Iran ceasefire ‘unlikely’ to be extended without a peace deal, Trump says

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Events of the last few days have shifted rapidly, underscoring the risks if the talks are derailed.

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Equities dropped from all-time highs on Trump’s comments about a ceasefire extension, pausing a five-day winning streak. Oil prices rose on Monday, with benchmarks up by more than 5% and Brent trading near US$95 a barrel as of 2:10 p.m. in New York. Investors are closely watching how or when energy flows through the strait will meaningfully resume.

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Last Friday, Trump posted on social media that a deal was all but agreed to and Iran announced it was reopening the strait. But shortly afterward, Tehran shuttered the waterway again when Trump declined to call off the U.S. blockade. Over the weekend, the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman.

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“I have it closed. I took their ship. I got five other ships I’ll take today if I have to,” Trump said in the phone interview.

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Beyond the strait, arguably the most fraught issue is Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has demanded Iran forswear any ambitions for a nuclear weapon and hand over stockpiles of enriched uranium. Tehran has balked at giving up its uranium and has said its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

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Trump and advisers see his varying comments about what might happen if the ceasefire deadline lapses as creating strategic ambiguity that the U.S. could exploit in talks, said a White House official, who requested anonymity to describe internal thinking.

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Yet that uncertainty has the potential to create misunderstandings with Iranian negotiators, who are simultaneously grappling with internal divisions among the country’s leaders.

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Conservative elements within the Iranian government and military leadership, including those at the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have taken the continuation of the U.S. blockade as a further signal that Trump can’t be trusted, according to U.S. and Iranian officials.

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The IRGC’s leader, Ahmad Vahidi, is among those in that camp and is pushing for a tough negotiating stance, people familiar with the dynamics said.

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There is a divide between the likes of Vahidi and less ideological figures, such as Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who are more inclined to reach an accord with Washington, said the U.S. and Iranian officials.

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Despite the standoff, there’s still a good chance of a deal between the U.S. and Iran in the next few days that effectively ends the war, even if more negotiations are needed over nuclear and military issues, the officials said.

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Trump is facing pressure at home to end the war, with polls showing most Americans disapproving of the conflict. The president campaigned on keeping the U.S. out of foreign entanglements and lowering consumer prices, two pledges strained by his decision to launch the war.

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He has sought to assuage those worries, insisting that fuel prices will fall quickly once the war ends and that the U.S. is not embroiled in a quagmire.

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The conflict has already stretched beyond the four-to-six week timeline Trump initially set, and he has repeatedly suggested the conflict was nearing a conclusion. At the same time, he’s urged Americans to have patience, noting that other U.S. wars dragged on for years.

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“Vietnam lasted how many decades, right? Vietnam lasted years. Afghanistan lasted years. They all lasted years,” Trump said. “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal by treasonous senators and treasonous congresspeople.”

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