John Ivison: Scenes from a nation in no rush to defend itself

Canada's sluggishness on ammunition production would be less damaging if there were progress elsewhere, but a lack of preparedness pervades across the board

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Published Sep 10, 2024  •  Last updated 0 minutes ago  •  6 minute read

155 mm artillery shells are stacked during the manufacturing process at an ammunition plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The U.S. has increased shell production by 178 per cent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the same time period, Canada has increased its regular artillery shell production by about zero per cent. Photo by Matt Rourke/AP

IMT Group was founded as Ingersoll Machine and Tool in Ingersoll, Ont. in 1914 in a factory designed for soap production.

The engineering firm remains headquartered in south-western Ontario but now has six integrated businesses supplying the automotive, rail and defence industries.

One of its specialties is the production of metal casings used for 155-millimetre artillery shells. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has found its services in high demand — so much so, that it will cut the ribbon on a new multi-million-dollar facility next month.

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But that increased demand has not come from Canada’s Department of Defence, to which it is a supplier under this country’s Munitions Supply Program. Bill Blair, the defence minister, has told industry that the government plans to “substantially increase” the production of ammunition in Canada but so far that commitment has been limited to a $4.4-million investment in IMT and Quebec-based General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada to develop a plan to ramp up production.

Rather, IMT’s new facility has been financed by hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts from the U.S. Defence Department to manufacture shell casings.

“It is the Americans who have made the hard cash investment in Canadian production,” said Christyn Cianfarani, president of the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries.

Budget 2024 did allocate $1.8 billion over five years to build up a reserve of ammunition, but that money does not start to flow in earnest until 2027–28.

“There has been a massive failure to launch on the part of Canada. I question whether they actually want to create a strategic reserve,” said Cianfarani.  “There is no sense of urgency and there is even a poison pill, where ‘private sector beneficiaries’ are asked to contribute to re-tooling their facilities.”

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National Post asked the Department of National Defence to provide the level of the current 155-millimetre shell inventory; whether there are contracts in place to produce more shells; whether Canada will be a beneficiary from the increased production at IMT; and, whether there is indeed a lack of urgency to boost ammunition stocks. The department said it couldn’t answer those questions in the time available.

What our allies have grasped is that life moves pretty fast.

IMT’s website points out that “in the world of defence, there is no margin for error.”

Thank God we didn’t have this lot in charge in 1939

The Americans have taken that to heart in recognizing that a lack of ammunition production was a national vulnerability. As a result, a new report from the Pentagon reveals that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has spent US$5.3 billion on ammunition and missile systems such as Javelin and HIMARS rocket launchers. That investment has seen shell production increase by 178 per cent to 40,000 a month, with a target of 100,000 a month by the end of next year.

The report noted that France and Sweden will double the capacity of ammunition produced by 2025; that sites in Germany, Spain, Hungary, South Africa and Australia plan to increase production by an additional 700,000 artillery shells a year; and that a new gunpowder factory is set to open in Romania. The update does not mention Canada — with good reason. Canada has augmented its regular artillery shell production by roughly zero per cent since the invasion of Ukraine.

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In late 2022, the then chief of the defence staff, Wayne Eyre, urged defence companies to shift to a “war footing” to ramp up production. However, he was aware that such a move required the Liberal government to commit to long-term contracts, just as the U.S. has done.

That has not happened. Canada’s Defence Department has issued a request for proposals (RFP) to establish a domestic manufacturing capability to produce artillery fuzes necessary for shells. The RFP asks for bids to be submitted by next month, with the contract being awarded next summer. However, the delivery date is listed as being the end of June 2027, by which time the war in Ukraine will have been going on for five-and-a-half years, in the unlikely event that the Ukrainians have enough ammunition to keep fighting.

“Everyone is working with a great sense of urgency, except us. Thank God we didn’t have this lot in charge in 1939,” said one industry veteran.

DND has previously said that General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada (GDOT-C) produced 20,000 155-millimetre shells in 2022 to replenish stocks donated to Ukraine and a further 8,000 rounds in 2023. It did not update those production numbers for 2024, but it is apparent there has been no surge, which explains why our latest military donations to Ukraine earlier this month amounted to 64 surplus Coyote LAVs that are no longer operational and will be used for spare parts.

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Eyre told the House of Commons committee last fall that Canada has not produced an additional round of ammunition since the Russian invasion and is down to what would be a few days’ supply if it were forced to fire its big guns at the same rate that Ukraine is.

It’s not clear why things are moving so slowly.

A memo from Bill Matthews, the deputy minister of defence, to his then defence minister, Anita Anand, was obtained by the Ottawa Citizen in fall 2023. In it, Matthews blamed industry, saying there were a “variety of reasons” why munition suppliers were unable to provide the type or quantities required.

Cianfarani responded that the main reason is the government has failed to sign firm, multi-year contracts to secure those capabilities.

The experience of the Afghan War suggests that industry does have the surge capacity when required. A study completed in 2015 suggested GDOT-C quintupled production and cut delivery times in half when demand was highest.

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The sluggishness on ammunition production would be less damaging if there was progress elsewhere, but it seems that across the board there is a lack of preparedness — from Forces’ recruitment to the delivery of our warships, still likely a decade away.

The latest red flag is the news that China is sending its three icebreakers to the Arctic to co-operate with the Russians against NATO’s presence in the polar region. China describes itself as a “near-Arctic state” and has started construction on its fourth icebreaker to take part in joint patrols with the Russians. The two countries have signed a joint communiqué agreeing to develop shipping routes and polar ship technology.

At the NATO summit in July, the U.S., Canada and Finland responded with an initiative to collaborate on the production of polar icebreakers.

Yet, Canada and the U.S. are not blessed with resources: the Americans have only two functioning ice-breakers, while Canada’s only heavy icebreaker, the CCGS Louis St-Laurent, is aging and expected to retire from service in 2030.

Seaspan Shipyard in British Columbia said it will not start cutting steel on the Louis St-Laurent’s replacement until later this year and industry observers are skeptical that the yard will be able to deliver a new polar ship in the allotted time.

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It is in keeping with the general scuttlebutt among this country’s allies: don’t count on Canada to step forward.

Adherence to the Latin adage “si vis pacem, para bellum” (if you want peace, prepare for war), has helped make most of the world safe for democracy for the past 80 years.

As the danger levels have risen, 23 of 32 NATO countries have now met the defence-spending target of two per cent of GDP that is today more widely seen as a floor, not a ceiling. Canada says it will get there in 2032.

In part, this is because a risk-averse bureaucracy has decided that more money cannot be spent in a tighter time frame.

The Americans’ surge in ammunition production has proven that assertion to be false and exposed a governing class with an apparently infinite capacity for complacency.

National Post

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