Colby Cosh: Is Alberta’s separatist movement already waning?

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It confused me a little to see little groups of Alberta separatists heading to a rally with flags, blue hockey sweaters, and posters at the Legislature grounds last weekend. The event, one supposes, was timed to coincide closely with Alberta’s Sept. 1 birthday as a Canadian province, but isn’t that when all our troubles began? The Oui side of October’s independence referendum used the rally to launch their campaign and emphasize the need to get out the vote, but the sympathetic Western Standard reported a turnout of around 1,000, including some federalist counter-protesters. Past separatist events at the Legislature have been much larger than this; is the cause of secession not catching on?

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Research Co.’s new poll, assuming for the moment that any poll at all is worthy of any recognition in the year 2026, finds that 26 per cent of Albertans harbour some support for the province becoming an independent country. I would say that’s a pretty decent number for the separatists, a base from which they might hope to work towards getting a third of the vote in the actual referendum. But when Albertans are polled on the actual ballot question — should the Alberta government “commence the legal process” to have a binding referendum on separation? — the “Yes” option doesn’t do better; it does worse, losing 22 per cent to 74.

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Is it just me, or is this just a tad paradoxical? The separatist strategy is bound to emphasize that a “Yes” vote in the actual referendum would help keep the door to independence open and maximize Alberta’s ability to exert political pressure on Ottawa. In a non-binding referendum like the one now approaching, one would expect to see extra voters who are close to the fence about independence (or union with the Americans) but who intend to vote “Yes” strategically without actually wanting Alberta to exit Confederation.

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Instead, there appear to be some separation sympathizers who intend to vote “No” and perhaps extinguish active separation talk for a decade or two. This serves to remind us that this is in fact a perfectly rational position! Any native Albertan my age is bound to have joked around and fantasized at times about separation. It is certainly possible to have hopes for independence as a long-term project, perhaps one supported by a proper political party and an ideologically diverse cultural apparatus, rather than something that comes about through an ephemeral democratic shortcut.

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It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who wants to delay political action until the executive branch of the United States gets over its mood of belligerence and rediscovers, or is shown, the rule of law. It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who wants to wait and see whether an Albertan Liberal prime minister can follow through on reversing the gormless tendencies of the Trudeau Era. (Note: the poll gives that PM a slightly higher trust score than it does to the Opposition Leader, who is also an Albertan. Remember when the West wanted in?) It’s possible to be an Alberta separatist who just doesn’t like the dubious weirdos who have taken charge of the cause right now. And Alberta separatists should not have trouble understanding this: it’s the same pervasive, somewhat annoying and difficult nuance that has existed and manifested in Quebec for 60 years.

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National Post

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