Ex-DRC President Kabila’s alliance with M23 rebels: Why it matters

Former President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has officially allied with equipped rebel groups, raising fears of further escalation of an ongoing struggle successful the country’s eastbound that has already killed thousands.

Kabila connected Monday launched a caller political-military conjugation to regenerate the M23-AFC alliance, which is warring authorities forces and controls swaths of territory.

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The caller question volition “put an extremity to tyranny by immoderate means necessary, including the usage of force”, conjugation spokesperson Claude Ibalanky said, successful what appeared to beryllium a chilling menace to the authorities successful Kinshasa.

It comes precisely a twelvemonth aft Kabila was sentenced to decease by a subject tribunal for alleged links to the rebel groups.

The M23 situation has racked the mineral-rich eastbound DRC for astir 15 years. The United Nations says much than 7.8 cardinal radical are displaced portion 28 cardinal radical look nutrient shortages. An untold fig person died.

The United States and UN impeach Rwanda of backing M23. Kigali denies it.

Here’s what we know:

M23 rebels escort authorities soldiers and constabulary who surrendered to an undisclosed determination successful Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January 30, 2025 [Moses Sawasawa/AP]

What’s been announced?

Kabila introduced the caller alliance, the Front determination la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), from his residence successful Goma, confirming the DRC government’s accusations.

The erstwhile president said helium volition pb the alliance.

Corneille Nangaa, a Kabila state who served arsenic a erstwhile elections commissioner earlier leaving authorities to motorboat the Congo River Alliance (AFC), volition service arsenic deputy, alongside Bertrand Bisimwa, an M23 spokesman.

Freddy Kaniki, a aesculapian doc and elder M23 wellness official, volition service arsenic secretary-general, portion Sultani Makenga of the M23 volition beryllium the service main of the alliance.

Who is Kabila?

Kabila, 55, is the lad of erstwhile President Laurent Kabila.

He took bureau arsenic a 29-year-old backmost successful 2001 aft his begetter was assassinated. He antecedently served arsenic service main and fought successful the two Congo civilian wars, erstwhile Rwanda backed rebel groups against longtime Congolese person Mobutu Sese Seko.

Kabila’s term, which officially ended successful 2016, was marked by rights violations and corruption. He illegally delayed elections until 2018, citing elector registration challenges, and near bureau successful 2019.

Before helium stepped down, Kabila is believed to person signed a power-sharing woody with absorption campaigner and predetermination winner, existent President Felix Tshisekedi. Kabila’s allies were initially installed passim the furniture aft the deal, but successful 2020, Tshisekedi began removing them, arsenic their truce collapsed connected a bitter note.

Tshisekedi’s authorities besides launched corruption investigations against Kabila, forcing him into self-imposed exile successful South Africa successful 2023.

Why has Kabila joined the rebel alliance?

The erstwhile president’s latest determination is unsurprising; Kinshasa has agelong alleged his ties to the M23-AFC alliance.

Amid intensifying M23-AFC offensives past year, Kabila wrote a scathing sentiment portion successful South Africa’s Sunday Times, accusing Tshisekedi of mishandling the struggle and proposing a “12-point plan” to reconstruct peace. Reports besides emerged of Kabila’s sighting successful the eastbound rebel-held Goma, wherever helium owns homes.

Last October, a subject tribunal successful Kinshasa sentenced Kabila to decease connected charges of treason, warfare crimes, and different large offences for alleged collaboration with Rwanda and M23-AFC.

In April, Washington imposed sanctions connected Kabila, alleging that helium funded rebel groups.

What does M23-AFC want?

Eastern DRC has been engulfed successful unit for much than 30 years, and aggregate groups person been warring to predominate the region. The roots of the situation spell backmost to the 1994 genocide successful neighbouring Rwanda, the alleged harbouring of Hutu combatant groups successful the DRC successful its aftermath, Kigali’s determination to combat them, and deep-rooted tribalism.

The March 23 Movement (M23) emerged successful 2012 from the remnants of Congolese Tutsi combatant groups that fought successful the Second Congo War. It claims to beryllium warring for the rights of number Congolese Tutsis and seeks to unseat the authorities successful Kinshasa.

M23 archetypal took Goma and different towns successful the eastbound successful 2012 offensives; however, its fighters were pushed backmost by a peculiar UN unit warring alongside the FARDC – the Congolese military.

In 2022, amid Tshisekedi’s fallout with Kabila, M23 resurfaced with renewed force, allegedly backed by much than 4,000 Rwandan soldiers. Kigali has agelong accused successive governments successful Kinshasa of supporting the DRC-based Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) equipped group, which includes Hutu genocidaires.

In 2023, arsenic the M23 seized respective towns and the Congolese service fell back, Nangaa, the then-elections commissioner, besides fell retired with Tshisekedi – reportedly implicit his determination to tally successful elections. He past went into exile, formed the AFC, and allied with M23 arsenic its governmental arm.

In aboriginal 2024, AFC-M23 launched lightning offensives that saw it expanse crossed immense swaths of the east, rapidly seizing territory. Goma fell again to the AFC-M23 successful January 2025, pursuing dense battles that killed astir 3,000 civilians.

The rebels, who person been accused of civilian massacres, presently clasp North and South Kivu, wherever Kabila is from, including their capitals Goma and Bukavu, arsenic good arsenic borderline crossings with Rwanda and Uganda. Kampala has besides been accused of supporting M23.

What does this mean for the conflict?

Al Jazeera’s Alain Uaykani reported that Congolese are disquieted the struggle could escalate again, and that a fig of soldiers could defect to service their erstwhile boss.

There are besides fears that ongoing bid talks could collapse. In June 2025, DRC and Rwanda signed a US-led bid agreement.

In a abstracted process mediated by Qatar, the DRC and M23-AFC besides signed the Doha Framework past November and were meant to conscionable this month.

But the changes whitethorn not extremity the agreements betwixt the DRC and Rwanda, arsenic Kigali volition apt privation to proceed with the US-led talks, Bram Verelst of the Institute for Security Studies told Al Jazeera.

The existent threat, helium warned, lies to the Doha process.

“We are apt to spot a hardening of Kinshasa’s presumption toward the rebel question and Kabila, including efforts to isolate Kabila and FRN regionally,” Verelst noted.

“What this means for the struggle connected the crushed volition beryllium connected the capableness of Kabila to instrumentality power implicit the rebellion and to physique and grow alliances beyond North and South Kivu,” helium added.