Tunisia: What has Kais Saied achieved economically in seven years?

For Tunisian taxi operator Houssam Oueslati, ostentation has a terms tag: The outgo of keeping his car connected the road.

In 2018, helium paid astir 35 Tunisian dinars ($13) for motor oil. Today, the aforesaid acquisition tin outgo adjacent to 100 dinars ($34). To support his income, helium has had to enactment longer hours, spending much of his time down the instrumentality to screen rising operating costs.

His acquisition points to a broader question facing Tunisia astir 7 years into Kais Saied’s presidency: What has changed successful the economy, and however overmuch of that alteration has improved people’s lives?

Saied came to powerfulness amid wide vexation with the governmental establishment, promising a fairer and much accountable state. Since then, Tunisia has faced the economical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, volatile planetary nutrient and vigor prices, and geopolitical turmoil.

These shocks person analyzable the country’s recovery, but they bash not settee the question of however efficaciously the authorities has responded. The system continues to grow, and wide unemployment has eased from its pandemic-era peak. Yet nutrient prices stay a burden, unemployment among young radical is high, and nationalist finances permission the authorities with constricted country to manoeuvre.

For Tunisians specified arsenic Oueslati, what matters astir is not the header maturation fig but whether their net screen the outgo of living.

The rising outgo of making a living

The terms of the motor lipid Oueslati buys has accrued by astir 186%, according to figures helium provided to Al Jazeera. For a taxi driver, this is not an isolated disbursal but portion of the outgo of staying successful business.

The unit extends good beyond transport.

Tunisia’s yearly ostentation complaint reached 5.6% successful September 2026, up from 5.4% successful August and 4.8% successful January, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

Food and beverage prices roseate by 8.4% twelvemonth connected year. Poultry prices accrued by 16.5%, effect by 16.3% and lamb by 14.6%. Core inflation, which excludes nutrient and energy, stood astatine 4.9%.

The Tunisian authorities says the system has proven resilient [Al Jazeera]

These figures assistance explicate wherefore ostentation tin stay achy adjacent erstwhile its header complaint appears moderate. Inflation measures however rapidly prices rise, not whether they are affordable. When prices emergence faster than incomes, purchasing powerfulness falls. And adjacent erstwhile ostentation slows, households bash not automatically retrieve what they person lost: Prices mostly stay precocious unless they fall.

Economist Ridha Chkoundali argues that the cumulative effect of terms increases is cardinal to knowing the unit connected Tunisian families.

According to his estimates, mean yearly ostentation was 6.8% betwixt 2015 and 2021, compared with 8.1% betwixt 2021 and 2026, indicating stronger inflationary pressures successful the second period.

The authorities has taken steps to easiness the fiscal pressure. The Central Bank chopped its cardinal involvement complaint doubly successful 2025, bringing it down to 7%. But little borrowing costs cannot, alone, reconstruct purchasing powerfulness eroded by higher prices.

Chkoundali besides argues that tighter entree to recognition has near consumers with less ways to negociate expenses. Loans, banking facilities and cheques erstwhile allowed immoderate households to dispersed payments implicit time, helium says. Changes successful financing conditions and cheque regulations person narrowed those options.

For families with small savings, essentials present devour much of the household budget, portion entree to short-term fiscal enactment whitethorn beryllium much limited.

The situation is not simply to bring ostentation down, but to marque mundane beingness much affordable and springiness households a accidental to rebuild their fiscal security.

Growth without capable jobs

Tunisia’s system grew by 2.3% twelvemonth connected twelvemonth successful the 2nd 4th of 2026, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Growth reached 1.4% compared with the erstwhile quarter.

The 2026 Finance Law had projected yearly maturation of astir 3.3%, mounting a much ambitious benchmark for the year.

For Chkoundali, the spread betwixt the fund projection and the quarterly figures highlights a deeper problem: Growth matters to households lone erstwhile it translates into greater production, investment, employment and income.

The labour marketplace illustrates the challenge.

Tunisia’s wide unemployment complaint stood astatine 14.9% successful the 2nd 4th of 2026, down from 15.3% successful the aforesaid play a twelvemonth earlier. It had reached 17% successful 2020, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

But the header complaint conceals a harsher world for younger Tunisians. Unemployment among radical aged 15 to 24 reached 35.4%, portion the complaint among assemblage graduates stood astatine 26.6%.

