LILLEY: Carney’s Liberals romp in byelections while pressure mounts on Poilievre

Concern for Conservatives is showing up in national and provincial polling as well

Published Sep 01, 2026  •  3 minute read

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney (left) speaks with Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill on Feb. 11, 2026 in Ottawa. Photo by Dave Chan /Getty Images

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Mark Carney was all smiles as he stepped out of his vehicle to speak to reporters on Tuesday morning. Why wouldn’t he be, given that his party not only won all three byelections, but won them handily?

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Two of the three ridings were previously held by the Liberals and were expected to stay inside the red tent, but the third had been held by the Conservatives since 2018 and, in that race, Pierre Poilievre’s team finished third.

“The message from Canadians, I think, is clear. They’ve given their support, more than 50% in each of these ridings, to the government’s plan,” Carney said.

It’s hard to argue with that. Those are cold, hard facts.

The Liberals took 58.6% of the vote in North Vancouver—Capilano, 55.7% of the vote in Beaches—East York and 51.3% in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

Given that the Conservatives never had a shot at winning the Toronto or Vancouver-area ridings, the only number that counts is the 12.5% of the vote they received in Quebec.

From first to third

When Richard Martel, now appointed to the Senate, won this riding in a byelection in 2018, he took 52.7% of the vote. Over the next three elections, he had to battle hard to keep it, but he did keep it.

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There is some merit to the argument that this is Martel’s riding and not a Conservative riding. Over the years, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord has been held by the Conservatives, the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc and, way back when, Social Credit.

This is an absolute swing riding that is loyal to no party.

Still, to go from winning this riding in four elections, scraping through with 34% in 2025, to taking just 12.5% of the vote in this byelection is an embarrassment for the Conservatives.

There are five byelections still to be called. Two are in Quebec and were previously held by the NDP and Bloc; two are in Ontario, with one held by the Liberals and one by the Conservatives; and one is in Saskatchewan that was held by the Conservatives.

The only one of those that the Conservatives have a solid shot at winning is Cathay Wagantall’s former riding of Yorkton—Melville. Brantford—Brant South will soon be vacated when MP Larry Brock retires, and there is a good chance the Liberals will steal that one.

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Danger signs ahead

The Conservatives have held that riding for 18 years.

Sure, the Liberals held the riding in the 1990s and early 2000s, and the NDP held it in the 1970s and 1980s, but the Conservatives have held this area since 2008. The fact that this riding is considered in play, that the Conservatives will need to work hard to keep it, should be cause for concern for Poilievre and his team.

The concern for Conservatives isn’t limited to one riding. The problem is showing up in national and provincial polling as well.

The most recent national poll by Leger for Postmedia puts the Liberals at 46% voter support compared to 34% for the Conservatives and 8% for the NDP. In Ontario, Leger puts the Conservatives at 39%, which isn’t a bad result until you compare it to the Liberals sitting at 49%.

More recent polls from Ipsos and Abacus show similar gaps of 11% and 10%, respectively.

MPs will be watching

What that means is that many of the 50 Conservative MPs elected in Ontario in the last election are going to be getting nervous. Poilievre needs to figure out a way to turn things around or it will be his own MPs who turn on him.

Yes, he got 87% support from party members at a convention held in January, in cold Alberta. His problem is that the Conservative Party rules allow his own caucus to vote him out, a process that was used to oust Erin O’Toole as leader so that Poilievre could take over.

MPs may seem loyal to Poilievre now, but if allowing him to keep his job means they might lose theirs, expect that to change. If the polls don’t improve, his biggest threat won’t be Carney. It’ll be the MPs sitting behind him.

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