Netanyahu promises Iran regime change: Can Israel topple Tehran government?

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that overthrowing Iran’s authorities remains Israel’s “primary objective”, arsenic helium faces declining enactment successful the polls earlier nationalist elections adjacent week.

His remarks came aft conversations with United States President Donald Trump connected Sunday and a sojourn to Israel by Pentagon main Pete Hegseth. But Netanyahu offered nary denotation that Washington had agreed to articulation different violative against Iran, fto unsocial a run to bring down Iran’s leadership.

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While Israel has the firepower to inflict superior harm connected Iran, analysts told Al Jazeera, it lacks a wide strategy for translating subject gains into the overthrow of Iran’s government. Air strikes unsocial are improbable to execute that objective, portion a crushed penetration would request a acold greater subject commitment, they said.

A renewed violative would besides mean confronting a authorities that has already survived 2 rounds of attacks and retains the means to retaliate – some against Israel and its Gulf neighbours who are hosting US subject assets. US backing, meanwhile, remains uncertain, with experts questioning Washington’s appetite for renewed warring arsenic it is yet to find a credible imaginable of forcing Iran’s authorities to surrender to its demands.

Does Israel person the firepower?

Israel’s quality to onslaught Iran is not successful doubt, experts say. Urban Coningham, a probe chap astatine the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera that its violative weapons stockpiles, and “aerial refuelling” capabilities springiness it a important advantage. “Israel could again found aerial superiority and onslaught Iranian targets,” helium said.

But portion Israel tin inflict superior damage, analysts are sceptical that it tin execute authorities change.

Netanyahu has portrayed Iran’s leaders arsenic a large menace since his archetypal word arsenic premier curate successful 1996. Addressing the US Congress that July, helium said, “The astir unsafe of these regimes is Iran, that has wed a cruel despotism to a fanatic militancy.”

Nearly 30 years later, US information successful the June 2025 war, and again successful the run launched connected February 28 this year, delivered the subject involution Netanyahu had agelong sought. The overthrow of Iran’s government, however, did not follow. Netanyahu himself acknowledged the limits of airpower successful March, saying, “You can’t bash it lone from the air.”

“There has to beryllium a crushed component, arsenic well,” helium added, without explaining what that would involve.

Caglar Kurc, an adjunct prof astatine Abdullah Gul University successful Kayseri, Turkiye, said bombing could weaken Iran’s subject but not needfully destruct its quality to combat back. “Airpower tin degrade subject capabilities but cannot afloat destruct violative capabilities,” helium told Al Jazeera. “Well-hidden systems would survive.”

Overthrowing the government, Kurc said, would necessitate a willingness to deploy troops and stay connected the crushed for years. Israel tin besides nary longer presume that covert methods utilized successful earlier attacks would beryllium arsenic effectual again.

Coningham described quality assets arsenic “use and burn” due to the fact that deploying these methods risks exposing networks that Iranian information services volition analyse and disrupt.

Israel inactive has “human quality assets connected the ground”, helium said, portion “cyberattacks” could besides signifier portion of different campaign. But utilizing those capabilities risks revealing and sacrificing them, making the imaginable of a tangible subject summation an important consideration.

Covert operations and cyberattacks, successful his assessment, bash not connection a wide way to overthrowing Iran’s government. Coningham was likewise sceptical that Kurdish oregon Baloch equipped groups could supply the crushed unit needed to situation the state. In March, the Trump medication was said to beryllium actively discussing providing arms to absorption Kurdish groups, according to CNN, which cited Kurdish and US officials. But this ne'er progressed.

“Kurdish groups lacked the subject capabilities to instrumentality connected the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” helium said.

Iran tin inactive retaliate

Iran besides does not request to lucifer Israel aircraft-for-aircraft to marque different violative precise costly, experts say.

Sidharth Kaushal, a elder probe chap astatine RUSI, told Al Jazeera that the “Iranians apt clasp sizeable stocks of missiles,” adjacent if harm to their targeting systems whitethorn constrain their effectiveness.

“The existent antiship rocket stockpiles apt stay large, some due to the fact that they are comparatively casual to make, and Iran has in-housed overmuch of the accumulation of older Chinese ASCMs, and Iran’s confederate mountains supply earthy shelters against aerial attack,” Kaushal said.

Coningham said that, for Israel, sustaining its defences would beryllium much difficult, with erstwhile exchanges having drawn down interceptor stocks.

Repeated attacks besides enforce a fiscal burden, arsenic Israel volition beryllium intercepting comparatively inexpensive Iranian drones with acold much costly antiaircraft weapons. Over a prolonged exchange, that imbalance could spot further unit connected Israel’s interceptor supplies, portion Iran retains the capableness to mass-produce much inexpensive weapons for a batch longer.

Would Washington articulation different attack?

Analysts see this unlikely, pointing to diverging governmental interests betwixt Tel Aviv and Washington, with Trump facing unit to debar renewed escalation earlier the US midterm elections.

The Financial Times reported this week that an Israeli connection for renewed strikes had failed to unafraid Trump’s approval, though it suggested disagreement astir contiguous enactment alternatively than Washington ruling retired aboriginal attacks altogether.

Without Trump’s participation, Coningham said, Israel would deficiency US capabilities for striking profoundly buried facilities. These see the 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs that US B-2 bombers dropped connected Iran’s Fordow and Natanz atomic facilities successful June 2025. Designed to penetrate profoundly buried targets, the weapons gave Washington an violative capableness Israel could not lucifer connected its own.

Coningham besides suggested that, if Israel were to onslaught without US support, Iran mightiness ore its retaliation connected Israeli territory portion avoiding US targets and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

Such an attack would question to punish Israel without drafting Washington straight into the fighting, perchance further isolating a state already wide ostracised by the planetary assemblage amid its genocide successful Gaza.

But analysts accidental the cardinal obstacle that could yet forestall Israel from attacking Iran is the spread betwixt its quality to destruct subject targets and its capableness to unit governmental alteration wrong Iran.

“You cannot alteration a authorities unless you are prepared to deploy troops and enactment successful the state for immoderate years. Israel cannot power Iran. The United States would not prosecute successful different authorities change, which could instrumentality decades,” Kurc added.