For galore young people, the obstacle is not simply uncovering work. It is uncovering a occupation that offers reliable income, stableness and a way towards independence.

If economical enlargement fails to make capable productive jobs, its benefits volition stay constricted for ample sections of the population.

Chkoundali identifies anemic concern and declining accumulation arsenic large constraints. He besides warns that the government’s reliance connected home borrowing could marque it harder for backstage businesses to get financing, grow and hire.

According to figures helium cited, home borrowing amounted to astir 7 cardinal dinars ($2.3bn) successful some 2024 and 2025, with 11 cardinal dinars ($3.7bn) successful borrowing astatine the opening of 2026.

The interest is that the state’s financing needs could vie with backstage businesses for disposable credit. Domestic borrowing does not automatically undermine growth; its effects beryllium connected the presumption of financing and however the wealth is spent. But if businesses conflict to unafraid funds for investment, the consequences tin beryllium felt successful accumulation and employment.

Tunisia faces a hard balancing act: financing the state’s obligations portion creating conditions for backstage endeavor to turn and supply jobs.

For workers specified arsenic Oueslati, the consequences are immediate. When operating costs emergence but net bash not support pace, longer hours tin go a mode of lasting inactive alternatively than moving ahead.

The combat against speculation

Saied has made combating monopolies and speculation a cardinal portion of his economical agenda, presenting the run arsenic a mode to support consumers, curb abusive practices and beforehand societal justice.

The nonsubjective speaks to nationalist vexation implicit rising prices. But critics reason that the authorities person not ever adequately distinguished betwixt speculative stockpiling and the retention indispensable to support indispensable goods available.

Warehousing, inventory absorption and organisation are integral to functioning proviso chains. Restrictions that disrupt these systems without providing alternatives can, critics warn, lend to shortages alternatively than bring prices down.

The hazard is peculiarly important successful markets that beryllium connected imports and organisation networks operated by backstage companies and public-sector entities. When stocks tally debased oregon proviso channels are disrupted, goods tin go harder to find adjacent erstwhile authorities involution is intended to support consumers.

Enforcement whitethorn beryllium indispensable to tackle abusive practices, but it cannot regenerate the infrastructure and commercialized systems needed to support goods moving.

Protecting consumers truthful requires much than confronting speculation. It besides requires policies that sphere reliable supplies, enactment accumulation and guarantee indispensable goods scope the market.

In a statement, the Democratic Current enactment criticised what it described arsenic a refusal to face economical realities, arguing that attributing failures to conspiracies would deepen the country’s problems alternatively than resoluteness them.

The government’s interventions indispensable yet beryllium judged by their results. A argumentation designed to support consumers indispensable beryllium assessed not lone by its stated purpose, but besides by its effects connected prices and availability of goods.

Debt and the limits of nationalist spending

The authorities faces different constraint successful its efforts to enactment economical enactment and shield households from rising costs: The load of financing the state.

Tunisia’s nationalist indebtedness roseate from 67.8% of gross home merchandise successful 2019 to 84.9% successful 2024, earlier falling to 82.1% successful 2025, according to Finance Ministry data. The 2026 Finance Law projects a ratio of astir 83.4%.

Debt levels unsocial bash not find whether nationalist finances are sustainable. Borrowing costs, repayment schedules, authorities gross and economical maturation besides matter. But important financing needs tin permission the authorities with little flexibility to respond to caller shocks.

The Central Bank of Tunisia has chopped involvement rates doubly to 7% [Al Jazeera]

Debt servicing competes with public-sector wages, societal spending, subsidies and investment. The authorities indispensable conscionable existing obligations portion backing services and projects that could fortify the system implicit the longer term.

Chkoundali argues that the state’s financing needs person narrowed its options. The question is not simply however overmuch the authorities borrows, but whether its financing choices permission capable resources for productive investment.

That unit becomes much acute erstwhile planetary vigor prices rise.

The outgo of shielding consumers from lipid prices

Tunisia’s 2026 Finance Law assumed a Brent crude terms of astir $63.30 per barrel. By the extremity of June, the mean terms had reached astir $92.60, according to figures cited successful the report.

The summation raised the imaginable outgo of vigor imports and substance subsidies, putting further unit connected nationalist finances.

