How UN chief Antonio Guterres tests the limits of quiet diplomacy

The elder statesman

On taking the reins arsenic UN Secretary-General, Guterres pledged “a surge successful diplomacy for peace”. In practice, of course, this was acold easier said than done.

Like astatine the UNHCR, Guterres implemented organization reforms arsenic UN main and his aboriginal years were shaped by protracted wars successful Syria and Yemen, the Rohingya situation successful Myanmar, the renewed struggle successful Libya, the anti-multilateralist attack of Donald Trump’s archetypal statesmanlike word and the pandemic. Security Council divisions, however, constricted what helium could execute erstwhile it came to the biggest conflicts.

Then, connected February 24, 2022, Ukrainians and Russians awoke to quality that their countries were successful a full-scale war. Russian tanks rolled implicit Ukraine’s eastbound frontier portion terrified civilians sought structure successful Kyiv’s Metro.

The UN Security Council convened and Guterres condemned the invasion. “In the sanction of humanity, bring your troops backmost to Russia,” helium implored President Vladimir Putin, who ignored the plea.

On April 26 , Guterres met with Putin to sermon evacuation routes from besieged areas, specified arsenic the metropolis of Mariupol, and aboriginal that week helium met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Guterres’s diplomacy saw immoderate archetypal success. In 2022, helium brokered the Black Sea atom deal, enabling the harmless transition of Ukrainian ships carrying atom exports from the country’s confederate ports, arsenic good arsenic Russian vessels carrying nutrient and fertiliser.

But beyond these humanitarian initiatives, he’s been little palmy successful handling the war’s thorny politics. In 2024, Zelenskyy spurned Guterres’s planned sojourn to Kyiv aft the UN main attended the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) acme successful Kazan, Russia, wherever helium shook Putin’s manus and called for a “just peace”.

By this point, Putin was wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged warfare crimes. Guterres’s determination to be the acme and conscionable Putin drew crisp disapproval from Ukrainian officials, European leaders and quality rights groups.

Then, connected October 7, 2023, different struggle erupted arsenic Hamas-led fighters launched a astonishment onslaught connected Israel, sidesplitting much than 1,100 Israelis and overseas nationals, including hundreds of revellers astatine a euphony festival. The Israeli effect was a dense bombardment of Gaza, including attacks connected hospitals, exile camps and designated “safe zones”. An estimated 75,000 Palestinians had been violently killed by aboriginal 2025 and the UN’s autarkic Commission of Inquiry concluded past twelvemonth that Israel had committed genocide successful Gaza, a uncovering Israel rejects.

Two weeks aft the archetypal attack, Guterres drew crisp condemnation from Israeli leaders for saying October 7th “did not hap successful a vacuum” – referring to the blockade of Gaza and the ongoing concern of the West Bank – and calling for a ceasefire. Guterres clarified his remarks, stressing that “the grievances of the Palestinian radical cannot warrant the appalling attacks by Hamas,” arsenic helium kept pushing for a ceasefire.

On December 6, 2023, Guterres invoked the seldom utilized Article 99 of the UN Charter, bringing to the attraction of the UN’s 15-member Security Council “any contented that whitethorn aggravate existing threats to the attraction of planetary bid and security”, calling connected its members to “avert a humanitarian catastrophe” successful Gaza and property for a ceasefire. Two days later, the United States vetoed the resolution.

In October 2024, Israel declared Guterres persona non grata, barring him from the state aft accusing him of failing to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s rocket onslaught connected Israel. This deepened the rift betwixt Israel and the UN, limiting his quality to prosecute with Israeli leaders.

So Guterres has failed to marque important advancement successful Gaza oregon Ukraine, 2 of the large conflicts of his tenure. Part of that is owed to the earthy constraints of the job, having to support a committedness to planetary instrumentality portion remaining a credible broker betwixt planetary powers. He cannot enforce settlements without the practice of the parties progressive and the backing of large powers.

The Security Council is often divided by the competing interests of Russia, China and the Western powers, and the UN’s enactment has been analyzable by governments — including the United States nether Trump — that person challenged multilateral institutions oregon disputed the authorization of planetary ineligible bodies.

A 2021 International Crisis Group assessment recovered that immoderate officials progressive successful Middle East mediation viewed Guterres arsenic reluctant to expend his idiosyncratic governmental superior connected risky bid initiatives. The appraisal reflected his attack earlier the Gaza warfare and the penetration of Ukraine, but it possibly explains his benignant of relying connected envoys, humanitarian advocacy and quiescent diplomacy alternatively than high-stakes idiosyncratic mediation.

Others accidental that portion helium takes a keen involvement successful crises worldwide, helium tin trust excessively overmuch connected satellite leaders’ mentation of events. During Ethiopia’s Tigray war, for instance, helium publically relayed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assurance that Eritrean troops had not entered Tigrayan territory, isolated from a disputed borderline area. Abiy aboriginal acknowledged that Eritrean forces had entered Tigray.

