Poilievre finally gets some good polling news — but it’s not about the Conservatives

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Pollsters said it’s likely that the NDP’s new leader, Avi Lewis, is also having an effect on the party’s poll numbers. Andrew Enns, executive vice-president for polling firm Leger, said Lewis’s controversial idea about government-run grocery stores as a remedy for rising food prices, for example, is at least presenting a new idea and getting his party some attention. “It’d be hard to take that away from him.” 

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Valentin said Lewis’s favourability and unfavourability numbers have both been on the rise, as have the number of Canadians who are now familiar with the new NDP leader. The share of Canadians who say they aren’t familiar with Lewis has fallen to 22 per cent from 30 per cent in recent weeks, he said.  

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But analysts also point out that many voters choose candidates for many reasons beyond ideology. Jeram said one of the complexities could also be a new phenomenon where some voters, working-class, suburban voters in small cities for example, migrate back and forth between the two opposition parties, even though they’re at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum.   

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Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians between May 31 and June 13 using interactive voice-recording technology. The poll has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

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That poll found that the Conservatives would have the support of 34 per cent of Canadians if ballots were cast at that time, down three percentage points from April. Both the NDP and Bloc Québécois were at 6 per cent support with the Green Party at 3 per cent, making the voter split a significant challenge for the opposition Tories’ quest to challenge the Liberals. 

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“That’s not a good formula for Poilievre and the Conservatives,” said Leger’s Enns said about the results at that time. 

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As for the party leaders themselves, Liaison found that Carney clearly remains voters’ top choice. The new poll found that the prime minister has a +20 rating (57 per cent approval, 37 per cent disapproval), while Poilievre has a –12 rating (37 per cent favourable, 49 per cent unfavourable), and Lewis has a +3 rating (26 per cent favourable, 23 per cent unfavourable). 

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The Liberals now hold a parliamentary majority after benefitting from recent by-election wins and a handful of floor crossers (four from the Conservatives, one from the New Democrats), but the next election isn’t expected to be held for another few years.  

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National Post 

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