Despite majority mandate, experts warn Mark Carney’s problems aren’t over

It won't be smooth sailing for either prime minister or Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre, pundits say

Published Apr 15, 2026  •  3 minute read

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney (L) speaks with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre (R) in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill February 11, 2026 in Ottawa, Ontario. Photo by Dave Chan /AFP/Getty Images

OTTAWA — Poilievre’s problems are now Carney’s problems.

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As the federal Liberals celebrate their defection-fuelled majority mandate after Monday’s byelection wins, some pundits are saying the way ahead for the Mark Carney government won’t be entirely smooth sailing — even with Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre’s hand removed from the helm.

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Political pundit Stephen Taylor, a partner at Shift Media, told the Toronto Sun that cobbling together an extra-electoral majority has resulted in a parliamentary session where trust is optional and floor-crossing is the norm, something he said won’t sit well with the Liberal caucus.

“A slim majority will be difficult for the Prime Minister to handle and the poor vetting and tenuous loyalty suffered by Poilievre now becomes Carney’s problem in a much more fragile caucus,” Taylor said. “While a majority projects confidence on the surface, it’s much more brittle underneath — expect Avi Lewis to enjoy wedging the Liberals in Parliament, and expect Poilievre to join in, once he’s licked his wounds.”

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Conservatives maintain united front

Indeed, rumours persist that the five Tories to cross the floor to the Liberals won’t be the last — adding more fuel to the blazing bonfire of rumours that Poilievre’s time as Conservative leader is numbered.

To their credit, the Conservative caucus publicly maintains unwavering support for Poilievre, with MPs telling reporters outside of Wednesday’s caucus meeting that they’re united and strong.

Party delegates gave Poilievre a strong 87% approval rating at their January convention in Calgary — an approval rating that even surpassed Stephen Harper’s 84% after the 2005 election loss.

As well, last year’s federal election saw the Tories grow by 25 seats in the House of Commons, flip 17 ridings from the Liberals, and snagged 41.3% of the popular vote — their best outcome since the 1988 federal election, which secured Brian Mulroney his second-straight Progressive Conservative majority government.

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill MP Costas Menegakis told reporters outside of West Block on Wednesday their meeting was a positive one.

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“It was very, very positive, we’re really focusing on what Canadians want us to focus on, and that’s what we’re talking about,” he said, adding he could “care less” about what the floor-crossers are doing.

Poilievre’s problems aren’t over

Sharan Kaur, Liberal strategist and principal at Navigator, told the Sun it’s notable that his high approval rating didn’t carry over to high Tory voter turnout during Monday’s byelections. 

“He won by a pretty high number at his convention, and I think people were expecting that as he walked out of that, that momentum would carry on,” she said.

“It’s a bit of an alarming indicator for him as leader — what’s going on in your caucus that is making someone like (Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn) Gladu leave?”

Kaur said Monday’s majority isn’t the end of problems for Poilievre.

“I actually think he’s in a lot of trouble,” she said. “I think it’s in his best interest to stay quiet for a while, because now that the Liberals have their majority, they can be their own worst enemies — when you’re in a position where you have what you want it’s easy to mess up, and I think that’s what Poilievre is going to be waiting for.”

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Challenges are generational

Alexander Brown, director of the National Citizens Coalition, said the Tories are faced with the harsh reality of years relegated to the opposition, with fears surrounding Trump and trade continuing to colour Canadian politics, and no path to electoral success in sight.

“The challenges are generational — Conservatives benefited immensely from a record voter turnout, and a record turnout of young voters to their cause,” he said. “How do you keep them happy and in the tent when their pocketbook issues rate differently than a Liberal support base that now trends overwhelmingly 50-plus?”

To move ahead, the Conservatives have to keep looking ahead, he said — adding that “President Trump” can’t be a forever excuse for the Tories.

“The solutions should be obvious: build pipelines; rebuild our immigration standard; send home those on expired and expiring ‘temporary’ status in areas we do not need; borrow from peer countries when it comes to layered, nuanced healthcare delivery; enforce, and reinforce our laws. No amount of tinkering around the margins will cut it,” he said.

“If Carney is indeed serious about taking advantage of the next few years, he’ll ditch the excuses, some of the empty Trudeau rhetoric, and actually build. With a majority mandate, mainly cobbled together with the help of a rogue’s gallery of CPC backbenchers, we’re far beyond time to put up or shut up.”

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