Fuel subsidies amounted to 2.427 cardinal dinars successful the archetypal fractional of 2026, equivalent to $826m. That represented 48.6% of the allocation for substance subsidies nether the Finance Law.

Public concern expenditure implicit the aforesaid play totalled 1.665 cardinal dinars, oregon astir $566.6m.

The figures amusement however the authorities indispensable equilibrium competing demands connected the budget. Subsidies shield consumers from immoderate of the contiguous effects of higher vigor prices. But erstwhile lipid costs much than expected, maintaining that extortion becomes much expensive, perchance leaving less resources for nationalist investment.

Cutting subsidies excessively abruptly could transportation much of the load to households and businesses. Maintaining them, meanwhile, tin intensify fiscal unit erstwhile planetary prices emergence sharply.

The consequences whitethorn widen beyond authorities spending. A larger vigor import measure increases request for overseas currency and whitethorn enactment unit connected the dinar and foreign-exchange reserves, peculiarly if export net and home accumulation neglect to offset the further costs.

Chkoundali besides points to commercialized imbalances involving partners including Algeria and Egypt arsenic portion of the wider outer challenge.

He argues that policymakers should hole aggregate scenarios erstwhile estimating financing needs and subsidy costs, alternatively than trust connected a azygous oil-price forecast. Such readying could assistance the authorities expect marketplace changes earlier they spot unexpected strain connected the budget.

For Tunisia, the situation is to shield households from outer shocks without undermining the concern needed to marque the system much productive and little susceptible to them.

What did Saied inherit?

Saied’s supporters reason that his economical grounds cannot beryllium assessed without considering the problems that preceded his presidency.

Houssam Ben Ahmed, a governmental activistic who supports the president, says Saied inherited a state already successful superior diminution crossed respective sectors. He describes the measures taken connected July 25, 2021 arsenic “an implicit necessity to prevention the state”, citing what helium sees arsenic the fragmentation and deterioration of governmental and economical life.

From this perspective, the disruption that followed was portion of a confrontation with longstanding problems, alternatively than grounds that Saied’s policies unsocial were liable for the country’s difficulties.

Unemployment rates stay high, astir 15%, among young radical and graduates [Al Jazeera]

The statement points to an important favoritism successful assessing immoderate government’s economical record. The pandemic, planetary marketplace volatility and geopolitical tensions person affected Tunisia, portion structural weaknesses and governmental disputes agelong predate Saied’s presidency.

But inherited problems and outer shocks bash not region the request to analyse the decisions made successful office. They signifier portion of the discourse against which the government’s choices and results indispensable beryllium judged.

Has the authorities improved conditions for investment? Has it strengthened home production, created jobs and protected surviving standards? And wherever improvements person occurred, person they been capable to conscionable nationalist expectations?

Supporters emphasise the difficulties Saied inherited. Critics constituent to persistent unit connected household budgets and constricted opportunities for young people. A meaningful appraisal indispensable look beyond some claims to the evidence: What has improved, what has deteriorated and however overmuch tin reasonably beryllium attributed to authorities policy?

The trial of economical progress

Nearly 7 years into Saied’s presidency, Tunisia’s economical grounds remains mixed. The system continues to grow, and wide unemployment has eased from its pandemic-era peak. Yet nutrient prices stay high, joblessness among young radical persists, and nationalist finances look competing demands.

External shocks person made betterment harder. But enduring a situation is not the aforesaid arsenic emerging from it. An system tin upwind successive shocks without delivering the improvements successful income, employment and information that radical expect.

A much convincing betterment would mean stronger productive investment, much unchangeable jobs, higher home accumulation and incomes that support gait with the outgo of living. It would besides necessitate the authorities to negociate its financing needs without sacrificing the concern connected which aboriginal maturation depends.

For Oueslati, the statement comes down to the outgo of keeping his taxi connected the road. Every summation successful operating expenses eats into his earnings. Every further hr down the instrumentality is clip spent trying to marque up the difference.

One driver’s acquisition cannot find the occurrence oregon nonaccomplishment of an full economical programme. But it highlights what nationalist statistic tin obscure: Whether radical tin crook their enactment into a much unafraid modular of living.

For Oueslati, advancement would mean being capable to support his taxi connected the roadworthy without having to enactment ever longer hours simply to marque ends meet.