How many times were the US and Iran on the verge of a deal?

While a bid statement remains elusive connected the 100th time since the US and Israel archetypal launched strikes connected Tehran connected February 28, the US and Iran person appeared to travel adjacent to a woody connected respective occasions.

The warfare began with Operation Epic Fury, the associated run waged by the United States and Israel against Iran astatine the extremity of February. Iran retaliated by attacking some Israel and US subject assets successful the Gulf.

Armed hostilities mostly subsided aft the impermanent Pakistan-mediated ceasefire began connected April 8. Direct talks successful Islamabad fell isolated connected April 12 and the 2 sides person exchanged a bid of proposals for bid via Pakistan since then.

However, respective flare ups since person escalated fears that full‑scale warring could resume.

Here is what happened each clip the US and Iran were adjacent to a deal, and wherefore the imaginable of bid fell through.

Direct talks successful Islamabad

What happened: On April 11 and 12, representatives from the US and Iran met successful the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for the archetypal nonstop talks betwixt the 2 sides since the 1979 Islamic gyration successful Iran.

The US delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance and included Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iranian negotiators included Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Bagheri Kani, a elder subordinate of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and main atomic negotiator.

Ahead of those talks, Ghalibaf publically stated that for Iran, a ceasefire by Israel successful Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian assets overseas were non-negotiables for Tehran. Israel has carried retired near-daily strikes connected Lebanon since March 2, and present occupies astir one-fifth of the country, since Iran-backed Hezbollah launched strikes connected bluish Israel successful retaliation for the archetypal attacks connected Tehran.

“This is simply a make-or-break infinitesimal for lasting peace,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said the nighttime earlier the Islamabad talks.

What went wrong: There had been speech of extending the negotiations into a 3rd day. Iranian officials were reportedly acceptable to stay, suggesting they wanted to support talking. The US delegation, however, decided to wrapper up. “We person been astatine it present for 21 hours,” Vance said aft the talks. “The bully quality is that we’ve had substantive discussions. The atrocious quality is that we person not reached an agreement.”

Vance said that portion Washington was flexible, Tehran had refused to judge its “final and champion offer”.

“We request to spot an affirmative committedness that they volition not question a atomic weapon… not conscionable now, but for the agelong term,” Vance said. “We haven’t seen that yet.”

Iran’s ambassador successful Islamabad deemed the talks “not an event, but a process” which “laid the foundation” for aboriginal engagement. However, the US and Iran person not held immoderate nonstop talks since then.

Iran’s atomic capabilities person emerged arsenic a large bony of contention betwixt the US and Iran.

Iran is believed to beryllium holding an estimated 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent, abbreviated of the 90 percent required for weapons-grade material, but astatine the constituent astatine which it becomes overmuch quicker to scope 90 percent.

Tehran has said for years that its atomic programme is for civilian purposes lone and it does not mean to physique atomic weapons. But Israel, the US and different Western countries allege that Iran has been preparing to person the capableness to physique atomic weapons.

They reason the 60 percent enrichment level achieved truthful acold is good supra what is needed for a civilian atomic vigor programme – betwixt 3 and 5 percent enrichment. The US wants this banal of 60 percent enriched uranium to beryllium handed over, but Iran rejects that.

Naysan Rafati, a elder Iran expert astatine the International Crisis Group deliberation vessel told Al Jazeera that successful each lawsuit that the US and Iran person been adjacent to an statement “there’s been a operation of advancement connected definite issues, and deadlock connected others. So adjacent isn’t bully capable – adjacent if there’s 95 percent agreement, the remaining 5 percent tends to beryllium the hardest.”

Rafati said that erstwhile it comes to Iran’s atomic programme, determination are differences connected some the substance and sequencing of an agreement.

“Tehran wants to defer the details for consequent talks, portion Washington seeks much clarity from the outset. So it’s a operation of the acquainted – Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and the aboriginal trajectory of its atomic enactment – and the much recent.”

What happened after: Within four days of the ceasefire and the illness of nonstop talks, Washington announced a naval blockade of shipping successful and retired of Iranian ports successful a bid to curtail Tehran’s quality to rise revenues from lipid income – a large escalation that undercut immoderate consciousness of momentum.

Lebanon ‘ceasefire’

What happened: On April 16, Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had reached a 10-day ceasefire to let negotiations for a much imperishable information and bid statement to continue. That came aft six weeks of warring betwixt Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group, Hezbollah.

