Fewer people are having babies in Canada and the U.S. and the government is out of ideas

Article content

Stone, meanwhile, says policymakers shy away from serious pro-natalist spending — whether it’s true baby bonuses or worthwhile tax credits — claiming it’s too costly.

Article content

“We should be talking about whether we should raise the child allowance or the child tax credit or whatever by $5,000, not to $5,000,” said Stone.

Article content

“They say it’s so expensive. But the total cost of that would still be a fraction of what we spend on pensions every year, and that’s the real problem.

Article content

“What we’re paying for old people is so high that there’s no fiscal space to do anything to support fertility.” 

Article content

Immigration policy is often used as a tool for boosting numbers in times of need. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau, for example, ramped up immigration to address labour shortages, but the housing shortage has led to cuts. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has slashed irregular migration via deportations.

Article content

But in small ways, immigration can help with fertility, says Giovanni Peri, professor of international economics at the University of California, Davis.

Article content

“Immigration will not adjust the fertility; it will just adjust the number of people who are here,” he said, noting that a country will have less population decline for a given fertility of native workers. It also means more working-age people who might have more children, at least for the first generation or so.

Article content

Article content

But in Canada, immigration is more selective. Ottawa seeks candidates with higher education levels, and these new entrants do not have children at a higher rate than other Canadians.

Article content

No amount of immigration changes how citizens reproduce, according to Stone.

Article content

“If 50 immigrants move into my neighbourhood, that might mean that we can still staff the fire department,” he said. “But it doesn’t replace the fact that I am not married and don’t have kids.”

Article content

And researchers say that’s the biggest issue: While many women may opt not to have children, many are simply not having or are unable to have the children they want. 

Article content

“People want to have more kids than they’re having,” said Stone.

Article content

But he, unlike most demographers, says low fertility is reversible.

Article content

“The idea that this is inevitable is just nonsense,” he said, pointing to places like Israel, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and historical U.S. states, where birth rates have rebounded in the past. 

Article content

For that, Ottawa and Washington need to provide more housing, he said, in addition to generous family tax benefits, child-care and leave policies, and fix “marriage penalties” — tax laws that reward singles over married couples.

Article content

And if they don’t?

Article content

“You’ll have generations of people approaching retirement who feel disconnected from the next generation, feel miserable about their choices … a society where people are just more miserable.”

Article content

National Post

Article content

Article content