Amid Ukraine’s daring assaults, Russia scales back Victory Day celebrations

May 9 is simply a venerated date connected the Russian calendar. The day of the Soviet Union’s triumph implicit Nazi Germany successful World War II is usually commemorated with a expansive subject parade extracurricular the Kremlin, connected Moscow’s Red Square.

“For modern Russia, it’s the main vacation of the year,” said Oleg Ignatov, elder Russia expert astatine Crisis Group. “There are 2 main holidays successful Russia, the ninth of May and the New Year. And if you asked Russians, what is the main holiday, I deliberation they would reply you that it’s the ninth of May.”

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This year, however, for the archetypal clip successful astir 20 years, determination volition beryllium nary tanks, missiles oregon inferior cadets successful the parade. The determination to clasp backmost connected showcasing subject instrumentality comes arsenic a effect of heightened information fears implicit the warfare successful Ukraine.

However, unit from higher-level subject academies volition inactive instrumentality portion successful the procession connected foot, portion the aerial information of the programme volition stay unchanged – an aerobatic show, followed by a squad of Sukhoi Su-25 combatant jets coating the entity successful the tricolours of the Russian flag.

In authoritative statements, the Kremlin has referred to “the existent operational situation,” and threats of “Ukrainian violent activity.”

Ukrainian drones are present striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory connected an astir regular basis, hitting targets specified arsenic lipid facilities and airfields. A caller spate of drone attacks connected the lipid refinery successful Tuapse, connected Russia’s Black Sea coast, has caused an ecological catastrophe and prompted the evacuation of the town.

“Drones are so the superior means to onslaught Russia’s territory,” explained Olha Polishchuk, probe manager for Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus astatine Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). “They are comparatively cheap, modifiable and tin question agelong distances … Both Ukraine and Russia person switched to utilizing chiefly drones for their attacks.

He said that since 2025, drone strikes “completely overshadowed different attacks”.

“Their usage has been effectual overall; astir drones are intercepted but if you nonstop capable of them, immoderate volition scope the target.”

Fears of ‘political and intelligence consequences’

Security and anti-drone defences person been tightened successful the superior since the Ukrainian equipped forces began sending drones determination in 2023, with 1 striking the Kremlin itself.

Mobile net has been periodically unopen disconnected successful Moscow, Saint Petersburg and different areas of the state successful the days moving up to the event, with providers citing “security reasons”.

“Moscow has precise beardown aerial defence, which includes short-range surface-to-air rocket systems, different rocket systems, tiny arms and physics warfare systems,” explained Polishchuk. “It is simply a multilayered strategy located some astir and wrong the city. In the past, authorities person unopen down cellular networks successful Moscow to complicate drone navigation.

“Ukraine precise seldom attacks Moscow due to the fact that the aerial defence would necessitate a precise ample swarm of drones for immoderate onslaught to land, but besides due to the fact that determination are plentifulness of different strategically applicable targets that bash not transportation specified a precocious hazard of civilian casualties.”

Nevertheless, the Victory Day ceremonies contiguous a wide risk. Such a attraction of troops and vehicles is susceptible not lone connected the time of the parade itself but earlier and after, too: aft all, that hardware indispensable beryllium stored somewhere.

“Of course, they attraction astir drones which tin alert from Ukraine, but astir of these drones are being intercepted,” Crisis Group’s Ignatov told Al Jazeera. “They are much acrophobic of groups of radical utilizing tiny drones which are delivered to Russia, and utilized against targets wrong Russia, similar successful Operation Spiderweb [in 2025] … Even if 1 oregon a mates of tiny drones deed a subject parade, it whitethorn not origin a casualty, but it volition person a demonstrative and intelligence effect. I deliberation what they attraction astir is the governmental and intelligence consequences of this.”

