Nigeria’s counterterrorism gains carry a warning

Nigeria’s subject announced connected June 29 that respective elder commanders from violent groups had surrendered successful the northeast. Captain Mohammed Goni, acting subject accusation serviceman for Operation Hadin Kai (OPHK) against these groups, said the surrenders followed sustained subject unit and that those progressive were being held successful a unafraid determination for profiling and debriefing.

The announcement brought renewed attraction to Nigeria’s coercion crisis, which has widened importantly since the Boko Haram uprising of July 2009. What was erstwhile a mostly Boko Haram-led insurgency confined to a tiny geography has go a broader struggle involving aggregate violent factions and different equipped networks. Today, Boko Haram is nary longer the lone large threat; the scenery besides includes the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Ansaru, Mahmuda, Lakurawa, and galore other, smaller groups progressive successful banditry, equipped robbery and kidnapping.

Nigeria’s effect has besides evolved since 2009. Alongside subject operations specified arsenic OPHK, the authorities person developed programmes to process, deradicalise, rehabilitate and reintegrate immoderate of those who permission violent groups. Operation Safe Corridor (OPSC), established successful 2016, was designed to enactment subject operations by moving with eligible, low-risk individuals associated with specified groups. OPHK itself was launched successful April 2021, replacing Operation Lafiya Dole (OPLD), portion different efforts see associated task unit operations successful the northeast, Operation Desert Sanity and multinational initiatives specified arsenic Operation Lake Sanity.

Continued defections from Boko Haram and ISWAP person strengthened the lawsuit made for OPSC. Its proponents reason that, alongside subject unit from OPHK, the programme offers a existent accidental to displacement the dynamics of the struggle successful the Lake Chad Basin. They besides spot it arsenic reinforcing the Borno State government’s local, non-kinetic, community-driven approach, known arsenic the “Borno Model”, and arsenic a imaginable instauration for nationalist reconciliation and transitional justice.

On June 12, during Nigeria’s 2026 Democracy Day celebrations, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said that much than 124,000 fighters and dependants had entered the surrender process since helium took bureau successful 2023. Defence Headquarters has enactment full surrenders betwixt 2016 and 2025 astatine much than 300,000, with 2,615 radical said to person been successfully reintegrated into nine aft graduating from the OPSC programme.

The numbers bash bespeak success. They amusement that sustained subject pressure, coupled with rehabilitation opportunities, is driving defections and generating quality that helps information forces accelerate operations and prevention lives.

But wide surrenders and reintegration, successful their existent form, could besides beryllium a socioeconomic clip bomb.

Reintegrating erstwhile fighters into communities wherever galore of their victims stay displaced poses superior motivation risks. According to the Observatory for Religious Freedom successful Africa, 79,323 radical were killed and 34,773 abducted successful terrorism-related unit crossed Nigeria betwixt 2020 and 2025, portion Nigeria’s internally displaced colonisation reached 3.7 million.

This creates a stark opposition betwixt the enactment offered to “repentant” oregon surrendered fighters and the conditions endured by their victims. OPSC and different authorities programmes supply erstwhile fighters with counselling, education, vocational grooming and, successful immoderate cases, tools oregon enactment intended to assistance them rebuild their lives aft graduation. Many IDPs, by contrast, stay successful camps oregon big communities wherever food, aesculapian care, acquisition and employment are severely limited.

The imbalance sends a unsafe message: that unit and coercion tin pb to rehabilitation and economical support, portion victims are near to look poverty, displacement and neglect. It has besides fuelled absorption successful immoderate affected communities, wherever reintegration is seen arsenic giving erstwhile fighters a way backmost into nine portion victims stay without capable acknowledgement, redress oregon support.

OPSC officials cull the thought that the programme rewards those progressive successful terrorism. They accidental those who surrender are screened and profiled, and that the Ministry of Justice determines who is eligible for rehabilitation and who should look prosecution. But for galore victims, the injustice remains stark: they spot erstwhile fighters receiving enactment to rejoin society, portion those harmed by the unit are near to grieve mislaid relatives, homes and livelihoods with small assistance oregon redress.

That grievance is made worse erstwhile erstwhile fighters instrumentality to the aforesaid communities arsenic their victims. For IDPs and different survivors, surviving alongside radical linked to groups liable for murder, kidnapping and rape tin reopen trauma and deepen fears astir whether their “repentance” is genuine, oregon whether they whitethorn instrumentality to violence. With anemic enactment for victims and section communities, galore are being asked to judge returnees earlier they person been fixed the assistance they request to recover.

Reports from January 2025 person raised concerns that immoderate Boko Haram and ISWAP defectors are bypassing authoritative rehabilitation programmes and returning straight to communities. Residents interviewed successful those reports described fears astir recidivism, absorption to authorization and the effect of specified returns connected societal harmony and security.

These concerns are not lone astir poverty, stigma oregon the deficiency of post-release support, though each of those tin marque reintegration harder. They besides rise questions astir screening and monitoring. If individuals who person not been decently assessed are capable to instrumentality to communities, oregon if immoderate clasp extremist beliefs aft surrendering, the process tin make semipermanent risks for interior information and societal cohesion.

Another large weakness is the constricted relation fixed to section communities and displaced radical successful reintegration and improvement plans. When victims consciousness their experiences and concerns person been marginalised, these programmes suffer motivation legitimacy. That makes reconciliation harder and tin permission communities much susceptible to resentment, retaliation oregon vigilante justice.

This is the hard equilibrium facing the Nigerian authorities and the military. Encouraging fighters to defect whitethorn beryllium indispensable to weaken equipped groups and bring the struggle person to an end. But that cannot travel astatine the disbursal of justness for victims. Reintegration volition stay fragile and morally troubling if those who suffered the astir are near displaced, unsupported and without redress.

Nigeria’s surrender and rehabilitation programmes tin lone lend to lasting bid if they are matched by a superior committedness to victims: compensation, trauma support, assemblage consultation and the rebuilding of shattered lives. A argumentation designed to extremity unit cannot win if it makes victims consciousness forgotten.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.