Iran reveals ‘offensive’ doctrine, US issues alert: Is war imminent?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says renewed attacks by the United States could punctual Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and deed bases utilized successful US subject operations arsenic portion of its caller “offensive” strategy.

The informing connected Wednesday came amid escalating attacks connected shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz, a planetary vigor chokepoint, and uncertainty implicit diplomatic efforts to extremity the astir eight-month war.

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“Our defence doctrine was antecedently defensive; we utilized to accidental that if a state attacks us, we volition respond. Now we accidental that if a state attacks us, we volition some respond and motorboat an offensive,” IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said.

Washington ordered immoderate diplomatic unit to permission Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen’s Houthis portion US President Donald Trump has signalled that a determination connected the struggle could travel soon.

According to media reports, the US and Israel are readying imaginable attacks connected Iran successful the coming weeks.

As negotiations look stalled and some sides speech threats, could the portion beryllium heading towards different subject escalation?

What is Iran’s caller doctrine?

The IRGC connected Wednesday announced a displacement towards an “offensive and asymmetrical” defence doctrine, threatening to invade countries that motorboat attacks against it.

Mohebi said Tehran would nary longer bounds its subject operations to retaliatory strikes.

Mohebi stressed that Iran’s rocket stockpile has accrued 1.5 times since the 12-day warfare betwixt Iran and Israel successful June 2025. He did not supply circumstantial figures.

“The prime of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive powerfulness and accuracy successful hitting targets person increased,” the spokesperson said.

Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were successful the “stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of each bombs’. This is thing caller for the enemy.”

Meanwhile, attacks successful the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.

The IRGC’s navy said connected Thursday that 4 vessels it accused of being progressive successful amerciable lipid transfers were struck and caught occurrence successful the bluish Gulf. Three different vessels deed mines westbound of the strait, it added.

Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s lipid and earthy state supplies passed done the Strait of Hormuz. While shipments done the strait are inactive beneath those levels, lipid shipments from the portion returned to pre-war levels past period arsenic exporters recovered alternate ways to vessel retired their lipid and gas, including utilizing pipelines.

However, a flurry of caller attacks successful the cardinal waterway and the warring betwixt Yemen’s Houthis and its Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government, which has resulted successful Houthi attacks connected Saudi Arabia, person erstwhile again sent lipid prices surging. Brent crude climbed supra $110 a tube connected Thursday amid fears of further disruptions to determination vigor supplies.

Why the shift?

Iran’s displacement towards an violative subject doctrine reflects Tehran’s determination to marque aboriginal US-Israeli attacks importantly much costly, according to analysts.

Negar Mortazavi, elder chap astatine the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was drafting lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026 aft its erstwhile strategy of retaliation failed to forestall repeated attacks.

“Tehran present wants to found a caller equation: Any aboriginal onslaught connected Iran volition travel astatine a overmuch higher outgo for the aggressors,” she told Al Jazeera.

Unable to lucifer accepted US subject capabilities, Iran is progressively relying connected asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its leverage implicit the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained.

She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed astatine imposing military, economical and governmental costs connected Washington, including perchance influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.

(Al Jazeera)

“Iran wants to thatch Washington a lesson: Attacking Iran comes with a precocious price, 1 that tin adjacent outgo elections,” Mortazavi said, referring to US surveys that are predicting electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.

She added that Iranian officials were intimately monitoring the elections, believing the economical fallout from the warfare could harm the Republican Party’s prospects of retaining power of Congress.

“The semipermanent nonsubjective is to found deterrence truthful that aboriginal American administrations deliberation doubly earlier daring to onslaught Iran again,” she said.

Political expert Rami Khouri said the doctrine was besides intended to guarantee that the consequences of attacks widen to the US, Israel and determination countries supporting their subject operations.

“That’s 1 portion of the strategy, that the suffering and the harm person to beryllium adjacent and reciprocal,” Khouri, nonresident elder chap astatine the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.

Khouri argued that Tehran was besides seeking to situation what it views arsenic longstanding Western domination of the region.

