B.C. Election 2024: These are the ridings to watch out for in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley

Although there are 93 districts across the province, here are eight that could determine whether the NDP return with a renewed mandate or the Conservatives get a shot to form government for the first time in almost 100 years

Published Sep 20, 2024  •  6 minute read

Cailey Lynch, Premier David Eby's wife, with their youngest child, Gwen, talks to voters as the NDP campaign launches in Surrey. Behind her, Eby talks to the NDP's Surrey–Serpentine River candidate Baltej Dhillon. Photo by Arlen Redekop /PNG

On Friday, NDP Leader David Eby joined Surrey–Serpentine River candidate Baltej Dhillon at Uppal Farms in Surrey to unveil the campaign bus that will ferry him across the province for the next 29 days. It is expected Eby and the NDP will spend a fair amount of time and resources on the riding in the coming weeks.

“There’s a very specific reason why we launched this campaign in Surrey. Think about the challenges that are faced, not just in British Columbia but also across Canada and many parts of North America,” Eby told reporters.

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“Whether it’s health care, education, challenges around affordable housing, cost of living impacts going up for people. In many ways, Surrey is the epicentre of many of the challenges we face.”

In contrast, Conservative Leader John Rustad will kick off his campaign in Black Creek on Vancouver Island on Saturday night, while Green Leader Sonia Furstenau will return to her riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill.

Where the party leaders choose to appear over the next month can tell voters a lot about their strategy and which ridings they feel are critical for their success, which ones they feel secure in, and which ones they believe they don’t have a chance of winning.

Mike McKinnon is a senior consultant at Enterprise Canada, who was deputy communications director to former NDP premier John Horgan. He said that the key to NDP success will be in keeping those voters who supported the party for the first time in 2020.

“Historically, it’s been a really tight battle in this province, between the NDP and, previously, the B.C. Liberals and now the B.C. Conservatives,” he said.

Allie Blades, campaign strategist and former B.C. Liberal senior manager of community engagement, said the Conservatives may be able to siphon off some of those voters off by appealing to the unhappiness among many about the state of the province, particularly when it comes to health care and public safety.

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“I think the Conservatives are going to do very well to build on that and offer a viable alternative voting option to the NDP,” she said.

Although there are 93 districts across the province, here are eight across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley that could dictate proceedings and determine whether the NDP return with a renewed mandate or the Conservatives get a shot to form government for the first time in almost 100 years.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad talks to delegates Friday at the annual convention of the Union of B.C. Municipalities in Vancouver. Photo by Scott McAlpine /UBCM

Surrey–Cloverdale and Surrey–Serpentine River

By far the biggest battleground in the province will be Surrey, with the NDP and Conservatives fighting over 10 ridings in B.C.’s fastest-growing city. Unlike other parts of the province, Surrey has a strong inclination to switch support from party to party and has rarely been fully beholden to either the NDP or the centre-right alternative of the day.

In Surrey–Cloverdale, the Conservatives have selected Elenore Sturko, former B.C. United mental health and addictions critic, to run against NDP incumbent Mike Starchuk in a part of Surrey that has been at the centre of the debate over the state of the local health-care system.

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The site of the future Cloverdale hospital and medical school, Eby and Health Minister Adrian Dix have made several trips to the riding over the past few months in an effort to demonstrate the NDP’s commitment to addressing long waiting times and inadequate services at Surrey Memorial and Peace Arch hospitals.

Surrey–Serpentine River is a new riding made up of portions of Surrey–Cloverdale, Surrey–Fleetwood and Surrey–Panorama.

Polling shows it is one of the biggest toss-up ridings in the province with constituents almost evenly divided between supporting the NDP and supporting the Conservatives.

In an attempt to gain an edge, the NDP have nominated a strong candidate in Baltej Dhillon, the first Sikh to wear a turban while serving as a member of the RCMP, while the Conservatives have put forward former Surrey mayor Linda Hepner.

Blades said the benefit for the Conservatives in a riding like Surrey may be that some of the more Conservative values held by members of the South Asian community align with the party’s comments on issues such as the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools.

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“What I’m really observing with the Conservatives right now is that they’re bringing it forward. They’re actually going to talk about these issues because they matter to families.”

Richmond Centre and Richmond Queensborough

Outside of Surrey, the region of Metro Vancouver most likely to flip this election is Richmond, where the NDP won three out of the four ridings in 2020 but now face a renewed surge of Conservative support in places like Richmond Centre where Henry Yao is the incumbent and Richmond-Queensborough where Aman Singh has held office for the past four years.

The city has historically been one of the more conservative areas of B.C.’s most populous region, with east Asians the majority demographic.

Recent months have seen protests over Vancouver Coastal Health plans to put an overdose prevention site, which were eventually shelved at the request of the premier, and the suspension of Cambie Permanent Housing Project that would have provided supportive housing.

Conservative candidates Hon Chan of Richmond Centre and Steve Kooner of Richmond-Queensborough will be hoping to ride some of those grievances around mental health and addictions and public safety to the legislature.

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Langley–Abbotsford and Langley–Willowbrook

The Fraser Valley has historically been one of the conservative heartlands of the province with the NDP making historic inroads in 2020, winning all of Langley and Chilliwack as well as Abbotsford–Mission.

With a renewed centre-right opponent in the Conservatives, it will be tough for the NDP to maintain hold all five of their seats in the region, with Chilliwack and Abbotsford–Mission heavily leaning toward Rustad’s camp.

In Langley–Abbotsford, the NDP have acquired the services of former federal Liberal MP John Aldag who has made the decision to move to provincial politics given the unpopularity of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal brand.

He will face longtime B.C. Conservative Harman Bhangu.

In Langley–Willowbrook, a lawyer and the NDP’s minister of state for sustainable forestry innovation, Andrew Mercier, has built a solid personal brand and is facing a transplanted Conservative candidate in alternative medicine practitioner, Jody Toor, from Surrey–Cloverdale.

B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau at UBCM convention in Vancouver on Friday. Photo by Scott McAlpine /UBCM

Vancouver–Langara and Vancouver–Yaletown

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While the vast majority of Vancouver is likely to stick with the NDP outside of Conservative strongholds like Vancouver-Quilchena, there are two ridings that represent an interesting opportunity for change.

The new riding of Vancouver-Yaletown has been constructed in a way that might give the Conservatives an opportunity for a pickup, due to local concerns about public safety and the more conservative nature of areas like Yaletown.

This was partly why the NDP shifted Jobs Minister Brenda Bailey to the safer neighbouring riding o Vancouver–South Granville.

In her place, the NDP have nominated Terry Yung, former Vancouver Police constable and husband of Vancouver councillor Sarah Kirby-Yung, while the Conservatives have tapped a former Vancouver city councillor and park board commissioner, Melissa De Genova.

Vancouver–Langara is a less straightforward case, with the riding having historically been a B.C. Liberal stronghold and is likely to vote Conservative.

However, Bryan Breguet, the local Conservative candidate and Langara economics professor, has got himself in some hot water over past social media statements on the legality of underage sexual relations and abortion.

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The NDP are hoping they can capitalize on this and have nominated teacher and longtime SUCCESS member Sunita Dhir.

McKinnon says that despite areas like Vancouver being more safe for the NDP, they are not going to take it for granted.

‘If you talked to somebody like Adrian Dix, and you saw how hard he works in his own riding, and is in touch with his campaign managers and his staff and the time he spends in his riding for a guy who wins by 50 points, I think that would kind of hit home with you a little bit further,” he said.

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