Ian Bremmer: Is Trump sabotaging Republicans’ midterm hopes?

U.S. President Donald Trump Photo by Jim WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

Article content

Few ideas live closer to the heart of U.S. President Donald Trump’s political brand than his consistent claim that the American left steals elections at his expense. If we don’t stop them, Trump warns his crowds, we won’t have a country anymore.

Article content

When he (fairly) defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, but without winning a majority of votes, he insisted that millions had voted against him illegally, and that the Democratic party had “rigg(ed) the election at polling booths.” When he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, he made these and more charges, and then encouraged a riot at the Capitol to try to halt the election’s certification. In 2024, he said Democrats had recognized his win over Kamala Harris only because the margin had been “too big to rig.”

Article content

Article content

Article content

Now Trump faces his final popular vote. His name won’t appear on the ballot this November, but the results of midterm elections for Congress are nearly always considered a referendum on the president and his performance. That’s especially true when, as now, his party holds majorities in both legislative houses.

Article content

Article content

This next election comes at a time of deep unpopularity for Trump. His poll numbers are lower at this point in his tenure than those of any second-term U.S. president in the past 80 years — with the sole exception of Richard Nixon on the eve of his disgraced resignation in 1974.

Article content

But this time, judging by his actions, Trump doesn’t seem to care about the election’s outcome. It’s true that, earlier this summer, he used a loudly trumpeted televised speech to rehash never-substantiated charges about previous elections, including accusations that China has created an “unprecedented election security nightmare” by hacking millions of voter registration files and manipulating social media (though not suggesting taking any policy actions against China in response). He also accused Democrats of hiding the evidence.

Article content

Article content

Trump also persists in pushing the Republican-controlled Congress for new laws that would require all voters to present identification at the polling place, a measure many of his fellow Republicans oppose. But none of this is new — and most of the Republicans now facing midterm challenges have done little to boost Trump’s various vote conspiracies.

Article content

Article content

The president also seems bent on sabotaging his party’s best re-election candidates more directly. In state after state, he has driven strong, if independently minded, Republican lawmakers into retirement and favoured GOP candidates who pledge loyalty to Trump over incumbents with a better chance of turning back popular Democratic party challengers.

Article content

He has repeatedly inflicted harm on the Republican leaders of the House and Senate by trying to force them to adopt deeply unpopular positions or pass legislation that has no chance of success. He has also pressed GOP lawmakers to cancel their August recess, crucial time for campaigning back in their states and districts.

Article content

Most importantly, Trump has devoted much attention to issues he cares about personally — a new ballroom for the White House, new monuments in Washington and political revenge against his enemies — while all but ignoring the problems of consumer price inflation that his war on Iran and tariff policies are helping sustain for voters across the nation.