GOLDSTEIN: Is Canada becoming a one-party state?

The federal Liberals are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power and have no need to face voters again until 2029

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Published Apr 25, 2026  •  Last updated 8 minutes ago  •  4 minute read

Mark Carney strikes a fighter's pose at a campaign rally while wearing a Montreal Canadiens jersey on April 22, 2025. Photo by John Mahoney /Postmedia Network

While the federal Liberals smugly refer to themselves as Canada’s natural governing party, the historical record suggests that may be true, despite the danger it poses to democracy.

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They’ve been in charge of the country 70% of the time since 1900.

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They are currently on a 14-year run of uninterrupted power starting in 2015, without needing to face voters again until 2029.

If their current polling numbers hold until 2029, they would win a massive majority government, guaranteeing uninterrupted Liberal rule until 2034, or for almost two decades.

Starting in 2015, the Liberals – their power base centred in eastern and central Canada and vote-rich cities such as Toronto – have defeated the Conservatives in four consecutive elections, securing an after-the-vote majority government in the wake of the 2025 election, courtesy of four Conservative floor crossers.

The addition of one defector from the NDP is less significant than the NDP’s collapse ever since the 2011 election.

That was when the NDP reached its electoral high point under the late Jack Layton, winning 103 seats and 30.6% of the popular vote, thus becoming the official opposition to a Conservative majority government led by Stephen Harper, the last time the Tories won a federal election.

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In last year’s election, the NDP captured a mere 6.29% of the popular vote and just seven seats, now down to five after the one MP defected to the Liberals and another quit to run in the Quebec election this fall.

Conservatives need viable NDP to split progressive vote

Given that the Conservatives need a viable NDP to split the progressive vote with the Liberals to win, the demise of the NDP is good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, bad news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.

Were the NDP to disappear – a possibility – it would further solidify the Liberals in future elections.

In the modern era, the record of the Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau governments all suggest that the “best before date” for any government before it is replaced by the opposition occurs after roughly 10 years in power, give or take a few years on either side.

That was what everyone expected would happen to the Trudeau Liberals heading into last year’s federal election with Poilievre and the Conservatives returning to power with a majority government after a decade in opposition.

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Then Trudeau quit and the Liberals elected Carney as their leader, prompting one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history and breaking the roughly 10-year pattern of Liberals and Conservatives trading power.

The Liberals, who could easily have fallen into third place in last year’s election under Trudeau, instead achieved a strong minority government under Carney.

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Floor-crossing elevated Liberals to majority government

Since then, floor-crossing has elevated the Liberals to a majority government of 174 seats – recapturing direct control of the House of Commons for the first time since 2015 – compared to 169 seats, soon to be 168, for the combined opposition parties in the 343-seat legislature.

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One of the many political advantages of this for the Liberals is that they’ve regained control of Commons committees, reducing the ability of the opposition to influence legislation and hold the government to account on ethical issues.

Carney’s combination of anti-Americanism and economic nationalism in the age of Donald Trump has clearly struck a chord with Canadian voters.

That’s been re-enforced by favourable polling showing a double-digit Liberal lead nationally and liberal media coverage of Carney that often borders on hagiography, similar to Justin Trudeau’s early years in power

Indeed, much of the Canadian media today seems more interested in speculating about how many more Conservatives will defect to the Liberals and how long Poilievre can last as leader, as opposed to the media’s self-described role of holding the government to account.

Conservatives allege legacy print media beholden to federal Liberals

Frustration over this was voiced last week by Conservative MP John Brassard, chair of the Commons ethics committee – until the Liberals take control of it – who admonished reporters to “do your goddamn job” arguing the media have become so Liberal-friendly that the, “Opposition party is held to a greater account than the government.

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“It’s a sad indictment on where we are with respect to oversight and accountability and transparency when there are YouTubers who are finding out more about what’s happening within the Liberal government and the scandals and the connections of well-connected insiders, lobbyists and family members,” Brassard said, as reported by the independent news agency Blacklock’s Reporter.

Conservatives allege the legacy print media is beholden to the federal Liberals because they are being subsidized by the federal government (which the newspaper industry lobbied for) – a separate issue from the $1.4 billion the government supplies annually to the state-funded CBC, with Carney pledging a $150-million increase in the last federal budget.

Given all this, it is understandable many Canadians believe much of their media is in a conflict of interest regarding their coverage of the Liberals.

While, as the cliche goes, a week is a lifetime in politics, the possibility of an emerging federal Liberal dynasty similar – for example, to the 44-year reign of the Progressives Conservatives in Alberta from 1971 to 2015, or the 42-year rule of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario from 1943 to 1985 – is not beyond the realm of possibility.

(Postmedia – owners of the Toronto Sun, National Post and other media properties – receives government support to the newspaper industry.)

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