Mohamed Fahmy: The forever war for the Strait of Hormuz

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Something felt off to me. It echoed President George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” declaration during the Iraq War and Operation Iraqi Freedom weeks into the U.S. led invasion — an assertion that proved far removed from reality. I covered that war from day one in 2003, and the outcome was anything but accomplished. 

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In recent days, the United States initiated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports and shipping routes in the Gulf of Oman, designed to intensify pressure on Tehran after diplomatic talks collapsed and tensions escalated over the Strait of Hormuz.  

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Iran responded by further disrupting maritime traffic in the strait, including the use of mines and other asymmetric tactics that effectively constrained commercial shipping and deepened the instability in the waterway.  

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The resulting volatility in global supply routes contributed to a sharp spike in oil prices, as markets reacted to the growing risk of prolonged disruption in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. 

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In geopolitics, a blockade is already a breach of a ceasefire or an act of war in all but name. Yet what ultimately proved the final breaking point — pushing Iran to escalate fully, target vessels, and unleash waves of missiles and drones toward the UAE while risking outright war — remains far less clear. 

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Project Freedom, a U.S. naval mission announced by Trump on Sunday, is intended to assist and “guide” neutral commercial vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Officially launched today, the initiative aims to ensure the safe passage of approximately 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers caught in the crossfire. 

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U.S. Central Command has deployed guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, unmanned systems, and roughly 15,000 personnel to support the operation 

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The presence of U.S. war machinery in such a fragile stand-off may itself have been the final nail in an already collapsing ceasefire. 

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For Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz remains its most powerful strategic deterrent. As a vital global chokepoint, it gives Tehran significant leverage over energy flows and maritime traffic, shaping both the broader balance of escalation.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz cost Gulf nations an estimated $50 billion in the first month alone, contributing to a sharp spike in oil prices and a significant reduction in output. Middle East oil exports fell by at least 60 per cent, underscoring the scale of disruption to global energy flows. 

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In characteristic Trump language, the U.S. president told Fox News that any attack on U.S. ships would be met with overwhelming force, warning that the perpetrators would be “blown off the face of the earth.” 

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Toward the end of the waves of Iranian attacks, the UAE Ministry of Defence announced that Iran had fired twelve ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones — figures broadly consistent with the volume of projectiles launched during the opening days and weeks of the conflict. 

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U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal advocate of regime change in Iran, described the attack as a clear breach of the ceasefire. Trump, however, insisted that it was not. 

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Following the attack, Israel raised its defence readiness to the highest level. The Gulf state of Bahrain also activated its defensive capabilities and declared a state of alert, amid fears of possible further strikes. 

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French President Emmanuel Macron denounced the strikes as “unjustified and unacceptable,” while British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reaffirmed that the United Kingdom would continue to “support the defence of our partners in the Gulf.”