Guterres has besides been cautious astir deploying accepted UN Blue Helmet missions, questioning whether they tin run efficaciously without a viable governmental process and capable security. That caution was disposable successful Haiti. Asked to see a wider scope of UN options arsenic gangs tightened their grip connected Port-au-Prince, Guterres ruled retired deploying a accepted Blue Helmet mission. Instead, helium projected that the UN money and run a logistics bureau to enactment the Kenyan-led multinational unit portion strengthening the UN’s governmental ngo and providing constricted assistance to Haiti’s police.

“Before Guterres came to office, determination had been a dependable enlargement of UN peacekeeping,” explained Daniel Forti, a UN specializer astatine Crisis Group.

“There was a worrying inclination that a fig of missions – including erstwhile ones deployed to Somalia and the existent 1 successful the Central African Republic and the DRC – were being asked to enforce bid successful places wherever determination was nary bid to keep.”

“Guterres was incredibly sceptical of this benignant of attack and sought to promote others to instrumentality connected those responsibilities and person a overmuch narrower mentation of what UN Blue Helmets tin really bash successful definite types of conflicts,” helium added.

When it comes to existent peace-making, Guterres prefers the UN to refrain from taking decisions connected behalf of locals and alternatively delegates to determination players. In the lawsuit of Ethiopia, helium wanted the African Union (AU) to instrumentality a much salient relation and called for much backing for AU efforts.

His reluctance to prosecute much afloat whitethorn stem from idiosyncratic experience. In 2017, the secretary-general took portion successful Cyprus reunification talks that collapsed, leaving him “visibly despondent.” Likewise, successful 2019, helium visited Libya to effort to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table, lone for rebels to equine an violative connected Tripoli. Before leaving the country, Guterres said Libya near him with “a heavy heart”.

According to Forti, these experiences whitethorn person besides near him wary.

“At first, erstwhile helium came into office, helium emphasised a precise beardown docket connected struggle prevention,” Forti said.

“But aft a fewer instances wherever Guterres tried to get personally progressive successful peace-making efforts, including successful Cyprus, helium got burned rather rapidly and didn’t amusement an inclination to persevere with governmental processes implicit a agelong play of time.”

Any anticipation of speedy wins oregon decisive outcomes proved a batch harder.

“From that moment, he’s shown little and little inclination to beryllium straight involved,” Forti added.

Rather than uncovering solutions to conflicts, helium says, Guterres alternatively focuses connected humanitarian relief, ensuring lifesaving assistance reaches civilians.

Guterres himself has admitted that satellite bid is “a Sisyphean task”, referring to the mythical Greek king cursed to support pushing a boulder up a elevation lone for it to rotation backmost down again. Perhaps drafting a acquisition from that, Guterres has channelled immoderate of his vigor into areas wherever helium felt helium could marque much of a quality – notably, the clime crisis.

“Half of humanity is successful the information portion from floods, droughts, utmost storms and wildfires,” helium told satellite leaders successful 2022. “No federation is immune. Yet we proceed to provender our fossil substance addiction.”

“We person a prime – corporate enactment oregon corporate suicide. It is successful our hands.”

Paloma Costa, a 34-year-old Brazilian clime activistic who served connected Guterres’s 2020 inaugural Youth Advisory Group connected Climate Change, said the secretary-general sees planetary warming arsenic a large occupation facing nine and has actively supported youth-led movements warring for their future.

“He has been precise committed to paying attraction to the [problem], to listening to young radical who person been taking connected this docket for ourselves and putting up our voices powerfully against decisions that are destroying our communal environment.”

The advisory group’s responsibilities included compiling reports and demands from young radical crossed the globe and summarising them for Guterres.

“He made definite determination was unit connected the planetary level due to the fact that for a agelong time, the clime discussions were not advancing precise much,” Costa said.

In doing so, Guterres has emphasised that poorer, underdeveloped nations successful the Global South endure the astir from biology catastrophes and that wealthier countries indispensable instrumentality connected their just stock of the responsibility. He has called for windfall taxes connected the fossil substance industry, telling planetary delegates successful 2022 that “polluters indispensable pay”. He besides praised the constitution of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), agreed to astatine a 2022 clime conference, to assistance susceptible countries header with clime emergencies. But these initiatives person yet to beryllium applied astatine the standard needed and the FRLD remains severely underfunded.

“Even though helium didn’t ever person an contiguous answer, I ever felt embraced due to the fact that helium ever made definite we were understood and taken seriously, and determination was ever a follow-up to fto america cognize if thing could not beryllium resolved, wherefore it could not beryllium resolved,” Costa said.

Consistent with his non-confrontational approach, however, Guterres has stopped abbreviated of naming circumstantial parties oregon countries unduly liable for the warming planet.

Guterres has besides warned against the unchecked improvement of artificial quality (AI). Since 2023, helium has sought to marque AI governance a cardinal UN concern, pressing governments to make planetary safeguards and springiness processing countries a greater dependable successful shaping the technology. He has besides called for a legally binding prohibition connected lethal autonomous weapons.

In July, helium warned that AI could go 1 of humanity’s top opportunities — oregon 1 of its top dangers — depending connected whether governments and exertion firms hold to govern it effectively.