Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Player props, injury report and prediction | NBA

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By | 21 Oct 2026 10:34, Last updated: 21 Oct 2026 10:54

Quick summary

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Paycom Center · 2.30am BST (Friday)

Tip of the match

Thunder -8.5

Game total

Under 235.5

Key subordinate prop

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, implicit 29.5 points

Injury alert

Julian Strawther (DEN), out

Denver Nuggets statesman their 2026-27 play distant to Oklahoma City Thunder, who are playing their location opener astatine Paycom Center successful the aboriginal hours of Friday, successful a rematch of past season's four-game bid that the hosts won 3-1.

The Thunder are 1-0 aft winning astatine San Antonio Spurs connected Tuesday, whereas this is Denver's archetypal quality connected the NBA schedule.

How are Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder shaping up?

Form Guide

Denver Nuggets logo

Denver Nuggets

54-28 · 3rd successful the West

Last 5 (2026 play-offs vs. Timberwolves)

L L L W L

122.1PPG

116.9Opp PPG

121.2Off. rating

116.0Def. rating

Oklahoma City Thunder logo

Oklahoma City Thunder

64-18 · 1st successful the West

Last 5 (2026 West finals and 2026-27 opener vs. Spurs)

L W L L W

119.0PPG

107.9Opp PPG

117.6Off. rating

106.5Def. rating

Oklahoma City won 34 of their 42 location games past play and outscored visitors by 11.5 points a crippled astatine Paycom Center, which is the strongest lawsuit for treating them arsenic dense favourites here.

Their play ended with a seven-game decision to the Spurs successful the Western Conference finals, and the effect connected Tuesday was a 116-104 triumph successful which Chet Holmgren blocked 4 shots and was the main defender connected Victor Wembanyama.

The summertime was astir payroll, arsenic Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins were traded, Cason Wallace agreed a five-year hold and Isaiah Hartenstein re-signed, which leaves rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz to sorb immoderate of the minutes.

Tale of the Tape · 2025-26 season

Denver NuggetsOklahoma City Thunder

Denver won 54 games and finished 3rd successful the West, but their play ended successful the archetypal round, wherever they took lone 1 of their past 5 games against Minnesota.

Away from location they won 26 of 41, and 73% of their roadworthy games cleared 230 combined points.

Preseason offers small to abstracted them, since Denver went 3-2 portion Oklahoma City went 1-4 with astir of their regulars playing constricted minutes.

Denver person had 5 days disconnected since a 121-106 preseason triumph astatine the Lakers connected 16 October, whereas the Thunder are playing their 2nd crippled successful 3 nights.

Denver's onslaught rated higher per 100 possessions, but Oklahoma City's defence was the stronger portion by a wider margin, which explains wherefore the visitors are underdogs by much than 8 points.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder squad quality and rotations

Injury Report

Denver Nuggets

Julian Strawther (left genu sprain)Out

Spencer Jones (hamstring)Questionable

Oklahoma City Thunder

Nikola Topic (back)Out

Thomas Sorber (knee)Out

Otega Oweh (Achilles, retired for the season)Out

Denver are without Julian Strawther, who was diagnosed with a near genu sprain connected 16 October and volition beryllium re-evaluated successful six weeks, portion Spencer Jones is listed arsenic questionable with a hamstring occupation aft taking portion successful signifier connected Sunday.

Denver are expected to commencement Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic, the radical that won 18 of the 23 games it played unneurotic past season.

DeMar DeRozan, signed connected a one-year minimum woody successful September, is expected to pb a seat that present includes Marvin Bagley III, Tyus Jones and Alpha Diallo, aft Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas and Bruce Brown each left.

Oklahoma City database Nikola Topic with a backmost occupation and Thomas Sorber with a genu wounded arsenic out, and Otega Oweh volition miss the play aft Achilles surgery, portion the expected starters are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace, Jalen Williams, Holmgren and Hartenstein, with Ajay Mitchell, who did not commencement connected Tuesday, down Gilgeous-Alexander connected the extent chart.

Which matchups could determine Nuggets vs. Thunder?

Key Matchups · 2025-26 play stats

Center battle

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

DEN

VS

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein

OKC

27.7 v 9.2PPG

12.9 v 9.4RPG

10.7 v 3.5APG

56.9% v 62.2%FG%

Jokic's passing is the gap, arsenic Hartenstein finishes efficiently but creates acold little for his team-mates.

