Joe Varner: The only ‘win’ Israel should take is an Iran without nuclear weapons

The preemptive destruction of Iran's nuclear program will bring the ayatollah to his senses, laying the foundation for regime change in Tehran

Published Oct 17, 2024  •  Last updated 1 minute ago  •  4 minute read

A uranium conversion facility in Isfahan, Iran, seen in 2005. Photo by BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images/File

Israel had failed to deter Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and the west had failed in their promise to stop it. As a result, the Jewish state has only one viable strategic option to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb, and that is attacking Tehran’s nuclear facilities before it is too late. By April 2025, Iran could have up to 10 nuclear weapons. This is a situation that cannot be allowed to happen, and the time has come for Israel, the United States, and the west to preempt the Iranian nuclear force before it is used to strike Israel.

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Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been attacked by a series of Iran’s proxy terrorist militias, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. These Iranian proxy militia are paid for, trained, armed, and receive support and direction from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has responded to the threat posed by these militias and Iran over the course of the last year.

Breaking with its long-held doctrine of using proxy militias to attack opponents, Iran has attacked Israel twice with ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones first in April, and, more recently, in the last week. The next Iranian attack with ballistic missiles directed at Israel could well have nuclear warheads. We know from the most recent ballistic missile attack that despite assistance from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, and the best air defence system in the world, that some Iranian ballistic missiles get through and hit their targets in Israel. Israel cannot take a chance that the next Iranian attack on the Jewish state is nuclear-armed.

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To date, Iran has not been deterred by the fact that Israel is the preeminent military power in the region, or that Israel is armed with nuclear weapons. If Iran cannot be deterred from attacking Israel, and the Israeli defence is not without gaps, even when assisted from outside, Israel has little option but to the strike Tehran’s nuclear facilities now, before Iran has a nuclear bomb and potentially several of them.

Israel struck Iraq’s Osirak in 1981 and Syria’s al-Kibar in 2007, both nuclear reactors in the early stages of development and incomplete, from what we know from the public record. The Iranian program is well-advanced with several facilities geared to a nuclear weapons program, many of them defended, some of them underground, some possibly unknown. In addition, Iran has restricted and even banned some inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran has a stockpile of uranium enriched to near-weapons grade levels and has carried on research well above the standard necessary for civilian nuclear programs or academic purposes. Most concerning to outside observers is Tehran’s deep cooperation with both Russia and North Korea on a variety of weapons programs and what that may mean for the future of Iran’s nuclear arsenal.

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There are risks in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, but there is, in fact, a greater risk in not doing so. There is no question that the United States, United Kingdom, and even France want Israel to refrain from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, and instead, as they said earlier this year, stand back and “take the win” of escaping attacks from Iran and its proxies largely unscathed up to this point.

Tel Aviv, in the past, has used sabotage and assassination to slow down Iran’s dream of having a nuclear bomb. But by all accounts, all it has done is slow down Tehran’s steady march to a nuclear weapon, and the west’s efforts to use sanctions and money to stop the Islamic Republic have failed, if they ever worked in the first place. Israel has many retaliatory options to deal with Iran until its next missile attack. The IDF can carry out a cyber-attack, strike Iran’s oil facilities which fuel the Islamic Republic’s economy, attack military facilities in terms of Iran’s missile fields, and even decapitate the Iranian military and political leadership with targeted killings and assassinations, much like they have done with Hamas and Hezbollah.

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Alternatively, the Jewish State could attack and perhaps destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will never have a better pretext or reason to move to preemption than they have now, and the international support for Israel has never been shakier. Going it alone now appears to be the best option to ensure the security of Israel, and striking Iran’s nuclear facilities is a step in the right direction for the Israeli government. At the very least, the IDF devastates Iran’s ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb, and at best destroys the program altogether. The only other option open to Israel is to wait for the next Iranian attack and hope its defences hold back the worst Tehran can deliver to destroy Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East. Deterrence has failed. Israel preemptively destroying Iran’s nuclear program is the only and best option to bring the Ayatollah to his senses and to lay the foundation for regime change in Tehran.

National Post

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