbotsford-Mission to play outsized role in future of B.C. politics

There's a lot riding on the upcoming byelection in Abbotsford-Mission for the B.C. Conservative party. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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Several weeks before John Rustad took the B.C. Conservative party from zero seats to the brink of power in the 2024 provincial election, he visited a dairy farm in Abbotsford-Mission, posing for photos on a red tractor.

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With him were Ian Paton and Bruce Banman, along with Reann Gasper — all key players in the drama that has rocked the Conservative party in recent weeks.

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Like the people in the photo, Abbotsford-Mission is set to play an outsized role in B.C. politics, with a byelection later this month that could determine fate of the B.C. Conservative party and its new leader.

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Earlier this week, several Conservative MLAs told Postmedia reporter Alex Lazenby they are watching the outcome of the Sept. 26 vote, which will see party leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who is running after Gasper stepped aside, take on former NDP MLA Pam Alexis, as well as candidates from the newly formed CentreBC party and the Green party.

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One MLA said Findlay must match or beat the 55 per cent of the vote received in the 2024 election by Gasper, who is now Findlay’s chief of staff, or the party could continue to fracture. Another MLA, who was more supportive of Findlay, said that a defeat, or even a narrow victory, would call into question whether the party can compete in battleground ridings such as Surrey.

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While party turmoil seems to have turned the byelection into a litmus test for Findlay’s leadership, at least one political expert warned against reading too much into the results, as the nature of a byelection creates “so many crosswinds.”

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“Normally we don’t see the future, or soul, of a party hinging on a byelection,” said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of B.C. “I think there’s a risk of putting too much emphasis on it.”

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His best advice for those determining whether they will continue to support the Conservative party is to “look at the leader, not the byelection.”

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But in Abbotsford-Mission, where whomever is elected will represent them in Victoria, voters must do both.

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In some ways, the riding is a microcosm of B.C. It includes downtown Mission, suburban neighbourhoods in east Abbotsford, and part of Matsqui Prairie, a rural area dotted with farms. Voters have sent both Liberal and NDP MLAs to the legislature in the past. But Abbotsford-Mission is also distinct, its residents united by concerns more specific to the eastern Fraser Valley than Metro Vancouver or other regions.

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Voters in Abbotsford-Mission may determine the fate of the B.C. Conservative party in an upcoming byelection. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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Alex Mitchell, CEO of the Abbotsford Chamber of Commerce, said the riding plays a pivotal role in the B.C. economy, with many of the issues it is facing relevant to the entire province, including transportation, tariffs on manufacturing and agriculture, and business taxes.