Trudeau proroguing parliament becoming more likely, say strategists

With the NDP now promising to topple the government, the PM may see value in hitting the pause button on Parliament

Published Dec 27, 2024  •  Last updated 5 minutes ago  •  2 minute read

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a press conference on October 14, 2024, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, after Canada expelled six top Indian diplomats, including the country's ambassador. India and Canada each expelled the other's ambassador and five other top diplomats, after New Delhi said its envoy had been named among "persons of interest" following the 2023 murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader.(Photo by DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

OTTAWA — Will he, or won’t he?

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As the Liberals prepare for what’ll undoubtedly be a tumultuous new year, indications are growing stronger that the PM may hit the pause button on parliament.

Andrew Perez, a Liberal Party strategist and principal of Perez Strategies, said that prorogation is almost certainly fait accompli.

“I don’t see how the government can avoid prorogation,” he said. “If they don’t, they’re going to be defeated and plunged into an election in the first week of February.”

With more members of the Liberal caucus losing confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership — and one-time ally Jagmeet Singh now promising to introduce a confidence vote to topple the minority government — Perez said putting Parliament on ice is the only way for him to save his political skin.

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While senior Conservative strategist Stephen Taylor agreed that proroguing may give Trudeau precious time, the move comes with risks.

“I think that would only erode his position,” he said.

Proroguing would also enable the Liberals to choose a new leader, should Trudeau choose to put his ego aside and toss in the towel.

“Prorogation would allow him to create that 90-day window in the Liberal constitution for a leadership race,” Taylor said. “But, Justin Trudeau promised he would be the one to lead the Liberals into the next election, and he’s usually pretty firm on commitments that involve himself and his honour.”

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Perez outlined three potential scenarios for Trudeau in the coming year: he stays on as PM to face his government being toppled before seeing the party wiped out in the coming election; he announces his resignation in January before proroguing parliament to allow for a leadership race; or he steps down and allows the party to appoint an interim party leader and PM to preside over a throne speech and budget before leading the Liberals into a 2025 election.

Perez suspects scenario two is most likely.

“Prorogation would allow Trudeau to remain as PM until the new leader was selected,” he said.

“It would allow Trudeau, in his remaining weeks or months in power, to deal with this existential tariff threat and not worry about parliament, and allow the party to have a leadership race — you can’t have cabinet ministers running for leadership crisscrossing the country and then having to run back to parliament for question period and confidence votes.”

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Taylor, however, isn’t convinced that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s role in the affair ended when he publicly tore up his party’s two-year-old supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals.

“Singh promised to eventually vote against the Liberals with Justin Trudeau as their leader but hasn’t committed to doing so at the earliest opportunity,” Taylor said, echoing NDP assurances that they’d support a non-confidence motion in late February or early March.

“There is some wiggle room there for him, and some real wiggle room for Trudeau to make a deal (with the NDP) in order to extend the life of this government.”

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