Trump’s Bombardier threat is an ‘own goal’ for Canada-U.S. defence ties, analysts say

A Bombardier Global 8000 jet after an entry-into-service celebration event at the Bombardier Aircraft Assembly Centre in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, on Monday, Dec. 8, 2025. Photo by Laura Proctor /Bloomberg

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — As both Canada and the United States enjoyed a day off and family BBQs on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump was busy posting on his social media platform. 

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In one update, he declared that Canada’s aerospace giant, Bombardier, could no longer sell in the United States.

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“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States,” the president wrote. He complained that Canada blocked Gulfstream Aerospace from doing business in Canada — a reference to a certification issue earlier this year that has since been resolved.

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The 114-word missive also included a number of “America First” rallying cries about buying, flying, and sailing American — and enjoying American liquor.

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Bombardier reported total revenue of $9.55 billion in 2025, with over half generated by sales to U.S. customers.

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The timing of Trump’s Labour Day post was telling, with 12 hours before Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on more than 700 U.S. products entering Canada — covering CA$27.6 billion in annual imports — were set to take effect at 12.01 am Tuesday. They have since been implemented.

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So was Trump’s post a sign that he was rattled by Ottawa’s refusal to back down over tariffs? At the very least, it was more evidence that the president is willing to go extreme for leverage, analysts say.

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“I think (Trump) is definitely frustrated that Canada hasn’t caved. He knows the retaliatory tariffs will have economic impacts in the United States, and he’s hoping more escalation will force Canada to back down,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

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But Richard Shimooka, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, says Trump’s additional pressure is likely part of the deal-making process.

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“I think that he tries to create more and more and more leverage, and at a certain point a deal gets made however it is, and then that’s it,” he said, pointing to what happened between the U.S. and North Korea.

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He recalled how Washington and Pyongyang exchanged nuclear threats, and then, “all of a sudden, they’re best buddies,” while noting that he’s not sure a resolution is coming for Ottawa anytime soon.

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Shimooda also questioned whether “this is smart policy for them” with the U.S. midterms looming and polling in the U.S. showing low levels of support for Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Hurting Bombardier, which has several U.S.-based facilities and employs more than 3,000 people, would mean affecting U.S. voters in those areas. 

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Shimooka also suggested it may be time to wait Trump out because his power is waning. 

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“In the second half of the second term, the political power of a president at this stage is increasingly limited,” he said.

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The midterms are also among the reasons why Kavanagh doesn’t think Trump will follow through with his threat. 

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“I don’t think he’ll do it because, given the focus on inflation, increasing U.S. manufacturing, and countering deindustrialization, and economic concerns going into the midterms, it would just be a very strange move to alienate a really important group of voters.”