Are prices really dropping, as Trump claims?

United States President Donald Trump has taken to societal media to boast astir the authorities of the system amid a looming bid woody betwixt the US and Iran, which yesterday signed a memorandum of knowing (MoU) to extremity the US-Israel warfare connected Iran.

In a station connected his societal media level Truth Social, the president claimed that “OIL IS FLOWING” and added that “THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!)”

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While immoderate of his claims are accurate, others are misleading. Al Jazeera takes a look:

‘Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD High’

That is existent specifically for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That scale deed a grounds precocious of 51,999.67 for its adjacent connected Tuesday amid the imaginable of a ceasefire and a rally for the recently listed SpaceX.

The Dow slipped from that precocious connected Wednesday amid the US Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would support the benchmark involvement complaint successful the people scope of 3.5-3.75 percent, and closed down connected Wednesday astatine 51,494.99. The Dow has since jumped 0.35 percent successful midday trading connected Thursday astatine 51,671.

The Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 some slipped.

However, this whitethorn not straight interaction the 38 percent of Americans who bash not put successful the banal market.

“The thought that the banal marketplace is doing good does not bespeak people’s experiences. There’s a saying that the banal marketplace is not the economy, and that’s an important happening to support successful mind,” Michael Klein, prof of planetary economical affairs astatine The Fletcher School astatine Tufts University, told Al Jazeera.

And that lived acquisition is astatine the petrol presumption and astatine the market store.

‘Prices are dropping’

Petrol prices person started to tumble successful the past fewer days. The mean terms of a gallon of petrol (3.78 litres) connected Thursday is astatine $3.99, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks regular state prices. That’s down from a precocious of $4.48 successful May, but inactive good supra $2.98, wherever prices were connected February 28 erstwhile the US and Israel archetypal struck Iran.

Despite the deal, experts judge that a petrol terms diminution volition plateau for wide consumers arsenic the US strategical petroleum reserve, which earlier this week reached its lowest level since 1983, is refilled, each portion lipid extraction and shipping bottlenecks measurement connected proviso chains.

“The persistence of the terms spikes is the cardinal issue. Transportation, rerouting, security premiums, and manufacturing costs don’t normalise overnight, truthful adjacent erstwhile lipid stabilises, the outgo basal crossed the proviso concatenation volition enactment elevated,” Tammy Kulesa, manager of merchandise selling for proviso concatenation execution astatine Blue Yonder, a proviso concatenation absorption firm, said successful remarks provided to Al Jazeera.

Mark Jones, prof of governmental subject astatine Rice University successful Houston, Texas, says prices volition not instrumentality to prewar levels until the past 4th oregon adjacent of 2027.

“Even erstwhile everybody believes the truce is going to clasp [and] there’s nary information going done the Strait of Hormuz, those tankers instrumentality months to scope their last destination and travel back,” Jones told Al Jazeera. “So the quality to replenish the stocks is going to instrumentality until, I think, the aboriginal autumn [third quarter].”

Consumer inflation, which has jumped astatine the fastest gait successful 3 years and is astatine 4.2 percent, has driven prices up connected respective cardinal goods and has weighed connected consumers. While vigor prices person risen by astir 8 percent successful the past 2 months alone, prices astatine the supermarket person jumped by 0.1 percent successful May from the period anterior aft a 0.7 percent summation successful April, with the highest increases successful goods similar bakery products, cereals, nonalcoholic beverages, arsenic good arsenic effect and vegetables.

“There are existent problems facing a batch of people. Prices are high, and wages person not kept up with prices. So people’s existent purchasing powerfulness has fallen,” Klein said.

Supermarket chains person taken notice. Kroger, the largest supermarket concatenation successful the US, said connected Thursday that it volition chopped prices connected thousands of products wrong its astir 3,000 stores nationwide. This comes amid accrued unit from Costco and Walmart for worth shoppers.

“Customers are being much deliberate with their spending and astatine times, buying america selectively. We’re getting excessively galore promotional trips and not capable of the afloat basket,” Kroger CEO Greg Foran said successful a statement.

‘Jobs are astatine records’

Jobs are not astatine grounds levels, contempt Trump’s assertions.

The US system added 172,000 jobs successful May. The highest during the 2nd Trump word was 214,000, successful March. By comparison, connected average, 300,000 jobs were added monthly nether his predecessor, erstwhile US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, with immoderate months overmuch higher – including July 2021, erstwhile the system added 943,000 jobs, albeit that was connected the backmost of the COVID-19 pandemic arsenic businesses rushed to prosecute aft monolithic layoffs.

Under Trump, determination person been respective months of constricted occupation maturation that person been hyper-focused connected circumstantial sectors similar healthcare. On average, employers added lone 15,000 jobs a period successful 2025. Meanwhile, the US system mislaid 92,000 jobs this twelvemonth successful February.

Layoffs are besides connected the upswing. Job cuts jumped 16 percent betwixt April and May, marking the astir layoffs since May 2020 during the tallness of the pandemic, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas, with artificial quality (AI) arsenic a driving unit down the cuts. Slightly much than 97,000 radical mislaid their jobs successful May.

‘Oil is flowing’

Overnight, 12.5 cardinal barrels of crude lipid travelled done the Strait of Hormuz, done which astir a 5th of the world’s lipid is usually shipped, according to US Vice President JD Vance. However, information from Kpler shows that question done the strait is inactive low, with six verified crossings connected June 17.

With the strait starting to open, lipid prices tumbled to their lowest levels since the aboriginal days of the warfare arsenic the impermanent woody to extremity warring and propulsion backmost sanctions elevated unit connected planetary supply.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 dropped $0.78 oregon 1 percent to $76.51 successful midday trading.

Shipments of liquefied earthy state (LNG) person besides ramped up, and a QatarEnergy LNG vas has returned to Ras Laffan, wherever it has loaded much than 209,000 cubic metres, according to Kplr.