A Russian information serviceman sits atop an all-terrain infantry mobility conveyance amid accrued information measures up of Victory Day, marking the day of triumph implicit Nazi Germany successful World War II, adjacent the Kremlin successful cardinal Moscow, Russia, connected May 7, 2026 [Reuters]

The Victory Day parade is simply a contented from the communist era, an juncture connected which the citizenry could drawback a glimpse of Soviet statesmen waving from atop Lenin’s tomb, arsenic good arsenic a accidental for the then-superpower to amusement disconnected its subject might. But erstwhile the USSR collapsed successful December 1991, the parades were shelved for astir 2 decades until they were revived by President Vladimir Putin successful 2008.

Since the commencement of the full-scale warfare successful 2022, the Victory Day parade has been scaled backmost again. Only a solitary Soviet-era T-34 vessel symbolically rolled crossed Red Square successful 2024, though different types of vehicles, specified arsenic armoured unit carriers and mobile rocket launchers, were present.

Last year’s proceedings, however, packed a small much pomp. Not lone did the parade diagnostic modern tanks, the TOS-2 Tosochka dense flamethrower systems and Iskander ballistic missiles, but besides Russian troops marching alongside Chinese soldiers.

Chinese person Xi Jinping watched the amusement sitting beside Putin, 1 of 27 heads of authorities successful attendance, including Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. The turnout seemed to bespeak that, contempt planetary condemnation of the penetration of Ukraine, Moscow was not isolated.

‘Victory implicit Nazi barbarism’ oregon a ‘cynical distortion of history’

“A solemnisation of the Soviet and Allied decision of Hitler’s Nazi-Fascist alliance, Victory Day is the astir ineffable day connected Russia’s governmental calendar,” said British historiographer Geoffrey Roberts.

“As ever, Victory Day volition beryllium celebrated arsenic a Soviet arsenic good arsenic a Russian triumph – the effect of the communal conflict of each the peoples of the multinational USSR, not slightest millions of Ukrainians. Victory Day is for the Russian authorities a time of multiethnic unity. It is besides a reminder of the planetary antifascist unity – of the Soviet-Western conjugation during World War II that unneurotic saved the satellite from Nazi barbarism.”

The Eastern Front of the 2nd satellite war, known arsenic the Great Patriotic War successful Russia, occupies a cardinal spot successful Russian nationalist memory. About 27 cardinal Soviet citizens, including Russians, mislaid their lives successful the conflict, much than immoderate different country, and it was the Red Army’s soldiers that hoisted their emblem implicit the Reichstag successful Berlin successful 1945. The German surrender was officially finalised connected May 9.

This representation is evoked by Putin’s authorities today, claiming it is warring “Nazis” connected the battlefields of Ukraine.

Spectators, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, be a subject parade connected Victory Day, marking the 80th day of the triumph implicit Nazi Germany successful World War II, successful Red Square successful cardinal Moscow, Russia, connected May 9, 2025 [Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via Reuters]

“It appears that successful modern Russia, 9 May has been twisted to really enactment assertive behaviour and militarisation,” Polishchuk said.

“It is simply a large root of pridefulness which supports the conception that Russia is strong, undefeated, and volition not tolerate disrespect from anyone. The much communal ‘never again’ successful notation to WWII became ‘we tin bash it again’ successful Russia arsenic a fashionable Victory Day slogan. This posturing becomes adjacent much important during an ongoing war, arsenic it supports different benignant of world – 1 wherever Russia has not made a mistake by invading Ukraine and is not presently failing to execute its subject objectives.”

According to the open-source quality task Oryx, much than 14,000 Russian tanks, APCs and different combat vehicles person been destroyed, captured, abandoned oregon different mislaid since the commencement of the full-scale penetration successful 2022.

Modern Ukraine considers Victory Day, arsenic celebrated successful Russia today, a cynical distortion of past and seeks to discourage overseas dignitaries from attending, Polishchuk added.

“Ukraine is mostly much level-headed than Russia successful sticking to targets that person a subject objective, but this is so 1 of the instances wherever the [potential] onslaught appears mostly symbolic,” she said. “Ukraine whitethorn determine to prevention resources this clip and not onslaught Moscow – it could beryllium a sane prime since aerial defence volition beryllium connected precocious alert and information concerns whitethorn already discourage participation, yet Russian authorities person nary prime but to effort to trim the hazard regardless.”