Construction on Ottawa-Montreal high-speed rail leg would spur 'modest economic stimulus': PBO

A new report from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer looks at the expected costs of the proposed Alto high speed rail project, and the expected economic benefits from construction of the Ottawa-Montreal segment. Photo by SUPPLIED

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The Ottawa-Montreal leg of the proposed high speed rail line spanning Toronto to Quebec City is expected to add up to 9,000 jobs by the fifth year of construction and provide a “modest economic stimulus,” according to the federal budget watchdog.

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In a report released Thursday, Oct. 1, the parliamentary budget officer (PBO) estimated construction on that portion of the line would raise real GDP by about $1.8 billion in 2029, the first year, increasing to $2 billion by 2033.

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If the project goes ahead, the Ottawa-Montreal leg would be the first portion built and would create 4,300 jobs in the region during the first year of construction, increasing to 9,000 jobs in year five, according to the report.

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The Ottawa-Montreal stretch is expected to be “relatively straightforward,” the report said, as it would cut across the lowlands surrounding the Ottawa River.

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“Except for the potential tunnel in Montréal, its terrain is broadly comparable to that encountered by European rail lines crossing relatively flat countryside,” the report added.

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The PBO estimated the cost of the entire project at between $75 and $113 billion, projecting both a higher floor and ceiling than the government’s own estimate of $60 to $90 billion.

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The analysis, which responds to a request from the Commons committee on national finance, is based on a review of international high–speed rail projects as well as “assumed characteristics” of the proposed Canadian route.

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“This report provides Parliament with an independent assessment of the potential construction costs and economic impacts associated with Alto’s high-speed rail project, as one of the largest infrastructure projects ever proposed in Canada,” PBO Annette Ryan said in a news release.

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Alto’s cost estimate for each kilometre of track, with an upper threshold of $106 million per kilometre, would fall near the middle of a sample of nearly 100 high-speed rail projects from around the world.

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The fully-electrified rail line would eventually span thousands of kilometres from Toronto to Quebec City with stops in Peterborough, Ottawa, Laval, Montréal and Trois-Rivières. The PBO report is based on a projected length of 850 kilometres.

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Trains are expected to reach speeds of up to 300 km/h, and the government claims the new line would cut VIA Rail’s current travel times in half.

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Alto, the Crown corporation leading the project, is working with a multinational group of companies comprising AtkinsRéalis, Air Canada, CDPQ Infra, SYSTRA Canada, Keolis Canada and SNCF Voyageurs.

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Analysis excludes Kingston stop

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Since the announcement, many landowners along the proposed corridor have vocally opposed the project, raising concerns about the destruction and expropriation of rural land.