Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zheng Qinwen - prediction, head-to-head, Wuhan Open

In a rematch from the Australian Open final at the beginning of the year, two-time 2024 Grand Slam champion Aryna Sabalenka takes on reigning Olympic gold medallist Zheng Qinwen in the Wuhan Open final on Sunday.

The top-seeded Sabalenka came from behind to defeat Coco Gauff in her previous match 1-6 6-4 6-4, while Qinwen got past Wang Xinyu 6-3 6-4.

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Match preview

© Imago

Sabalenka continues to thrive in Wuhan, winning 16 consecutive matches and equalling Petra Kvitova's record for the most at that venue.

After an opening set where nearly everything went wrong against Gauff, the Belorussian saw Gauff almost single-handedly get her back in the match, with the American committing 21 double faults.

On Sunday, Sabalenka will be seeking her fourth WTA singles title of 2024 in what will be her seventh appearance in a singles final this year.

She will enter the final on a hot streak, winning 19 of her last 20 matches on tour, with her only defeat over that stretch being in the quarter-finals of the China Open versus Karolina Muchova.

Heading into the final, she has converted 58.1% of her second return points for the year and won 45.2% of her return points.

Her three final victories this year were all on the hard court, defeating Jessica Pegula to win the US and Cincinnati Open, respectively, while she beat Qinwen on the hard court in Melbourne at the beginning of the year to capture the Aussie Open.

© Imago

Days after exiting the China Open semi-finals, Zheng Qinwen got a little redemption in her semi-final match this time around, with her victory rarely looking in doubt.

Sunday will be her fourth final appearance at a singles tour event this year, with Zheng winning on two of those occasions, in the Olympic final versus Donna Vekic (6-2 6-3) and the 35° Palermo Ladies Open against Muchova (6-4 6-6 6-2).

Qinwen won 76% on her first serves against Xinyu in her previous match while hitting eight aces against her Chinese compatriot.

Not since her appearance at Wimbledon in July has she lost a match that went to a third set when New Zealand's Lulu Sun upset her 6-4 2-6 4-6.

So far in 2024, Qinwen's first-serve percentage is 52.2%, while she has won nearly half of her second-serves (46.1%) this year.

In her return game, she has converted 47.6% of her break point opportunities this year while also winning 43.7% of her return points.

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Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round of 32: vs. Katerina Siniakova 6-4 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Yulia Putintseva 1-6 6-4 6-4

Quarter-finals: vs. Magdalena Fench 6-2 6-2

Semi-finals: vs. Coco Gauff 1-6 6-4 6-4

Zheng Qinwen:

Round of 32: vs. Jaqueline Cristian 6-2 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Leylah Fernandez 5-7 6-3 6-0

Quarter-finals: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-2 3-6 6-3

Semi-finals: vs. Wang Xinyu 6-3 6-4

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Head To Head

US Open (2023) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-4

Australian Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-2

US Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-2

When these two met at Arthur Ashe Stadium in the 2023 US Open final, Sabalenka converted 50% of her break points, while Qinwen failed to convert any of hers as the Belorussian cruised to a comfortable victory.

In Melbourne earlier this year, Sabalenka beat Qinwen again, winning 84% of her first serves en route to another straight-sets triumph.

At Flushing Meadows this past summer, Sabalenka had a first serve percentage of 71%, to Qinwen's 44%, as the 26-year-old went on to win a second singles Grand Slam this year.

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We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Sabalenka has shown no signs of slowing down, and we believe her psychological advantage over Qinwen and her powerful first serve will enable her to lift another trophy.

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