Donald Trump appears poised to escalate Iran war after U.S., Israeli elections

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a midterm campaign rally in support of Georgia Republican Senate candidate, Rep. Mike Collins in Perry, Georgia, on Oct. 24, 2026. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

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A Middle East war that President Donald Trump said would be over in a matter of weeks now looks set to escalate as it enters its eighth month.

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Trump has repeatedly hinted that his forces in the Mideast would resume strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. The president has already sent a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 additional sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf to give U.S. commanders more options if he restarts hostilities.

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This week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also made an unannounced stop in Israel — which launched the war against Iran alongside the U.S.  — where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just days ahead of the Israeli leader’s sensitive reelection bid. Staffing at Mideast bases, which have been hit hard by Iranian counterstrikes, has reportedly been reduced.

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This week the U.S. State Department ordered the departure of some diplomats and families in Saudi Arabia, following the Iran-backed Houthis expanding the conflict into Saudi Arabia. Houthis have pummelled the Riyadh airport and energy facilities with drones and missiles, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.

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Against that backdrop, Iran is now bracing for a fresh U.S. bombing campaign around the midterms and is preparing to retaliate across the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, according to a person familiar with Tehran’s thinking.

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The period between the U.S. election and when the new Congress takes office in early January will be the most difficult period, and the only way out of the current conflict is a deal that allows both sides to claim a win, this person said, declining to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

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Some Gulf-state officials have a high degree of confidence that violence will resume, and said they fear it could be worse than before the pause, according to a person familiar with the UAE government’s thinking.

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“We’ve knocked the hell out of them — and we may do it a little bit further,” Trump told reporters Thursday, echoing that sentiment.

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Meanwhile, Iran is attacking more ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz — and causing more severe damage — than earlier in the conflict at it deploys guided missiles rather than attack drones, according to shipping and maritime security officials.

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“All indications point to a resumption of war and a major bombing campaign, although the timing remains uncertain,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an expert on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution.

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Trump’s own comments suggest strikes are unlikely ahead of the midterms on Nov. 3, where his Republican party faces the prospect of losing one chamber of Congress if not both, in part because of the war-related high fuel prices in the U.S.

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Renewed fighting could help Netanyahu force political rivals into a national unity government, while strikes could help Trump project a “dramatic show of force to project strength at home,” according to International Crisis Group Mideast expert Ali Vaez.