Republican Senator Susan Collins could be one of the first victims of Trump’s tariff war

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Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, explains why it’s tough to predict the Collins race. “The senator has earned the right to be given the benefit of the doubt in her races,” he said. “In 2020, she was behind in most of the polls and won in a race that wasn’t particularly close.”

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Likewise, Chris Stirewalt, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said, “I think we’re all a little snakebit by 2020 because her overperformance was so remarkable.” But he also acknowledged 2026 will be harder.

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“She’s a remarkable survivor, but this is definitely her toughest test yet,” Stirewalt added.

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Gonzales said Collins faces a tougher task holding onto crossover support.

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“Voters are just less likely to go against the partisan lean of their state,” he said.

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But Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, still thinks non-Republican Mainers who have voted for Collins in the past may continue to do so.

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“There might be just something about Maine that makes it more open to splitting its tickets,” Kondik said.

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Stirewalt believes Collins’ personal popularity could produce an unusually large bloc of late deciders. “There are going to be a larger than usual portion of Maine voters who hem and haw over that race because they do like Collins, and they do trust her, and think that she is a good person.”

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“It’s gonna be harder for them to flip the switch in their brains,” he added.

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Democrats are framing this and other races around affordability — a major issue this midterm season for all voters — and in Maine and other border states, Trump’s tariff policies are likely to play into that.

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On Tuesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer introduced a bill called the “End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act” that Democrats say would revoke the administration’s newest tariffs and refund duties already paid. The legislation faces steep odds, thanks to the Republican-controlled Congress, but it’s meant to give Democrats a way to pressure Republicans over the tariffs before the midterms.

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“Tariffs are a huge part of the conversation in Maine right now,” said Stirewalt.

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“This tariff war totally makes (the affordability crisis) worse,” said Hale. “It has the potential to make it so much worse.”

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“It’s ruinous for people who are trying to get elected in border states,” he added.

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Both Hale and Kondik argued that Trump’s Canada policy was politically damaging to Republican candidates.

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“If Trump were actively trying to undermine Republicans, would he be doing anything different? I don’t know if he would be,” said Kondik.

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“If he cared anything about Republican candidates trying to get elected in the midterms, he would end this,” said Hale, referring to the U.S.-Canada trade tensions.

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Stirewalt said he expects Republicans to push back hard on the affordability narrative and that “the cavalry is already there and will continue to come in for Collins.”

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Republicans’ strategy will focus on “making Troy Jackson an unacceptable choice,” he said.

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So could a deal be forged that would help Republicans, including Collins, before the midterms?

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Most analysts say a deal would help Republicans, but it would need to be soon.

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“If before the end of September the dispute with Canada was resolved, it would be in time to help Susan Collins,” Stirewalt said.

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Gonzales, however, thinks it may already be too late. “A challenge is that voter sentiment is rarely sudden,” he said. So while the president may say there’s a deal, “it will likely take time to have a real-world impact for voters to change their mind on what’s happening.”

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