PRIME TIME PICK: Will defending champs lose second season opener in a row? Don’t bet on it

Published Sep 04, 2024  •  2 minute read

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs runs during pre-game warmups prior to a pre-season game against the Detroit Lions at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt /Getty Images

Perhaps the person happiest to hear we are returning for another season of NFL prognosticating will be the winningest coach in Canadian Junior Hockey history, as Brian Kilrea takes great joy in pointing out my fumbled picks to our weekly lunch group.

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The legend known as “Gig” to his friends had a lot to giggle about in the first 10 weeks of the 2023 season.

But also pleased to see we are back for another spin must be the bettors who stuck with us after our, um, slow start.

The following is part of an email I sent to the boss, “Hawkeye” Bill Pierce, in what was essentially an application to do the job again.

“I also want to modestly point out that I was 13-3 in Week 18, a rally that brought me to an even par 132-132-8 on the season.

To finish .500, I went a very smooth 71-47-4 after Week 10.”

Take out the four ties and that’s a 60 percent success rate, which most sharps would consider a very strong run down the stretch.

I’m going to have to carry over the momentum from the final weeks of 2023 if I’m finally going to outdo my cohort, the ever-steady and always ready Dan Bilicki.

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Hopefully we can both help you have a good and profitable season.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6)

(2023 record in parentheses)

LINE: Kansas City by 3

CHEWABLE: Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes led his team to its second consecutive Lombardi Trophy — and third in five years — with a 25-22 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers last February, but the 2023 regular season was statistically the worst of his seven-year career, and it started with a 21-20 loss to the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead on opening night. Is the NFL’s best team going to disappoint its fans out of the gate again? Not likely. The Chiefs have taken four of their last five meetings with the Ravens, including a 17-10 win in Baltimore for the AFC title in January, and not once has the margin of victory been by less than three. The Ravens’ only triumph over K.C. during that span was by one in 2021, and Baltimore hasn’t won at Arrowhead since 2012 … The Ravens had the best run game in the NFL last season, and have added Derrick Henry, whose 111.8-yard average in four games against the Chiefs marks the best he has performed against any opponent other than the Giants (126-yard average). But Baltimore was only able to rush for 81 yards against K.C. (54 from Lamar Jackson) in the conference championship showdown, when the Chiefs had the 18th-ranked run defence, and the Ravens have lost three O-linemen from last year’s squad … When it comes to passing attacks, I’ll take a Mahomes motivated to bounce back from a sub-par regular season over a Jackson, whose focus is on converting regular success into playoff success. Especially when Mahomes now has rookie Xavier Worthy who, with a scouting combine record of 4.21 in the 40, gives the Chiefs the deep threat they have missed since Tyreek Hill bolted to Miami.

TAKING: CHIEFS -3

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Kansas City 24, Baltimore 20

DAN BILICKI: RAVENS +3

LAST SEASON

DAN BILICKI

2023 SEASON: 134-130-8

2023 BEST BETS: 8-9-1

DON BRENNAN

2023 SEASON: 132-132-8

2023 BEST BETS: 30-24-3

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