LILLEY: Erskine-Smith’s Liberal leadership ambitions at stake in Scarborough Southwest

If he doesn’t win the nomination race this weekend for the upcoming provincial byelection, his leadership aspirations will quickly die

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Published May 08, 2026  •  Last updated 1 hour ago  •  3 minute read

Beaches-East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith speaks to reporters outside of the Liberal caucus room on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Photo by Bryan Passifiume /Toronto Sun

On Saturday, Liberals in Scarborough Southwest will pick their candidate for the upcoming provincial byelection.

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The decision won’t just be about who carries the Liberal banner into the next election; it could have leadership implications.

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On the ballot is Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, the current federal Liberal MP and one of the people who is running to be the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.

The crazy thing is that, despite Erskine-Smith being considered a front runner for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party, he may not win the local nomination. If he doesn’t, it may be due to an internal party fight with many Ontario Liberals saying they want anyone but Nate to be their leader.

First elected as a Liberal MP in 2015

Erskine-Smith was first elected as a Liberal MP in 2015 for the federal riding of Beaches-East York. His persona was one of a maverick who would buck party lines, which is fine if you are a backbencher but doesn’t work if you are leader.

In 2023, Erskine-Smith ran to be leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, losing to Bonnie Crombie on the final ballot 53.4% to 46.6%.

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Now he’s back for another kick at the can. But to get to the leadership race, Erskine-Smith needs to win the local nomination contest.

Normally, for leaders, this wouldn’t be an issue, but since Erskine-Smith has put his name forward, it is. If he doesn’t win the local nomination, his entire leadership ambitions are set back immeasurably.

Also on the ballot this weekend are lawyer Qadira Jackson, small business owner Ahsanul Hafiz, and immigration consultant Mahmuda Nasrin. None of them have the name recognition or experiences of Erskine-Smith, and yet, ahead of the vote, it’s not clear he will beat them.

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Earlier this week, more than 1,800 potential voters, most believed to have been aligned with Erskine-Smith, were removed by the Ontario Liberal Party citing irregularities. Then there are the people that he is up against, who have their own stake in the riding and connections to the community.

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Qadira Jackson ran for the Liberals in this riding in the 2025 provincial election finishing third behind winner Dolly Begum of the NDP, who is now a Liberal MP, and Addie Dramola who placed second for the Progressive Conservatives. The Liberals haven’t done well in this riding since Lorenzo Berardinetti won it under Kathleen Wynne in 2014.

The man many are look to as the one to beat is Ahsanul Hafiz, a Bangladeshi-Canadian immigrant who owns dozens of Domino’s Pizza franchise location across Ontario. Hafiz has also served on the executive of the Liberal Party of Canada and has been organizing for some time, having originally wanting to represent the area federally before Begum moved over.

In a riding with a significant Bangladeshi community, many are looking at Hafiz as the one to beat on Saturday.

Erskine-Smith must win Scarborough Southwest

Bottom line, before Erskine-Smith can take a run at the Ontario Liberal leadership and face off against the likes of Lee Fairclough, the Etobicoke MPP who just launched her campaign, or the likes of potential contenders like former MP Navdeep Bains, he has to win in Scarborough.

If Erskine-Smith doesn’t win the nomination race this weekend, his leadership aspirations will quickly die. He can’t make a claim to be leader if he can’t win a local nomination race.

There are those around Premier Doug Ford who relish the opportunity to face off against Erskine-Smith, believing Ford could easily beat him in a general election. This weekend, they will be watching the nomination race as closely as the team behind Erskine-Smith, though for different reasons.

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