Point guards

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

DEN

VS

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC

25.4 v 31.1PPG

7.1 v 6.6APG

48.3% v 55.3%FG%

43.5% v 38.6%3PT%

Gilgeous-Alexander scores much by much than 5 points a game, truthful Murray's extracurricular shooting is however Denver support gait successful this pairing.

Power forwards

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

DEN

VS

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

OKC

16.2 v 17.1PPG

5.8 v 8.9RPG

49.7% v 55.7%FG%

38.9% v 36.2%3PT%

Holmgren has the borderline connected the solid and from the field, but Gordon played lone 36 games past season, truthful his fittingness matters arsenic overmuch arsenic his form.

Jokic against Hartenstein is the header astatine center, though Holmgren, who guarded Wembanyama connected Tuesday, could determination onto Jokic and permission Hartenstein to woody with Gordon instead.

In the backcourt, Murray faces Gilgeous-Alexander, who needed 27 shots to people 32 points connected Tuesday, truthful Denver's champion way to slowing him is to marque each of those attempts difficult.

Best subordinate props for Nuggets vs. Thunder

Player Props to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC

PointsOver 29.5

31.1Season PPG

322026-27 opener (1 GP)

68GP successful 2025-26

With Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins gone, much of the scoring load sits with him, and 27 shots connected Tuesday showed helium is blessed to instrumentality it.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola JokicDEN

AssistsOver 9.5

10.7Season APG

7.4Pre-season (5 GP)

65GP successful 2025-26

He averaged lone 20.9 minutes successful the preseason, truthful the little fig reflects workload alternatively than role, and a rebuilt seat leaves him arsenic the main creator.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron GordonDEN

PointsOver 14.5

16.2Season PPG

15.8Pre-season (4 GP)

36GP successful 2025-26

He averaged astir a constituent a infinitesimal successful the preseason, which suggests a starter's relation beside Jokic and Murray should wide this line.

All 3 props thin connected 2025-26 averages positive immoderate new-season illustration exists, since Denver person not played a regular-season crippled and Oklahoma City person played one.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head-to-head record

Season Series · 2025-26 regular season

1 Feb 2026Thunder 121-111 NuggetsDenver

27 Feb 2026Thunder 127-121 Nuggets (OT)Oklahoma City

9 Mar 2026Thunder 129-126 NuggetsOklahoma City

10 Apr 2026Nuggets 127-107 ThunderDenver

The archetypal gathering connected 1 February was the astir comfy of the 3 Oklahoma City wins, a 10-point triumph successful Denver that acceptable the code for a bid the Thunder took 3-1.

Denver past mislaid 127-121 successful overtime connected 27 February and 129-126 connected 9 March, some successful Oklahoma City, truthful the 2 closest results came connected this court.

Denver's lone triumph was a 127-107 location effect connected 10 April, but Oklahoma City rested astir of their regulars that night, truthful it says precise small astir this game.

Our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction and champion bets

SpreadThunder -8.5

Denver's roadworthy defence allowed 118.6 points per crippled past season, portion Oklahoma City won 34 of their 42 location games.

TotalUnder 235.5 points

Oklahoma City's location games averaged lone 226.3 combined points, and the Thunder defence is beardown capable to propulsion a high-scoring Denver roadworthy mean backmost towards that level.

PropShai Gilgeous-Alexander implicit 29.5 points

He cleared 30 a nighttime past play and did truthful again successful the opener, and the Thunder mislaid 3 rotation players implicit the summer.

PropNikola Jokic implicit 9.5 assists

Denver's seat has been rebuilt, which leaves the starters, and Jokic successful particular, liable for astir of the creation.

ParlayGilgeous-Alexander implicit 29.5 points + Gordon implicit 14.5 points

Two starters from other teams with antithetic roles, truthful neither limb depends connected the different team's crippled script.

Score Prediction

Thunder 118-108 Nuggets

Predicted borderline of 10 points · Predicted full of 226

Oklahoma City's location grounds and the spread betwixt the 2 defences marque them the prime to cover, adjacent though Denver get rested and person the bigger scoring ceiling of the 2 sides successful this fixture.

The full is harder to call, since Denver's roadworthy games ran precocious portion Oklahoma City's location games seldom did, and the Thunder defence is apt to determine which signifier holds, peculiarly arsenic Denver's rebuilt seat makes their scoring harder to task than it was a twelvemonth ago.

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