The clashes betwixt Israel and Hezbollah person been the astir direct, high‑intensity beforehand betwixt Iran’s main determination state and a US‑backed service during the warfare with Iran. Tehran has repeatedly signalled that an extremity to hostilities successful Lebanon is simply a prerequisite for immoderate broader bid plan. As a result, the Lebanon ceasefire raised hopes that it could unfastened the doorway to a wider, much durable ceasefire with Iran itself.

Since March 2, much than 3,000 radical person been killed successful Lebanon, and much than 1 cardinal person been forced from their homes.

What went wrong: Israel continued strikes connected Lebanon contempt the “ceasefire”.

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) an independent, humanitarian, non-governmental organisation, estimates that astir 600 radical were killed successful the period aft the ceasefire was announced.

“There are definite reddish lines each broadside has held that proved irreconcilable. And arsenic with immoderate agreement, adjacent if you are capable to adjacent gaps betwixt the respective positions, circumstantial points of contention tin foil the wider process,” Rafati said.

Iran has maintained that bid successful Lebanon is 1 specified reddish line.

Iran hints it volition unbend Hormuz restrictions

What happened: The time aft the “ceasefire” was announced connected April 17, Araghchi wrote successful an X post: “In enactment with the ceasefire successful Lebanon, the transition for each commercialized vessels done Strait of Hormuz is declared wholly unfastened for the remaining play of ceasefire”.

Trump confirmed successful a societal media station that the strait was “completely unfastened and acceptable for concern and afloat passage”.

The Strait of Hormuz has besides been a large chokepoint successful bid talks.

Since aboriginal March, Iran has restricted shipping done the strait, the constrictive waterway linking Gulf lipid producers to the unfastened water and done which 20 percent of the world’s lipid and liquefied earthy state (LNG) supplies were shipped earlier the war. Iran has allowed transition by vessels from prime countries, but they are required to negociate transit with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – with immoderate reportedly paying arsenic overmuch arsenic $2m per vessel astatine 1 constituent during the war.

In its erstwhile proposals to extremity the war, Iran has projected charging transit fees oregon tolls. Washington has repeatedly rejected that prospect.

What went wrong: Despite Araghchi’s announcement, Trump announced successful a Truth Social station that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would “remain successful afloat force” until Iran reached a woody with the US to extremity the war.

Iran rejected that, saying that if its ain ships were incapable to pass, nary others would beryllium allowed to bash so. It has since fired astatine oregon seized foreign-flagged ships trying to sail done the strait.

“Unlike erstwhile rounds of negotiations, which focused chiefly connected Iran’s atomic programme, the warfare has brought the Strait of Hormuz to the forefront,” Rafati said.

“The Iranians privation to support immoderate signifier of power implicit the Strait of Hormuz, portion the US – and galore different governments would hold – question a instrumentality to the pre-war presumption quo, wherever navigation was not nether menace of fire, and not taxable to tolls oregon work charges,” Rafati said.

“Washington besides wants to minimise oregon debar a fiscal reprieve for Tehran, beryllium that successful the signifier of sanctions alleviation oregon entree to assets, without important atomic concessions.”

Trump loses his temper with Netanyahu

What happened: On June 1, Trump had a telephone telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu astir Israel’s latest escalation successful confederate Lebanon, US quality outlet Axios reported, citing 2 unnamed US officials and a 3rd root briefed connected the call.

The time before, Israeli forces captured the strategically important Beaufort Castle and its surrounding ridge adjacent to Nabatieh successful confederate Lebanon overlooking the Litani River, with views each the mode to bluish Israel.

Trump’s telephone to Netanyahu besides came aft Iran threatened to wantonness negotiations implicit Israel’s continued attacks connected Lebanon. The sources told Axios that Trump accused Netanyahu of ingratitude and called the Israeli PM “crazy”.

This sparked hopes that Trump mightiness yet endanger to retreat enactment for Israel and unit it to cease attacks connected Lebanon.

What went wrong: While Axios cited an unnamed Israeli root saying that Israel planned to cease its attacks connected Lebanon, the attacks nevertheless continued.

On Friday, Israel struck the Naqoura area, contempt the announcement of yet different US-brokered conditional ceasefire connected Thursday. Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) has reported that an Israeli aerial raid overnight connected a gathering successful the municipality of Doueir, successful the Nabatieh territory of confederate Lebanon, killed 1 person. The Israeli subject besides issued forced displacement orders for Aarnaya, Aanqoun and Kfar Kila, 3 villages and towns successful confederate Lebanon.