Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank

After slowing Russia’s complaint of beforehand implicit the past respective months, Ukraine whitethorn person tipped the scales successful April and recaptured much of its onshore than it lost, according to an investigation of battlefield positions.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based deliberation tank, said it had observed grounds that Russian forces suffered a nett nonaccomplishment of 116 quadrate kilometres (45 quadrate miles) during the month.

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That fig counted lone territory firmly held by each side, not what it called “grey zones”, wherever some Russian and Ukrainian soldiers held positions.

“Russian forces person been utilizing infiltration tactics successful portion to make the cognition of continuous Russian advances crossed the beforehand and to enactment Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes,” the ISW said. “Russian forces, however, bash not power these infiltration areas.”

The ISW has observed a progressive slowing of the Russian complaint of beforehand by astatine slightest two-thirds implicit the past 18 months.

It recovered that Russian forces seized an mean of 2.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a time successful the archetypal 3rd of 2026, compared with an mean of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) successful the aforesaid play successful 2025.

(Al Jazeera)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk, successful eastbound Ukraine, which contains a “fortress belt” of heavy fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka.

Russian assaults present “noticeably increased” successful April, said Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii.

Moscow has claimed to beryllium gradually overrunning Konstiantynivka, but the ISW observed that it had “infiltrated successful 10.14 percent of Kostiantynivka and precocious successful lone 0.7 percent of its eastbound outskirts”.

Ukraine besides said Russia suffered higher casualties than its complaint of recruitment could replenish for the 5th period running.

“In April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated oregon earnestly wounded,” said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, adding that Russia was “gradually drowning successful losses”.

In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian quality had obtained Russian documents reporting that 62 percent of casualties were deaths – a higher complaint than Ukraine oregon anyone other had antecedently assumed.

(Al Jazeera)

It is not wide erstwhile Ukrainian forces reached that level of lethality, but it seems to beryllium a caller development.

Fedorov said connected May 6 that past twelvemonth “Russia was losing astir 14,000 soldiers per month,” meaning deaths, since full casualties averaged 34,833. That would suggest caller advances successful Ukrainian tactics.

Zelenskyy precocious said Ukraine aimed to treble down connected mid-range attacks successful the Russian rear, striking supplies earlier they tin beryllium brought to carnivore connected the battlefield.

“In April, the fig of strikes implicit 20km (12 miles) was doubly arsenic precocious arsenic successful March, and 4 times arsenic precocious arsenic successful February,” said Fedorov.

The gross war

Ukraine struck respective refineries and lipid facilities during the past week arsenic portion of a strategy of depriving Russia of export revenue.

It struck the Tuapse refinery connected the Black Sea for the 4th clip successful 2 weeks connected May 1, and the Perm refinery 1,000km (620 miles) wrong Russia connected the aforesaid night.

On May 2, Ukraine utilized aboveground drones to raid 2 Russian lipid tankers extracurricular the offloading larboard of Novorossiysk connected the Black Sea. On the aforesaid night, Zelenskyy said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) struck a rocket carrier, a patrol vessel and a tanker successful the larboard of Primorsk successful the Baltic Sea, besides damaging the lipid terminal.

On May 5, Ukraine struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez successful the Leningrad region. The Reuters quality bureau reported that the refinery stopped operations aft 3 of its 4 distillation towers were damaged.

(Al Jazeera)

Ukraine has besides targeted subject equipment.

Zelenskyy said Flamingo drones had covered a region of 1,500km (930 miles) to onslaught a shaper of navigation modules for the Russian navy, aerial unit and rocket forces successful Cheboksary connected May 5.

Ukraine besides precocious struck respective Su-57 combatant jets and Su-34 bombers astatine the Shagol Airfield successful Chelyabinsk, much than 1,600km (994 miles) wrong Russia.

Russia and Ukraine person fixed conflicting reports connected the harm to Russian lipid revenues.

“By the astir blimpish estimates, the aggressor authorities has mislaid astatine slightest $7 bn since the opening of the twelvemonth solely from our effectual sanctions against the Russian lipid manufacture and refining: From hits, downtime, and delays successful shipments,” Zelenskyy said connected May 1.

Bloomberg reported connected April 30 that mean output per refinery had dropped to 4.69 cardinal barrels a day, the lowest since 2009.

But Russia had a antithetic assessment, wrote the autarkic Russian outlet Meduza. The Ministry of Finance connected May 6 said mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12bn successful April comparative to March. Of this, $10bn was from oil, whose terms has soared during the US-Israel warfare connected Iran.

A nonmigratory walks astatine the tract of a Russian drone attack, amid Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine, adjacent the metropolis of Chornomorsk, Odesa region, Ukraine, May 3, 2026 [Nina Liashonok/Reuters]

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov precocious told a Kremlin newsman helium expected May lipid revenues to beryllium $2.7bn higher.

Fedorov besides raised the alarm, saying Russia’s windfall from precocious lipid prices was estimated astatine $150m a day, and could magnitude to $40bn successful 2026.

It was unclear whether Zelenskyy’s $7bn fig was an estimation of gross deprivations implicit and supra that windfall.

Meduza wrote that Moscow would walk fractional of April’s lipid gross subsidising lipid companies “to support gasoline prices debased and to modernise and repair lipid refineries”, suggesting Ukraine was inactive taking a toll.

Diplomacy triumphs

Ukraine has faced absorption to its European Union backing and rank bid from EU members Hungary and Slovakia, but successful the past week, its narration with some countries improved.

Zelenskyy said connected May 2 helium had invited Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico to sojourn Kyiv and had received an invitation to Bratislava.

Fico had vetoed Ukrainian talks to articulation the EU successful June 2025, but relented successful September for reasons helium ne'er explained.

Hungary’s erstwhile Prime Minister Viktor Orban had besides vetoed those talks, and his successor, Peter Magyar, has not yet lifted that veto, saying helium volition clasp a referendum connected the matter.

In the meantime, Magyar returned to Ukraine’s Oschadbank $82m successful currency and valuables Orban had seized successful March connected suspicion that the 7 Ukrainians carrying it were money-laundering. Zelenskyy hailed it arsenic a “constructive and civilised step”.

But unblocking Ukraine’s accession whitethorn beryllium easier said than done. A canvass by the European Council connected Foreign Relations (ECFR) recovered that 54 percent of Hungarians inactive reason the move. Majorities besides proceed to reason Hungary’s information successful EU fiscal assistance to Kyiv, arsenic they proceed to reason the shipment of weapons to Ukraine via Hungary.

Hungarian voters “might beryllium underestimating however important opening Ukraine’s accession negotiations are for Hungary’s European partners”, the ECFR said, “or they are simply not linking it to Hungary normalising its relations with Brussels.”