Ivison: Poilievre won’t axe all of the carbon tax, ex-Harper adviser says

This week, John Ivison is joined by veteran economist and strategist Ken Boessenkool, who was a senior adviser to Stephen Harper and a former chief of staff to B.C. premier Christy Clark.

Boessenkool is part of a group called Conservatives for Clean Growth, who are pushing the idea that climate policy matters and that any credible election platform needs a carbon plan. Ivison asked whether a Pierre Poilievre government would keep the industrial emitters carbon tax that covers the majority of Canada’s emissions, even if it kills the consumer tax.

Article content

“Look, there’s a huge gap between what Conservatives say and what Conservatives do. And I hate to admit this, but it’s true. Jason Kenney ran on ‘Axe The Tax’ and he beefed up the industrial carbon price in Alberta. Danielle Smith ran on ‘Axe to Tax’ and she not only beefed up the industrial carbon price in Alberta, she said she was going to go to $170 (a tonne). She committed to doing that. And as you mentioned, that’s the heavy lifting,” he said.

Boessenkool noted that one Quebec newspaper reported that a Poilievre government would kill the large emitter tax, and within an hour the Opposition leader’s office sent out a correction saying “that’s not what he said.”

“In Alberta, 70 per cent of emissions are subject to a carbon price on the industrial side. And I just don’t see any government in any future getting rid of that — Conservative, Liberal or New Democrat,” he said. “The question is: will it continue to get more stringent? Will it continue to get tighter? And I think the answer to that question is almost certainly, yes. If Danielle Smith’s gonna promise to go to $170, I think other prime ministers and premiers (will follow)…There will continue to be public pressure to do something about climate change,” he said.

Article content

Article content

Ivison asked if the Liberals’ byelection defeat in Montreal on Monday, on top of an earlier loss in downtown Toronto in June, meant the governing party is no longer competitive in Canada’s big cities.

“Well look, their numbers were bad last week, their numbers are bad this week, and I expect their numbers will be be bad next week. So, it’s a continuation of bad news. But on the flip side, (Christy Clark) was 22 points behind in the polls when I was there, and she won the next election. Now, she was a new leader, so maybe there’s something there, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. Justin Trudeau is a formidable campaigner and if I were Pierre Poilievre, I wouldn’t be putting any of my tools down, that’s for sure,” he said.

The problem for Trudeau is the length of time he’s been in power, Boessenkool said.

“When I talk to Liberals these days, I get flashbacks to 2014, when we convinced ourselves that Stephen Harper might be able to win the next election. And, you know, I still think he could have won that election. But nine, 10 years is sort of the useful life of a government these days. And these guys are getting close.

Article content

“There’s a risk that no one hears the message because they’re sick of the messenger. And I think they’re suffering from that. They certainly have put him in the front window for a long time. I remember going to B.C. to be Christy Clark’s chief of staff. And I don’t think she would be embarrassed for me to tell this story. But I said to her, ‘you’re on the news every night, Christy. You’re overexposed. Can we pull back a little bit?’ We went from daily news conferences to weekly and just getting her out of people’s faces every day and that actually it helped. So I might have the same advice for those guys: put a few other people in the window.”

A second byelection on Monday saw the NDP hold the Elwood-Transcona seat in Winnipeg and Boessenkool attributed some of the credit to Manitoba’s NDP premier, Wab Kinew.

“What I like about him is he finds a way to address issues that you think are normally the strength of people across the aisle. So he talked about the need for Canada to get to a 2 per cent spending on the military. For a New Democrat to say stuff like that and say it credibly, at the end of a bunch of sentences that talked about his progressive ideals, he just has a way of communicating, (for example), his back to school message with a little chalkboard. He’s just a fun guy…I do think that rubbed off a bit…It’s a young new government with a young new leader. And I think a lot of people want him to succeed for all kinds of reasons, including being the first Indigenous premier in Canada. He’s got a lot of people, whether they’re from left, right or centre, quietly clapping for him.”

Article content

Looking at what else a Conservative government might do, Boessenkool said Poilievre would have to find new money to implement all his promises.

“Not surprisingly, spending more and taxing less is popular, but the math doesn’t add up when you’re in government and you do that. There are some things that the Liberal-New Democrat coalition has done that the Conservatives can build on. I actually like the idea of a dental care program. I find it fascinating that we have an addition to the healthcare system, and the running of that system is being contracted out to a private firm. It’s being run privately and you still have private options for dental care, even though there’s a public component. It’s all very interesting because, and this was introduced by the New Democrats. So we have a new healthcare system that’s essentially a European style healthcare system, the dental program. And I can’t help but think if that works and it’s done well, it might be an interesting model for the rest of the healthcare system.

“You can always point back and say, look, it was the New Democrats and the Liberals who created this…A number of us have said, ‘maybe dental care is a program that we should look at keeping and maybe even expanding’.

Article content

“Pharmacare, I’m of a different mind on that one. I think that’s more provincial jurisdiction.There’s a lot of provinces that have programs in place. We can compare what B.C. is doing with what Alberta is doing with what Manitoba is doing, and figure out which is the best way to do it. I’m not sure a one-size-fits-all from Ottawa is the right thing. But the reality is, the pharmacare program they brought in is three or four different medications across three or four different diseases. So it’s a pretty sparse program.

“One thing I think is a monkey wrench, and I alluded to it before with Wab Kinew, is if Canada is gonna spend 2 per cent of GDP, on national defence…that’s $18 billion a year we gotta find. So it’s gonna be tight and it’s gonna be tough.”

National Post

Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.

Article content