Syria grapples with unrest as government faces old and new threats

Damascus was rocked connected Tuesday by explosions during a sojourn by French President Emmanuel Macron, the archetypal European Union person to sojourn the state since forces led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa deposed Bashar al-Assad successful December 2024.

A abstracted weaponry detonation astatine a Damascus cafe past week killed astatine slightest 9 people.

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Eighteen radical were reported injured successful the latest explosions connected Tuesday, which occurred aft an archetypal instrumentality that information forces were defusing adjacent the French president’s edifice detonated, followed by a 2nd detonation immoderate minutes later, the authorities quality agency, SANA, reported.

Al-Sharaa’s authorities has faced innumerable challenges since al-Assad’s ouster 2 years ago. Having taken power of a bitterly divided state wracked by years of civilian war, which served arsenic a theatre for extracurricular actors specified arsenic Russia, Iran, and its assorted allied Shia militias, joblessness remains precocious and the regularisation of instrumentality uncertain.

While work for the caller spate of bombings remains unknown, conjecture is centring upon the remnants of the ISIL (ISIS) group. Its erstwhile capital, Raqqa, successful northeastern Syria became synonymous with its brutal excesses, and the radical remains a tangible unit connected the ground. The United Nations estimates the radical inactive boasts betwixt 1,500 and 3,000 fighters crossed Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

ISIL “is inactive astir and inactive active”, Aron Lund, a chap astatine Century International, a New York-headquartered deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera, adding that, truthful far, speculation connected work for the caller bombing had mostly centred upon the group.

“It’s not truly astir numbers. You conscionable request a mates of guys to marque and works a weaponry to make an outsized impact,” helium said, referring to the government’s efforts to task a consciousness of normalcy and pull tourism and much-needed overseas investment, which bombings specified arsenic Tuesday’s tin easy derail. “From a governmental and intelligence view, these things couldn’t travel astatine a worse time,” Lund added.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron, right, shakes hands with Syrian President Ahmed al-Charaa during a sojourn to the Umayyad Mosque successful Damascus [Ludovic Marin/Pool/AFP]

Presence of equipped groups and factions

While al-Sharaa has defied expectations successful regaining power of astir each of Syria aft years of fighting, successful immoderate areas the regularisation of instrumentality is astatine champion maintained by section militias co-opted into the army, oregon is hardly existent astatine all. Other warring groups besides stay progressive aft years of conflict.

In summation to those who stay loyal to the erstwhile al-Assad regime, a fig of the Shia militias that primitively allied with Iran to backmost the erstwhile authorities stay active. All the while, mistrust and rivalries with neighbours Iran and Iraq, the Lebanese equipped radical Hezbollah, and Israel – which has proven anxious to enactment number groups, specified arsenic Syria’s Druze, against the authorities – endanger the state-building task al-Sharaa began successful December 2024

“Damascus controls astir of Syria successful ceremonial terms, including the main cities and the northeast aft the January integration deal,” Nanar Hawach, a elder expert with the Crisis Group, said, adding that authorities power ranged from its strongest successful occidental and cardinal areas to its weakest on the confederate borderline and successful Druze-majority regions.

Syrian information forces deploy amid clashes betwixt tribal and Bedouin fighters connected 1 side, and Druze gunmen connected the different successful July 2025 [Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP]

“Syria’s remaining opponents autumn into 3 chiseled challenges with antithetic aims and methods,” Hawach continued. “ISIL cells question to undermine the caller bid done attacks from wrong government-held areas, erstwhile authorities remnants enactment arsenic scattered spoiler networks done sabotage, and equipped actors successful Suwayda and the northeast clasp the capableness to usage unit to contention however Damascus governs and integrates them.”

Matters betwixt the Druze and the section colonisation reached a caput successful July 2025 erstwhile warring betwixt Druze and section Bedouins spilled implicit into unfastened conflict, allowing Israel to intervene connected what it claimed was the Druze’s behalf to ammunition Suwayda aft Syrian authorities forces entered the Druze-majority city.

Forces loyal to the erstwhile authorities person besides been progressive successful caller weeks. Earlier this week, al-Assad’s billionaire relative Rami Makhlouf, who Al Jazeera reported successful January had been funnelling wealth from exile successful Moscow to Alawite forces successful Syria, issued a video appearing to endanger the authorities successful Damascus. Calling for each Alawite prisoners to beryllium released, Makhlouf warned, “When I accidental I’ll bash something, I bash it.”

Internal threat

Analysts warned that immoderate of al-Sharaa’s challenges mightiness ironically beryllium coming from quarters helium erstwhile relied upon. In securing his accelerated beforehand successful December 2024, al-Sharaa drew heavy from forces from the blimpish Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, alongside a assortment of rival and often arsenic religiously inspired groups.

However, aft the elation of al-Assad’s ousting has travel the harsh world of governing a state destroyed by 14 years of brutal warfare and an system devastated by corruption and a immense array of sanctions.

While overseas concern has yet to instrumentality hold, sanctions alleviation has been coming. In June 2025, US President Donald Trump startled many, not slightest among his critics wrong Syria, by waiving sanctions connected “entities captious to Syria’s development, the cognition of its government, and the rebuilding of the country’s societal fabric”, the US Department of the Treasury said successful a statement.

However, portion sanctions alleviation whitethorn beryllium important to securing aboriginal investment, it raises the imaginable of undermining overmuch of al-Sharaa’s backing among the present mostly unemployed blimpish young men who were captious successful helping him prehend and prolong power.

“I deliberation the top menace to the caller authorities comes from within,” Caroline Rose of the New Lines Institute said, adding that the hazard was posed “not from a singular radical oregon individual, but alternatively a signifier of division”.

“I deliberation elements wrong al-Sharaa’s halfway constituency and erstwhile HTS ellipse could feasibly equine a run against the caller medication and al-Sharaa individually, if they proceed to acquisition grievances implicit a much mean governmental docket that emphasises engagement with the West.”