Is the ballot question: 'Do we need a new mayor?' | Opinion

Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe takes part in a press conference during Federation of Canadian Municipalities and Big City Mayors caucus meetings in Ottawa February 5, 2026. Photo by BLAIR GABLE /POSTMEDIA

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Somewhat against expectations, Ottawa could be looking at an interesting mayoral race this fall.

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Mayor Mark Sutcliffe will be tough to beat, but he has three serious challengers. Veteran councillor Jeff Leiper, homebuilder Alex Lawson and economist Neil Saravanamuttoo all have substantive policies and pointed critiques of how things have gone at City Hall during Sutcliffe’s tenure.

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Each of the three faces twin challenges, persuading the public that Ottawa needs a different mayor and that they are likely to do a better job than Sutcliffe.

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The mayor is certainly starting from a position of strength. He took just over 51 per cent of the vote in the 2022 election and he has largely delivered what he promised. Tax increases have been reasonable, the police have increased in numbers, road repair spending has doubled, and OC Transpo seems finally to be moving in a better direction, if ever so slowly. Sutcliffe has also shown leadership, turning a rancorous council into one that works together more collegially.

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These are not small accomplishments and politicians who deliver on their promises are generally worthy of re-election.

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Despite that, an early poll indicates a tight race. A June 19 poll by Liaison Strategies showed Sutcliffe in front with 38 per cent support from decided and leaning voters, Leiper not far behind at 31 per cent, newcomer Lawson at a surprising 21 per cent and Saravanamuttoo at eight per cent.

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It’s not surprising to see that Leiper has significant support. The affable three-term councillor is the standard bearer for the city’s NDP-left Liberal voters. Councillor Catherine McKenney played the same role four years ago, taking just under 38 per cent of the vote.

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The dynamic could be different this time. In 2022, it was essentially a two-person race with only Sutcliffe and McKenney getting double-digit support. The campaign is in its early stages, but if Saravanamuttoo stays in the race and gains support, he will certainly hurt Leiper’s chances.

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It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of Lawson’s early poll numbers. He’s an outspoken and likable guy, but he started with no public profile. To his credit, Lawson has worked hard to get on top of the issues, but he’s more likely to be a spoiler than a winner.

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If Lawson can attract a significant number of small-c conservative voters on election day, it will make things difficult for Sutcliffe.

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It’s hard to predict the outcome of this fall’s vote if the race becomes something other than a referendum on Sutcliffe’s generally strong performance. Taxes are the wild card.

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Sutcliffe is sure to promise four more years of modest taxes increases. It’s a formula that has worked for Ottawa mayors for a very long time. Unfortunately, politically acceptable tax increases have left much city infrastructure in poor shape. Over the next 10 years, there is a $3.8 billion gap between infrastructure needs and planned spending.