CHARLEBOIS: Lower interest rates mean fuller plates for school lunches

Published Sep 02, 2024  •  Last updated 0 minutes ago  •  3 minute read

A girl takes out her lunch box at school. (Getty Images)

Due to mixed economic spending data released by Statistics Canada over the summer, the Bank of Canada is expected to reduce its overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, with further cuts anticipated in October and December.

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If the overnight rate decreases by 0.5% by October, a family with a $500,000 mortgage with a variable rate amortized over 25 years could see their payments decrease by up to $1,800 over 12 months.

This reduction could equate to the purchase of 246 to 345 school lunches, making a significant difference for parents.

As the back-to-school season approaches, parents across the country are once again faced with the challenge of preparing daily lunches for their children. Fortunately, this year’s grocery landscape offers some relief compared to the financial pressures felt last year.

While certain items have experienced price increases, others have become more affordable, allowing families to pack nutritious and varied lunches without breaking the bank.

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With a bit of planning, navigating this school year’s lunch needs can be a smoother process.

Protein remains a cornerstone of a balanced lunch, and the meat aisle presents a varied picture.

While beef products, such as stewing cuts and ground beef, have seen price hikes, prices are expected to drop this fall. Poultry — including chicken breasts, thighs, and drumsticks — has become more affordable in recent months, making them an excellent option for cost-effective, protein-rich sandwiches, wraps, or salads.

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However, turkey may be a different story as supplies might be lower this year.

In the dairy section, prices for milk and yogurt have risen modestly but remain within reach for most households. Adding a small container of yogurt or a cheese stick to a lunchbox is still a nutritious and economical choice, ensuring that children receive necessary calcium and protein throughout the day.

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Fresh Produce: Balancing Costs and Nutrition

The produce aisle, often a source of both nutrients and financial strain, presents both challenges and opportunities this year.

While staple fruits like apples and oranges have seen modest price increases, other popular options, such as grapes and strawberries, are more affordable. The increased domestic production of these fruits and a strong Canadian dollar, supported by a weaker American dollar, are expected to help keep prices lower in the produce section.

This trend allows parents to pack a variety of fruits in their children’s lunches, keeping them both nutritious and budget-friendly.

Vegetable prices also vary. Items like lettuce and cucumbers have become less expensive, making them ideal for sandwiches or as healthy sides. However, the price of certain vegetables, including onions and sweet potatoes, has risen.

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Parents can strike a balance by mixing more affordable produce with smaller portions of the pricier items, ensuring a variety of nutrients without overspending.

Pantry Staples: Reliable Foundations for School Lunches

Pantry staples are essential for school lunches, and this year, they offer some stability compared to the volatility experienced last year.

While some items have seen price increases, others, such as canned beans, pasta sauce, and cooking oils, have remained stable or even decreased in cost. Canned tuna and salmon are also expected to be more affordable, making them excellent choices for sandwiches.

Frozen foods provide convenience and flexibility for busy mornings. Prices for some frozen vegetables and fruits, such as strawberries, have decreased, making them an attractive option for quick and nutritious additions to lunchboxes. The stronger Canadian dollar will likely continue to benefit consumers this fall.

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These frozen items can be used in smoothies or packed directly into lunchboxes, where they can double as a cooling element.

While the back-to-school season always brings some level of adjustment, the grocery landscape this year is more favourable. Depending on your location, prices may vary, but these nationwide trends suggest that with a bit of foresight, families can manage their lunch preparations more effectively, making this school year a little easier on both wallets and minds.

— Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and Co-Host of The Food Professor Podcast.

Methodology for graphic/study: The sample included over 10,000 price points for various food items, capturing the most affordable options across different regions of the country. This data was integrated into a forecasting model using machine learning to predict prices over the next three months. The food categories are based on Statistics Canada’s list of reference food products; however, some categories were not included due to a lack of data.

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