“The Iranians are really moving to effort to extremity the assemblage period,” helium said.

He added that Iran’s strategy could widen the economical consequences of struggle acold beyond the Middle East, affecting vigor supplies, transportation, security costs and shipments of indispensable goods.

“The symptom is going to spell mode beyond conscionable the Middle East and Israel and the US and volition wounded radical successful different parts of the world,” Khouri said.

What has the US said astir resuming the war?

Trump has offered conflicting signals astir Washington’s adjacent steps.

On Wednesday, helium said the US was nary longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. “We are going to person thing 1 mode oregon the different that’ll hap reasonably soon,” helium told reporters.

He besides said Washington could extremity the warfare instantly but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’ll extremity precise soon. We could permission now, but we privation to marque definite it lasts for a agelong time,” Trump said astatine a run rally successful South Carolina.

Trump antecedently pledged not to onslaught Iran earlier the November 3 elections.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a bid statement is highly hard and insisted that Iran indispensable halt targeting commercialized shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz.

In caller weeks, Iran’s enrichment of uranium has re-emerged arsenic a constituent of contention.

Rubio has maintained that Washington volition cull immoderate statement allowing Iran to make atomic weapons, which necessitate highly enriched uranium. “The United States volition not enactment immoderate woody that creates a pathway for Iran to ever person a atomic weapon,” helium said connected Wednesday.

Tehran insisted its close to enrichment is guaranteed nether the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Iran has offered a seven-day program to reconstruct shipping done the Strait of Hormuz successful speech for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

Meanwhile, the US Department of State connected Wednesday ordered nonemergency unit and their families to permission Saudi Arabia aft caller Houthi attacks.

The US embassy successful Riyadh has warned of further attacks portion American officials told the Reuters quality bureau that household members could beryllium withdrawn from different Gulf missions.

State Department spokesperson Tommy Piggott said departure orders for ngo unit crossed the Gulf person not been ordered, saying the existent orders were for “employees and their household members successful Saudi Arabia only”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated connected Sunday his pledge to topple Iran’s government, saying it was cardinal to preventing it from rebuilding its atomic programme and the “axis of resistance”, further raising prospects of an escalation.

Netanyahu made the comments arsenic Israel’s longest-serving premier curate is locked successful a pugnacious conflict to stay successful powerfulness successful Tuesday’s elections.

Is warfare imminent?

Analysts warned that renewed US-Israeli attacks connected Iran are progressively imaginable with some sides preparing for different confrontation contempt the continued anticipation of diplomacy.

“Another circular of warfare seems to beryllium approaching,” Mortazavi said.

“Both sides look to beryllium preparing for renewed confrontation portion escalating tensions successful the Strait of Hormuz summation the hazard of a wider conflict,” she said.

Mortazavi added that the elections successful the adjacent 2 weeks successful the US and Israel could power the timing of subject enactment but warned that the existent trajectory appeared to favour escalation implicit negotiations.

Mohsen Rezaei, caput of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, connected Wednesday said, “Everyone indispensable cognize that immoderate enactment against Iran comes astatine a cost.”

“If diplomacy tin make this understanding, we similar diplomacy, but if the warfare continues, Iran has the indispensable means to prolong its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA quality agency.

Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that different confrontation could beryllium approaching though helium said US threats mightiness inactive beryllium portion of a negotiating strategy.

“I deliberation imminent struggle is connected the cards, but I don’t cognize if warfare is the close connection to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.

He said renewed strikes could people Iran’s captious infrastructure, including energy networks, proscription systems, bridges and indispensable services.

“We’re astir apt going to get immoderate terrible attacks connected a fewer targets that volition effort to marque beingness successful Iran precise difficult,” helium said.

However, Khouri cautioned that Iran’s quality to withstand different large subject violative portion inflicting comparable harm connected its adversaries remained uncertain.

“It’s not wide if Iran has the quality to withstand large caller assaults against it,” helium said, portion stressing that Tehran was improbable to surrender to subject pressure.