LILLEY: Battle for Arizona heats up as U.S. election approaches

Like much of America, the formerly reliably Republican state is deeply divided when it comes to politics

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Published Oct 12, 2024  •  3 minute read

This combination of photos shows Vice President Kamala Harris, left, on Aug. 7, 2024, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump on July 31, 2024. Photo by Charles Rex Arbogast /The Associated Press

PHOENIX – Kamala Harris campaigned just outside of Phoenix on Thursday and Friday – on Sunday, Donald Trump will hold a rally north of the city in Prescott Valley.

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With just over three weeks until election day, Arizona, a formerly reliably Republican state, is up for grabs.

Arizona, like much of America, is deeply divided when it comes to politics.

The latest polls show just how tight it is in this battleground state. While a poll conducted for The Wall Street Journal finds Harris ahead by two points, 48%-46% over Trump, a poll by Emerson College for The Hill finds Trump ahead 49%-47%.

In an attempt to reach out to Republican voters, and push back on the claim that she is an out-of-touch California Liberal, Harris used an event in Scottsdale on Friday to promise that she’d have a Republican in her cabinet.

“Part of what I intend to do … is creating a bipartisan council of advisers who can then give feedback on policy as we go forward,” Harris said.

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The two biggest issues facing voters right now in this southwest corner of the American desert are immigration and the economy – and both of those issues favour Donald Trump.

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Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, held rallies in Tucson and Mesa, hitting the immigration issue hard and linking it to employment prospects and a housing crisis.

“Trump’s message to illegal aliens who are in this country without any right to be here, pack your bags. Because in four months, you’re going home,” Vance said.

North of Phoenix, it was a rally for Harris’ running mate Tim Walz, who offered a very different take on immigration. The Democrat promised that, if elected, a Harris-Walz administration would provide “an earned pathway to citizenship for those who’ve lived here in this country for years.”

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Vance and Walz showed up just as early in-person voting was getting underway in Arizona. Unlike 2020, when the Trump campaign encouraged supporters to only show up on election day, this year they are calling for people to vote anyway they can.

Joe Biden’s narrow victory over Trump in the 2020 election is attributed to mail-in ballots and getting people out to vote early. Biden beat Trump by just over 10,000 votes to collect Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes.

This combination of images shows Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, at left in Erie, Pa., Aug. 28, 2024, and Democratic vice-presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaking at the DNC in Chicago, Aug. 21, 2024, in Chicago. Photo by J. Scott Applewhite/Gene Puskar /THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

For decades, Arizona was a reliably Republican state.

Between 1952 and 2016, voters in Arizona only backed the Democrat candidate once. That was 1996 when, thanks to vote splitting by Ross Perot, Bill Clinton got more votes in Arizona than George H.W. Bush.

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Biden’s win four years ago gives the Democrats hope that they can hold Arizona. It also gives Republicans the motivation to work hard to ensure 2020 it was an anomaly rather than part of a pattern.

There’s now doubt the state is changing – even in elections where Republicans do take most of the votes, it has been by smaller and smaller margins.

The Trump campaign will be relying on older voters to try and secure victory, which could give him a strategic advantage. Younger voters are less reliable when it comes to voting and that is where Harris has her strength in Arizona.

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A statewide poll conducted for the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) found a distinct generational divide for the two candidates.

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“Among voters 50+, Trump is ahead by 7 points, driven by a 14-point lead among voters 50-64, while the race is a tossup with seniors. Harris’s 4-point lead among voters 18-49 is due to her 9-point edge with 18-34-year-olds,” the poll said. “Both white and Hispanic voters narrowly lean toward Trump, but the gap between white and Hispanic voters is wider among voters 50+.”

As with 2020, the side that shows up will win, which is why there is such a mad scramble to reach voters in Arizona right now. Both campaigns are putting a lot of resources, including the non-stop television and radio ads, into trying to sway voters on how they will mark their ballot.

The daytime temperature these days is hitting as high as 39C, but things are just starting to heat up in Arizona.

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