With such a slim majority, can Carney afford to lose Guilbeault?

Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault attends Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development held in the West Block of Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /Postmedia

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OTTAWA — Liberal MPs and former cabinet ministers Jonathan Wilkinson and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith are expected to resign their federal seats in the coming weeks, bringing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to the majority threshold of 172 seats.

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With such a razor-thin majority and contentious decisions on the horizon, can Carney afford to lose other MPs such as former environment minister Steven Guilbeault?

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A well-connected Liberal source told National Post that Guilbeault had not yet made up his mind on his political future, and is giving himself time to see how things play out with the negotiations in Alberta for an oil pipeline and the proposed reform of major projects.

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For now, Guilbeault sees himself as a “watchdog” on the environment, the source said.

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But as National Post previously reported, Ottawa is expected to designate a pipeline to the West Coast as being in the national interest this fall as part of the memorandum of understanding Carney’s government is negotiating with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

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The news is bound to not only anger Guilbeault, a staunch environmentalist, but also other progressive Liberal MPs who do not want to see a new pipeline going to British Columbia.

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Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer and managing director at Compass Rose, said it was evident as soon as Carney obtained his majority that it would be “tenuous at best.”

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“It may seem counterintuitive, but in fact, attaining majority position with that small an advantage was actually more perilous in some respects than the minority, because it was inevitable that there would be more of a clash of ideas within the Liberal caucus itself.”

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Surkes, who held senior roles in former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s office, said the Carney government “signalled very, very clearly its intent to expedite its agenda” on some of the major issues Canada is confronting including some that may be more controversial.

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While she said it might be “inevitable” there would be “caucus flare-ups,” she said it is important that caucus management remain a central preoccupation to any leader.

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“Caucus management needs to be as vigorous right now as the negotiations with Alberta,” she said, adding that other MPs may come out in the days following the announcement with Alberta to say that they don’t agree or did not feel included in the conversation.

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Carlene Variyan, partner at Summa Strategies, said that the Carney government is representing “a much bigger political tent of ideologies” with MPs such as Marilyn Gladu and Lori Idlout leaving their respective parties to join the Liberal ranks.

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“I would advise them to look at this as a strength, not a weakness,” she said.

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Variyan argued that Carney’s approach to resource development has been put to the test with Canadians with the three byelections in progressive ridings last month, and that the electorate is continuing to support Liberals knowing their agenda and their platform.