John Ivison: An ambivalent Trump and emboldened Putin, what could go wrong?

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But Article 5 does not automatically compel members to declare war; it merely obliges them to assist “as they deem necessary,” which might include economic sanctions.

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Russia has so far contented itself by carrying out hybrid warfare against the West, using sabotage, cyber-attacks and disinformation to undermine institutions. A new report by the Canadian Senate’s national security and defence committee said that the volume of Russian disinformation has increased significantly, including the use of AI to create “deep fakes.”

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The report concluded that the sheer volume of disinformation exceeds Canada’s capacity to address it effectively.

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However, we may soon have more concerning matters to deal with than divisive memes online.

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A report this spring from the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center predicted that within the next three years, Russia will likely escalate this “grey zone” type of campaign, in favour of a limited military incursion into NATO’s Eastern flank.

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The Harvard report suggested Putin sees a window of opportunity while Trump is still in office to shatter NATO.

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“European capitals should avoid binary assumptions about U.S. involvement in any future conflict and create plans for situations in which American military support is delayed, limited or withheld altogether,” it concluded.

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Trump’s talk of troop draw-downs and his bitterness that NATO “wasn’t there when we needed them” pretty much answers Tusk’s question in the negative.

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Last November, as part of his Ukrainian peace plan, the president called for dialogue between Russia and NATO, in talks that would be mediated by the U.S. It is clear that the White House no longer sees America as an integral part of the alliance.

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A Canadian soldier with NATO’s Multinational Brigade Latvia, 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry, participates in fighting withdrawal drills outside of Daugavpils, Latvia, during Exercise Resolute Warrior on Nov. 5, 2025. Photo by Sgt Aydyn Neifer, NATO Multinational Brigade Latvia

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Europe (and by extension, Canada) has gotten itself into a ridiculous situation where, in Donald Tusk’s words, 500 million Europeans are “begging” 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians, who can’t beat 40 million Ukrainians. His point is that the rest of NATO has the population, wealth and military potential to look after itself but lacks the will and belief.

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That is changing. But NATO still needs the U.S.’s command and control intelligence capability, its airborne warning systems, its ability to mobilize and deploy sufficient forces, its targeting data for air strikes, its heavy armoured brigades, its aircraft carriers and its amphibious task force. Even France’s commitment to provide a nuclear umbrella is not an adequate substitute for the U.S. nuclear deterrent.

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The suggestion from diplomatic sources is that it will take five years to fix this mess – and if they know that, one presumes Putin does too.

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My contact said his Baltic colleagues are not overly worried about Russian adventurism in their neighbourhood while the war in Ukraine rages on.

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But Putin still harbours ambitions to reconstitute Peter the Great’s imperial empire, including the Baltic states, while undermining NATO’s solidarity.

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Trump’s tacit approval to do just that means the Russian dictator will continue to move forward until he is convinced the price is not worth the risk.

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This is not a quarrel between far away countries of whom we know nothing, to quote Neville Chamberlain. Russia represents a significant physical threat to Canada’s interests and defence in the Arctic.

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Putin will need a new external enemy once his war in Ukraine ends. He sees Europe as unprepared and vacillating.

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But, excluding the U.S., there will be nearly 600 F-35 fighters stationed in Europe by the end of the decade.

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Deterring the Russians will rest not on declarations but on the resolution to use them, if need be.

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National Post
[email protected]
Twitter.com/IvisonJ

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