Trump won this reliably red state by double digits. Now a deadlocked race is bringing him back

LUBBOCK, Texas — President Donald Trump is heading back to Texas in the final stretch of the midterm campaign in an attempt to rally Republican voters in a too-close-for-comfort Senate race.

Trump will campaign in Corpus Christi on Tuesday morning before heading to Lubbock, deep in West Texas, alongside Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton.

The two-stop visit comes exactly one week before Election Day and with early voting already underway. And Republicans are confronting an unusually competitive Senate contest in a longtime red-stronghold state that Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points just two years ago.

A new Fox News poll shows the closely-watched race against Democrat State Rep. James Talarico in a deadlock.

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High prices are shaping the midterm debate as voters weigh the cost of everyday life. (Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images)

Tuesday’s stops mark Trump’s fourth visit to the Lone Star State since Labor Day. The president spent two days in Dallas in early September for the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention. He was back in Texas on Oct. 1 for an event at the Peterbilt truck manufacturing plant in Denton, then returned six days later for a campaign rally in San Antonio with Paxton.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Paxton, the state attorney general and a MAGA firebrand, and Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters in the race to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn.

Last month, Talarico held a two-point edge over Paxton, 51%-49%.

The showdown between Paxton, who downed Cornyn earlier this year in a contentious GOP primary battle that went into overtime, and Talarico, a former public school teacher and state lawmaker, is looking to end Democrats’ more than 30-year statewide losing streak in Texas. And the face-off is one of roughly a dozen Senate contests that will determine if the GOP holds on to its slim Senate majority.

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Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is looking to break Republicans’ decades-long hold on statewide office in Texas. (Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)

Trump's visit will put both sides of the Senate fight in Lubbock on the same day. Talarico is scheduled to campaign at Texas Tech on Tuesday evening, as Trump rallies with Paxton at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center.

The dueling appearances come as Paxton and Talarico make sharply different closing pitches to voters.

Paxton has sought to tie Talarico to the national Democratic Party and portray him as too liberal for Texas, as his campaign points to past controversial comments by the candidate. Meanwhile, Talarico has capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with Trump's handling of the economy.

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Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican U.S. Senate candidate, during a "Come and Take It Tour" campaign event in San Antonio, Texas, on Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (Christopher Lee/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

The latest Fox News poll found Democrats hold an enthusiasm advantage, with 69% saying they are extremely interested in the election compared with 61% of Republicans. Paxton also faces some resistance within his own party, with 90% of Republicans backing him compared with 98% of Democrats supporting Talarico.

Paxton has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered him over the past decade, including a 2023 vote by the Texas House of Representatives to impeach him. Paxton was eventually acquitted of all charges by the state Senate. Paxton is also currently dealing with a contentious divorce, with his wife citing "biblical grounds" based on "recent discoveries" as she filed last year to end their marriage.

Beyond the Senate contest, Texas is also central to the battle for control of the House after Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year to create additional GOP opportunities.

The election will also test whether Trump's 2024 gains among Hispanic voters carry into the midterms. Hispanic likely voters favor Talarico 64%-34%, according to the Fox News poll, a shift from 2024, when Hispanic voters in Texas favored Trump by one point, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis.

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Texas remains a key piece of the Republican Party’s strategy as the GOP fights to maintain control of Congress. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Pocketbook concerns are also weighing on voters.

More than twice as many say they are financially worse off than two years ago as say they are better off, 43%-20%. Those who say they are worse off break heavily for Talarico, while voters who say they are better off or about the same favor Paxton.

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With voting underway and the Senate race deadlocked, Trump’s Texas swing will test whether the Republican coalition that delivered him the state two years ago will show up again — this time without him on the ballot.