Kelly McParland: Smith covers her bets for Alberta vote

Premier Danielle Smith speaks at a press conference in Calgary on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026. Photo by Darren Makowichuk /Postmedia

Article content

In the 18 weeks since Alberta Premier Danielle Smith set the date for her multi-part referendum on the province’s future the reaction in much of Canada has ranged from perplexion to… continued perplexion.

Article content

As in, why is she doing this? Has she noticed that Justin Trudeau is gone and Mark Carney is a different sort of prime minister? That the supposedly Liberal regime in Ottawa has vaccuumed up Conservative policies and repackaged them as Liberal priorities?

Article content

Article content

Article content

The puzzlement doesn’t fade when it’s pointed out that the share of Albertans supporting departure has never been much above one in three and sometimes less than one in five, that the estimated price of forging a new country is somewhere between costly and ruinous, and that the result of numerous government members advocating for a “leave” vote has been a sharp boost in support for the New Democratic Party.

Article content

Article content

If you were searching for a parallel in Canadian political history you might come across the ill-conceived attempt of Alberta’s own former prime minister Joe Clark to pass a deeply unpopular budget in 1979 despite heading a minority government that lacked the votes to push it through.

Article content

The conclusion  of that escapade was the defeat of Clark’s Tories after just nine months in office and the resurrection of Pierre Trudeau for his fourth term in office, with 126 seats in Ontario and Quebec and zero in Saskatchewn, Alberta or British Columbia. It was a bad gamble that left onlookers wondering who could possibly have thought it would turn out well.

Article content

In the current situation, the identity of the guiding culprit is no mystery. It was Smith’s decision to cobble together 10 questions for Albertans to address, including a proposal to consider a later proposal to abolish Alberta as a province and bring it back as a country.

Article content

Article content

Her reasoning for throwing the province’s place in Canada open to question is convoluted at best, and a big source of the public’s puzzlement. While professing to be a firm believer in Canadian unity she apparently feels the best means of confirming Alberta’s deep love of country is to hold a vote on whether to leave. And rather than put forward a straight up yes or no query, she’s running a referendum on whether to drag things out even longer. Come Oct. 19 the province will have a chance to decide whether to decide.

Article content

Article content

The timing of the vote looks particularly odd given that enthusiasm for separation in Quebec, the birthplace of patriotic equivocation, has been showing distinct signs of waning. It’s been 30 years since the province’s last referendum and the latest polls show opposition to departure at almost 70 per cent. A later generation of Quebecers shows little sign of the fervour that fired their parents; the fact the separatist Parti Quebecois may soon form a government has little to do with a yen for independence and much to do with an electoral system that allows for victory with just 29 per cent of support.